This Song is Over

Tommy Carr's fourth-down pass to Salesi Moa in overtime falls just short, and Michigan loses another winnable game.  (Rachel Leggett)

The song is over

It's all behind me

I should have known it 

She tried to find me

 --"This Song is Over" by The Who, from their 1971 album Who's Next

There was an argument for yesterday being a Michigan win before toe met leather.  It wasn't even an outrageous one.  This Indiana team, while still excellent and propelled by a top-shelf defense, isn't as good as last year's national champion.  Josh Hoover might still be dinged up after last week's Ohio State game (despite an availability report that revealed nothing on Indiana's side), and Michigan still has an exceptionally good defense.  Keep it close, maybe get some turnover luck, and Michigan could pull off an upset.

All of this ignored one critical factor: Jason Beck's utterly incomprehensible offensive game plan.  While Michigan did turn the ball over twice in the first half, an exceedingly unfortunate fumble off a failed option by Tommy Carr and a freshman throw into double coverage resulting in a tip drill interception both gave Indiana the ball inside the Michigan 30, but Michigan's defense held and limited Indiana to a pair of field goals.  Michigan went into the locker room, getting the ball back on the second-half kick, down just 6-0 despite having no sustained drive longer than 41 yards.  This game still felt like one that could be won.

The song is over
I'm left with only tears
I must remember
Even if it takes a million years

Michigan put together a reasonable, long, sustained drive to start the fourth, eventually setting up shop with first-and-goal on the ten.  It hadn't been pretty, but Tommy Carr found his receivers downfield, and Michigan's backs got the yards they needed to keep the drive moving; it worked, including a seven-yard pass to Hoffman that set Michigan up with third-and-goal from inside the one-yard line.  You can call a lot of things here, but mostly, why not run Jordan Marshall up the middle?  Nope.  A naked bootleg for the freshman quarterback resulted in a field-goal attempt...that was missed.  It perfectly encapsulated everything that has gone wrong on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Indiana's ensuing drive was cut short by a brilliant pick by Zeke Berry, who was forced out of bounds at the IU 13-yard line, with an entire stadium wishing he could have caught it because it might have been the only way Michigan could have gotten into the end zone today.  This was borne out by a three-play sequence of confusion and despair that ended with a successful Michigan field goal.  Michigan entered the red zone twice in the third quarter and left with three points.  But they were still in it.

And now, a data interlude.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

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— Bill Radjewski (@collegefootballdata.com) October 25, 2026 at 10:25 AM

The fourth-quarter punt fiesta left the stakes at Michigan needing 57 yards at the end of the game to win the football game, or at least tie it up with a field goal.  Thanks to a brilliant improvisation by Tommy Carr on third and ten, Channing Goodwin went 24 yards to the Indiana 24; Michigan would, once again, be set up first-and-goal on the IU ten as we came out of the two-minute timeout.  Kudzal's initial six-yard run put it at second-and-four, but Marshall's one-yard run gave the Wolverines essentially a two-point conversion to win.  Once again, Tommy Carr was sacked, Michigan let the clock run down, took a timeout, kicked the field goal, and sent the game to overtime, where everyone knew what would happen.  Michigan's defense finally collapsed, and Michigan's offense once again looked utterly confused by the idea of a red zone possession.  Indiana wins in Ann Arbor for the first time since 1967, and Michigan looks at a regular season where 6-6 would be the best-case scenario most can envision.   

I'm not a "Fire X" person, but Bill's embedded thread above shows that Michigan is wasting, utterly wasting, an elite defense, and that, to me, is maddening.  Even acknowledging the good fortune of WMU being able to cut the other way, Michigan is roughly one incompletion and one successful three-yard run away from 6-1 in a college football year where we might have to accept the idea that no one is good.  But this is where Michigan is now, and it's not a fun place to be for anyone.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 6-13 is NOT a Scorigami!  It's not even a Scorigami this century against a team from Indiana (2012 Notre Dame).  The 1934 Northwestern game also had this result.
• 111,276 attended the game, the 56th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.  (Lots of IU fans in the crowd.)
• Michigan falls to 62-12-0 all-time against Indiana University.  (Remarkable fact: Indiana's three wins over Michigan in the 2020s are more than they had in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s combined.)
• Michigan falls to 15-7-0 all-time on October 24, following up Indiana's 1987 win over Michigan with this one.
• Michigan falls to 13-27-4 when scoring exactly 6 points (the most recent 6-point effort was 2013 Michigan State.  That was Michigan rushes for -48 yards).
• Michigan falls to 47-13-1 all-time when allowing 13 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 36 games all-time by exactly 7 points, most recently the 2019 Penn State game with the comeback that fell short.

