Won't Get Fooled Again

The Stripe Out worked pretty well (Michigan Photography)

Change, it had to come

We knew it all along

We were liberated from the fold, that's all

And the world looks just the same

And history ain't changed

'Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

--"Won't Get Fooled Again" by The Who, the lead single from their 1971 album Who's Next.

It was always going to be like this.  There was no possibility it would be any different.  When you have watched enough football, you know that if you keep leaving the door open to a team, to a program, that thrives on making you pay for leaving that door open, you might fail.

We can argue that this is karma.  We can argue that Tim Lester avenged his alma mater.  We can say that this is just a fitting Final Destination-style fate, served up slightly sooner than perhaps this kind of thing shows up.  But let us not lose sight of this: it took a remarkable number of breaks going Iowa's way on that final drive to put themselves in position to win it at the horn.

But the result of this game was not just the events of the final drive.  It was Michigan not finishing drives on offense (a failed 4th and 1 where I really want to question the choice for Bryce to jump the pile when about three other things might work, the red zone interception); it was kicking off to an Iowa return man and never touching him; it was killing drives with penalties, AGAIN.  This game was not lost on the last drive or the last play; it was lost by a thousand cuts over the course of the previous 59:58.

That said, the final drive was spectacular and novelistic.  There were a couple of times when Michigan was inches away from a game-sealing interception.  Iowa kept getting passes caught off tips; how does that happen?  Michigan broke up an Iowa pass on third and 12 from Iowa's 40, only to see Zeke Berry get called for a late hit out of bounds.  Iowa then threw two straight incompletions to set up 3rd and 10 from the Michigan 45.  Iowa got it down to the Michigan 16 with two seconds left when John Henry Daley went down with an injury, stopping the clock.  Daley doesn't go down; Iowa can't spike the ball, so they're running a fire-drill final play, and maybe they get it, but no, Iowa essentially got a timeout to call its best play, and to their credit, executed it perfectly.  Iowa wins 20-19, and Michigan is left only to lament what might have been.

The sad thing is that the general consensus was that Michigan looked better than it had in any of the three previous games.  Sometimes, the other team just gets a couple of breaks that seem utterly ridiculous in the moment, but it's confirmation bias.  We tend to overlook "luck" for our preferred teams because that's just supposed to happen that way.  Michigan lost a game, a game where they had a 92.7% post-game win expectancy according to SP+.   Brush it off, get ready for a Minnesota team that looks a little better than expected, and retain the Jug.  That's all you can do.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 19-20 is NOT a Scorigami!  It happened in 1957 Illinois.
• 111,126 attended the game, the 64th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.
• Michigan moves to 45-16-4 all-time against the University of Iowa.
• Michigan moves to 10-2-0 all-time on September 26, the other loss being against 1959 Missouri.
• Michigan moves to 14-5-1 when scoring exactly 19 points (the most recent 19-point effort was 2022 Illinois, which is the Money Moody game).
• Michigan moves to 26-20-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition (This is the first time Michigan has allowed 20 points in a game since...2025 Maryland).
• Michigan has lost 26 games all-time by exactly 1 point, most recently in the 2016 Orange Bowl against Florida State.

Wounded

Dr. Blitz held office hours again this weekend after a recent sabbatical. (Kirthmon F. Dozier, Detroit Free Press)

First things first, this should not have worked.  Under any realistic understanding of how the game of football works, Michigan should not have won this game.  The offense looked disjointed, at best, and I'm trying to be kind there.  Nothing worked.  Even the stuff that should have worked, didn't work, well, OK, save that one "Chuck it to Neko" play.  No rhyme, no reason, and the fiesta of punts and missed field goals should portend one's doom.

Except for one thing.  Iowa was equally committed to the same levels of offensive ineptitude but with way more sack-based yardage loss and ill-timed interception throwing (OK, on a strictly technical level, there really isn't a good time to throw an interception, but all three of Stewart's picks were in Michigan territory, killing even the possibility of a field goal attempt in the swirling winds of Michigan Stadium.)  But the crossing routes again proved to be a Don Brown kryptonite, with Iowa seemingly getting a first down every time they ran one.  All of this would bring us to the final 91-second sequence.