Substitute

Going against family traditions, Tommy Carr understands the importance of the quarterback run game.
(Rachel Leggett)

But I'm a substitute for another guy

I look pretty tall, but my heels are high

The simple things you see are all complicated

I look pretty young, but I'm just back-dated, yeah

--"Substitute" by The Who from the 1966 single of the same name. 

The stadium in game host asked people to stand up based on what number Michigan game they were attending, and I couldn't actually figure out the right number, beyond the fact that it was more than one.  In that time, it was hard to remember a half of football played by Michigan that was more frustrating, more emotionally draining that what Michigan put on the field on offense in the first half.  Penn State ran a long march drive for most of the first quarter that Michigan did well to hold to a field goal, and then Michigan had a 9 play, 32 yard drive that ended in a punt, a three and out, a four play drive that ended in an interception when the ball bounced off a falling Andrew Marsh and into the hands of Penn State's Tracy who was the trailing defender, a three and out that went backwards, and a drive with some promise (thanks to a DPI call on the Nittany Lions) only to see Penn State's Josiah Zayas make one of the more athletic picks you'll ever see, a second interception for Bryce Underwood.  The homecoming crwod could be described as restless as best, and somewhere closer to incandescent with rage.

And now you dare to look me in the eye
Those crocodile tears are what you cry
It's a genuine problem, you won't try
To work it out at all, just pass it by, pass it by   

When you looked at the overall tone and tenor of Jason Beck's press conference this week, there's a reading of it is that he was saying that he was that his system would be working if just the players would buy in.  Which, well, that might be true, but I am not sure that is what you should be saying publicly.  The conversations around me were largely "Will it be Tommy for the second half?" followed by "Would it make a difference?" "Could we play two quarterbacks in a rotation" (I kiboshed this immediately by citing 1999 Michigan State.) But something had to change, what would it be.

The crowd pop was remarkable.  It didn't hurt that Tommy's first pass was a nice toss to JJ Buchanan down the seam for a first down, but the next three downs were more of the same.  It's just that Rocco Becht bailed Michigan out by throwing a pick to Rod Moore (which was also athletic as hell), and Michigan solved it's problems by having Bryson Kuzdzal break one for 43 yards and a score, and suddenly, the sun broke through the clouds, all of Michigan's problems were solved, Tommy had changed everything. Except, he hadn't.  Michigan cashed in on a turnover, something Penn State failed to do on their two takeaways.  Michigan got an explosive run play, something that Penn State's defense has been giving up left and right all year.  Tommy did not solve everything, he just became a symbol of the changing vibes.  And maybe that was all that mattered...for now.

(Substitute) Your lies for fact
(Substitute) I see right through your plastic mac
(Substitute) I try going forward but my feet walk back
(Substitute) My fine-looking suit is really made out of sack

Becht's second pick, this one handled by Chris Bracy, who absolutely deserved a game ball for his day yesterday, set up a drive that could make the case that something was better because Tommy was at the helm, including a foreshadowing 22-yard scramble for a touchdown that was overturned as being down at the one-yard line.  Carr hit Hogan Hansen as Beck remembered he has tight ends on the roster.  Savion Hiter finally showed some of the flashes of who he was supposed to be coming out of high school. Was Beck just calling an offensive sequence that made more sense?  Perhaps, but Michigan was executing it and that matters.  Michigan up 14-3 and the vibes were immensely improved in the building.  