Iowa got the ball back on their own 43 after a re-punt because there were offsetting penalties on the kick (Iowa had two, Michigan had one, somehow that is offsetting, even if math suggests otherwise.)  Two quick incompletions and a two-yard gain on third down left Iowa with fourth and eight.  Michigan Stadium gets loud and Iowa...finds a crossing route for 11 yards to the Michigan 44 and a new set of downs, with 57 seconds left.  Three incompletions in 8 seconds left Iowa now with 4th and 10 with 37 seconds left.  On the snap, Jordan Glasgow and Khaleke Hudson went in full heat-seeking pursuit of Nate Stanley and had him in the grasp almost 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage, only to see Stanley throw a weak left-handed pass that somehow found Tyler Goodson who started making people miss.  Panic fell over the stadium, as Goodson had room to maneuver.  It felt like the stupidest possible way to lose, but thankfully the young Dax Hill understood this, yelled "not today" to the football gods, and made a tackle for loss and saw the ball go back to Michigan on downs.  One knee later and the game was over.

A win is a win. Which is something you say when your team wins ugly.  But Michigan really needed this win, which, of course, will be immediately devalued by the national press because of how bad Iowa looked, and Iowa was overrated because who had Iowa played really?  It's going to happen because it's what always happens.  But things need to get fixed this week on the offensive side.  Figure something out, because you can't keep telling the defense it's all on them week in, week out.

Let's see what happens in Champaign.

Michigan Defense Theater Experiment 1109: "Girl In Gold Pants"

THEME SONG

In the not too distant future, Saturday A.D.

There was a guy named Jordan, not too different from you or me

He worked at Schembechler Institute, just another face in a maize jumpsuit

He did a good job cleaning up the place, but his bosses kinda liked him so they made him play in space

(Curse you GERG!)

We'll send him speedy runners, the best we can find

He'll have to stop, tackle them all as we monitor his mind

Now keep in mind he can't control when the games begin or end

He'll try to keep his sanity with the help of his D-Line friends...

D-LINE ROLL CALL!

Martin! (I'm Captain!)

Heininger! (Left side!)

Van Bergen! (Where've you been?)

Rooooooooooooooooh! (I'm sophomore!)

If you're wondering how he eats and breathes and other science facts

He's got a meal card and it's set on earth so you can really just relax

For Michigan Defense Theater 3000.

FADE IN TO:

INT. SATELLITE OF YOST

JORDAN

Hi, everyone and welcome to the Satellite of Yost. I'm Jordan Kovacs and since I'm out with a bad knee, I'm helping the D-line make motivational bracelets to keep focus on the field. Mine says "WWERD" for "What would Ed Reed do?" Coach Mattison says I could be like him, if I could run a lot faster. What does yours say, Van Bergen?

VAN BERGEN

Mine says "WWTGD" for "What would Tom Gholston do?" I then try and do the opposite.

JORDAN

Well, that's refreshingly bitter. Roh, what's with the bracelet with all the W's?

ROH

It stands for "What would Wade Wilson, Wes Welker, Warren Wells, Wesley Walls, Will Witherspoon, and Whizzer White do?"

HEININGER

I don't think Coach Hoke would like that bracelet. A lot of those guys didn't play for Michigan.

MAGIC VOICE

[sounds a lot like Evan Caminker] I'd like to take a moment to remind the reader that this script is a parody not based on actual events, and the people appearing in this script are public figures.

JORDAN

Thanks, magic voice. Uh-oh, the Mads are calling.

JORDAN pushes the red button.

Out of Time

"We didn't deserve to beat Michigan State. But this one, we played tough, we played hard, we played 60 minutes. We just lost." – David Moosman

I am convinced, if Michigan recovers the onside kick, they win that football game. If there's anything out there that puts two more minutes on the clock for Denard Robinson, Michigan wins. The offensive line was capably handling the Iowa DL, as they (mostly) had been all game. And the defense was doing a solid job of it's own. I mean, look at how Iowa scored.

How did Iowa score?

1. Kick return starts Iowa's second drive on their own 43. Huge coverage bust where Mike Williams bites on Moeaki's fake that he's staying in to block and blitzes Stanzi.