Penn State did long march for a touchdown (and a smart two-point conversion) to make it 14-11, and suddenly there was too much time on the clock and everyone wanted a response from the Michigan offense, only to see it go three-and-out again.  But the defense forced a three-and-out, only to return with a four-and-out which was disappointing, because the first play was a 41 yard run by Hiter to get Michigan out of the shadow of their end zone, but Michigan pinned Penn State inside their own ten.  Time for the defense to show up, and it did.  Penn State had moved it out to their own 25 when Chris Bracy, looking like a heat-seeking missile, locked on to Becht, stripped the ball as he was wrapping up, causing a fumble, recovered by Enow Etta.  Michigan was now set up in the red zone and was shooting itself in the foot, only to see Tommy Carr take a broken read option, cut back to the center, and run it in for the score, thrilling his grandfather up in the suites and bringing a sigh of relief to the Big House.  Penn State did move the ball well on a two minute drive, aided by a couple of speculative penalties that kept the drive alive, but Michigan recovered the ensuing onside kick, got the necessary first down, and it was over, Michigan wins, not necessarily saving the season, but definitely preventing it from sliding further into the abyss for at least one more week. 

I don't know what Whitt does this week against Indiana.  Does he send Bryce back out?  Does he say Tommy earned the right to start?  Does he find some weird third thing?  But in the strange new world of college football in the 2020s, Michigan welcomes...defending national chapion Indiana in an attempt to save Michigan's last longstanding streak, having not lost to the Hoosiers in Ann Arbor since 1967.  I feel better about Michigan's chances going into this week than I did before Saturday's result, but not by much.  But for now, Tommy Carr did his job and did it well, and that was enough for Saturday.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• Win 1,025
• 21-18 IS a Scorigami!  21-11 would have also been, as 14-11.
• 110,731 attended the game, the 94th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.  (Fall Break certainly did not help matters in the student section.)
• Michigan moves to 18-10-0 all-time against Pennsylvania State University.
• Michigan moves to 16-7-0 all-time on October 17, reversing the result of the most recent October 17 game in 2015 (IYKYK).
• Michigan moves to 43-14-2 when scoring exactly 21 points (the most recent 21-point effort was 2025 Purdue.  Last season was worse than you remember).
• Michigan moves to 9-3-0 all-time when allowing 18 points to the opposition (This is the first time Michigan has allowed 18 points in a game since...2024 Arkansas State).
• Michigan wins its 16th straight Homecoming game.  It is now 99-27 on Homecoming.
• Michigan has won 52 games all-time by exactly 3 points, most recently 2025 Nebraska with Biff at the helm.

We're Not Gonna Take It

Staehling's pick six was the one really nice thing about this game (Michigan photography) 

We're not gonna take it, never did and never will

We're not gonna take it, gonna break it, gonna shake it

Let's forget it better still

--"We're Not Gonna Take It" by The Who, from their 1969 album Tommy 

This could have gone better.  It obviously could have gone much worse, but it definitely could have gone better.  The defense played lights out, considering they were basically getting their mail on the field in the second half.  Michigan has allowed no more than 20 points in any game this season, yet it's 3-2 because its offense cannot figure out its identity, what its quarterback can and cannot do, or whether its offensive line can block effectively for what it wants to do.

Michigan won't have the Jug back until at least 2029; a nearly 50-year winning streak in Minneapolis is over, and questions are mounting about the Whittingham era after just five games.  It's certainly frustrating to watch this team; there's not even a nobility in failing well. Just watching this team flail and fail to get out of its own way is frustrating.

The bye couldn't come at a better time.  But the campers are getting ready to tell Tommy why his camp is awful.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 14-20 is NOT a Scorigami!  It happened twice before, both times in 1958: Navy and Ohio State.
• 51, 012 attended the game.
• Michigan falls to 79-26-3 all-time against the University of Minnesota.
• Michigan moves to 16-4-0 all-time on October 3.  Weird note: Michigan has not played at home on October 3 since 1998.
• Michigan moves to 50-29-2 when scoring exactly 14 points (the most recent 14-point effort was 2019 Wisconsin, which is the Dylan McCafferty gets hit with a super targeting hit game).
• Michigan moves to 26-21-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition (This is the first time Michigan has allowed 20 points in a game since...last week).
• Michigan has lost 21 games all-time by exactly 6 points, most recently in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl against Texas Christian.