2. Tate Forcier INT. Iowa begins the drive on the Michigan 19. The defense holds them to 8 yards and a FG.

3. Tate Forcier fumble gives Iowa the ball at their own 46. Stanzi completed one big pass for 22 yards to McNutt and then got nothing. Iowa kicked a 41-yard FG.

4. Zoltan punt. Iowa starts on their own 21. Stanzi converts one 3rd and 6 with a perfectly-thrown 33-yard pass, then an absurd 3rd and 24 to Johnson-Koulianos, who's just barely got a step on Donovan Warren. Herbstreit blames this in part on Williams being slow to get back in coverage. Iowa covers the remaining 9 yards for the TD.

5. Zoltan punt. Iowa starts on their own 24, and begins gashing the Michigan rush defense. The defense then stops the run and forces two incompletions, holding Iowa to another FG.

6. Zoltan punt from the Michigan 1 is caught at the Iowa 38, but the coverage team allows a 20-yard return. Moeaki immediately gets loose on a similar bust (don't know who was victimized there) for a TD.

So what does that look like? Three of Iowa's scoring drives start due to Michigan turnovers. One is Zoltan punting from the 1, giving Iowa a short field. On drives that started behind their own 40, Iowa got 10 points, and they had to make a ridiculous 3rd and 24 to get 7 of them. 14 points came on epic coverage busts. OK, OK, Iowa did drive down to the 1 after starting on their own 33 once, but that relied on the Mathews fumble for 33 of those yards. Iowa had 15 drives. They started (on average) from their own 38 and went 25.5 yards per drive. The defense held them to 367 yards and 30 points and scored 7 points of their own. They crushed the Iowa rushing game (2.7 YPC), got burned on 4 big pass plays, and showed signs of actual competence.

So, uh, how did Michigan score?

I'm glad you asked, alternate me.

1. Donovan Warren 40-yard pick 6.

2. Iowa FG is answered with a 12-play, 72-yard TD drive.

3. Hemingway returns an Iowa punt 7 yards to the Michigan 43. Michigan embarks on a 10-play, 57-yard TD drive featuring 7 Brandon Minor rushes, including the TD, and only one (4-yard) pass.

4. Michigan gets an extra 15 on an Iowa personal foul, starting the drive at their own 40. Denard Robinson throws a couple of completions, but mostly keeps it on the ground during the 11-play TD drive.

Michigan's TD drives took a lot of plays to develop (12 plays, 10 plays, 11 plays). They had another 5-play, 51-yard drive halted by a Minor fumble. They were able to move the ball on the Iowa defense, but not in large chunks. I'm no expert, but that gives Iowa a lot of chances to stop you when you don't have good field position. There were only 2 (of 13) underachieving drives, for me. Michigan got the ball at their own 37 and 39 and punted away on both of those. Otherwise, Michigan started (on average) from their own 28. They were dominant in running the football. The big, overwhelming problem was giving the ball away. You can't overcome 5 turnovers, even if you get a pick 6, without being much, much better than the other team. And the thing that Michigan was doing well, running the ball, became a non-factor on the last drive due to the clock situation.

What people are going to remember most about this game is that last drive, with 1:30 on the clock and Tate Forcier on the bench, and that's a shame. It's not Forcier on the bench that killed Michigan, it's the five turnovers. Iowa had good starting field position all day, thanks to Michigan's generosity. They converted that into 30 points on 367 yards of offense. And while most of those turnovers came in the middle of the field, they stopped 4 Michigan drives.

And about that Forcier thing: Something happened out there that made Rodriguez keep him off the field. Even before the benching, there were several times where Rodriguez got in his face. After the fumble, after the three-and-out from the Michigan 1, after Tate's final series. Something was wrong out there. I'm assuming Forcier wasn't making his reads correctly or listening to Rodriguez's coaching. He tried to simply walk away after the fumble, which is a dumb idea (This goes for you too, JT Floyd). I don't know if this is a Hoosiers moment like Greg thinks it is, but I don't think it's the worst call in the history of sports to bench Forcier. Yeah, Robinson looked like a panicked freshman on the last pass. Yeah, I'd rather see Forcier out there. But if it means we're a better team in the long run, I'll take it. This team has too many weaknesses to be a Big Ten title contender, so I'll trade a loss today for another win next year.