Light On

The end that was.

Would you believe me now if I told you I got caught up in a wave?

Almost gave it away

Would you hear me out if I told you I was terrified for days?

Thought I was gonna break

Oh, I couldn't stop it

Tried to slow it all down

Crying in the bathroom

Had to figure it out

With everyone around me saying

"You must be so happy now."

--"Light On" by Maggie Rogers, the final song written for her 2018 debut album Heard It In a Past Life

It was always going to end this way.  Not because we wanted it to be, not because we deserved it, but because it is the way it has been for nearly three decades.  Michigan has a hockey team good enough to make the Frozen Four, and, unless it shuts its opponent out, loses the national semi-final, usually in overtime.

Oh, if you keep reaching out

Then I'll keep coming back

And if you're gone for good

Then I'm okay with that

If you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

"Light On" is a dreadfully ironic choice of title and theme for a post about the conclusion of another hockey season that, like most do, ended with a loss.  All Michigan had to do was turn the (goal) light on one more time, and they would have assured the Big Ten its first NCAA men's hockey championship since 2007 and the first since the league began sponsoring men's hockey.  They took shot after shot after shot, all of varying quality, and at one point right before the bitter end, Michigan was outshooting Denver 52-25.  The consensus of the media, fans, and the Michigan team itself was that Michigan was largely the better team in the second period, third period, and both overtimes.  But as college hockey so frequently reminds us, the best team is not the one that plays the best over the course of the game, rather it is the one that finds a way to score more goals than it allows.  Yes, it is the entire point of the game: score at least one more goal than your opponent, and you are declared the winner.  Once again, Michigan, which by several metrics looked like the best and most complete team in the country over the course of a regular season, will not get to hang a banner honoring the completion of that journey.  There are no banners for "#1 NPI" after all.

And I am finding out

There's just no other way

That I'm still dancing at the end of the day

If you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

The natural tendency after a season-ending loss is a combination of sadness, regret, lamentation, bitterness, and doubt.  Perhaps because there were so many stats at the ready showing the futility of Michigan in the NCAA tournament since it won its ninth title in 1998, coupled with the frustration of a game that ended around 12:50 AM EDT, there seemed to be a lot of questioning by fans in the Michigan hockey hive on Bluesky as to why we do this to ourselves, invest emotionally in a team that seems to get up to within view of the summit, only to fall all the way down the mountain in a painful, but often predictable way.  

And do you believe me now that I always had the best intentions, babe?

Always wanted to stay

Can you feel me now that I'm vulnerable in oh-so-many ways?

Oh, and I'll never change

But we love it.  Hockey is the best because it is the worst.  Hockey shows you so many tremendously skilled things on any given night, coupled with exceptional physicality, that makes it so compelling to watch.  There is no other sport quite like it.  That the NCAA tournament is single-elimination does not make hockey bad; it just allows a significant amount of randomness to enter the sample.  As I explained to my son on Monday when he asked me before the men's basketball title game if I was more nervous about that game or Thursday (meaning the Frozen Four game), I said Thursday without hesitation.  He looked at me and asked why, and I explained that dozens of things have to go wrong for a team to lose a basketball game.  One thing and only one thing has to go wrong to lose a hockey game.  And I've seen it happen a dozen times and more.  Obviously, this is an oversimplification of an emotional truth.  One could easily argue that every shot Michigan took last night that didn't go in was something that went wrong, for instance.  But it doesn't feel that way when the overtime winning goal goes into the net for the opponent.  That's what went wrong; it was all over for another year.  

Oh, I couldn't stop it

Tried to figure it out

But everything kept moving

And the noise got too loud

With everyone around me saying

"You should be so happy now

Yes, let us acknowledge that it is understandable if folks outside the Michigan fandom would like to give us a bit of side-eye for being sad about this loss, given that Michigan won the men's basketball team, something so many of us deeply enjoyed and celebrated literally earlier this week.  We should be so happy now!  It's a valid argument.  I thoroughly enjoyed this year's men's basketball team and the title run was amazing and unforgettable.  But at the same time, Michigan hockey has always been my second-favorite Michigan sport, and it honestly might be my co-favorite with football.  Every spring for the past thirty years, I have geared up to watch Michigan make a run in the NCAA tournament, and after feeling very good about the two titles in three years at the start of that, the next quarter century, give or take, has been season after season of frustration in various ways, shapes, and forms.  That so many of those shapes and forms look similar, I think, is what makes it so challenging emotionally.  We're watching a new movie, but we recognize the tropes.  We know what the doombringer generally looks and sounds like, and we're just waiting for it to come.  But we want to believe it will be different because it can be different.  After all, it has been different.  But it hasn't been that way during the 21st century.  This is not a case for giving up or abandoning the thing you love; it's just acknowledging that it's not necessarily going to bring you the ultimate joy that you long for.  And maybe that's OK.  And maybe it isn't, but only you can make that choice.  

Oh, if you keep reaching out

Then I'll keep coming back

And if you're gone for good

Then I'm okay with that

And if you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

And I am finding out

There's just no other way

That I'm still dancing at the end of the day

If you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

Maggie Rogers might be my favorite musical artist whose entire output is from the 21st century.  In the decade since her Masterclass moment with Pharrell at NYU went viral, she has put out a significant amount of absolutely banger indie pop/folk/rock.  In a 2018 tweet, Maggie herself explained that "Light On" was a note to her fans and her friends and loved ones who supported her before and after her sudden fame, that she had to understand everything that had happened to her, how it had changed her, but also how it had not, and how that could alter relationships with people known and unknown.  The future is unknowable; all you can do is chart a course for yourself and hope that people will want to join you on that journey.  The past is not destiny any more than the future is predetermined.  Maybe next time will be different, because it can be different.  We'll leave the light on.

Next year in Washington.

It's a Good Life if You Don't Weaken

The past and the future together. (Patrick Barron)

When the colour of the night

And all the smoke for one life

Gives way to shaky movements

Improvisational skills

A forest of whispering speakers

Let's swear that we will

Get with the times

In a current health to stay

Let's get friendship right

Get life day-to-day

In the forget-yer-skates dream

Full of countervailing woes

Its diverse-as-ever seen

Proceeding on a need-to-know

In a face so full of meaning

As to almost make it glow

For a good life we just might have to weaken

And find somewhere to go

Go somewhere we're needed

Find somewhere to grow

Grow somewhere we're needed  

--"It's a Good Life if You Don't Weaken" by The Tragically Hip, the first single from the band's 2002 album In Violet Light

 It's almost charming to look back at my previous column and see the level of unknowingness in the final paragraph about the December that was about to transpire.  I am choosing not to recap it because if you're reading this, you're well-versed in a "December to Dismember."  But here we are, at the end of 2025, in a Citrus Bowl of a pair of blue-bloods that ABC even said in its opening, disappointed to not meet their standard.

I'm not even sure what there is to say about this game.  Cole Sullivan made some big plays, including forcing a turnover on an early Texas kick return, which led to a Bryce Underwood to Kendrick Bell TD that needed to be replay reviewed, but was ruled a touchdown.  Andrew Marsh looked good on kick return duty and made some nice catches in his Michigan debut in the #3 jersey.  Michigan even had a fourth quarter lead thanks to a Bryce scramble that made the pylon (which again, needed a replay review to confirm).

It's just that everything unraveled from there.  Bryce threw a pair of awful picks. The defense got home on Arch Manning only to whiff on the tackle, which allowed a drive to stay alive and Texas to take the lead. Everyone on the defense missed again on Arch, who scrambled for a 60-yard touchdown, things of that nature. 

In the words of Futurama:

When the colour of the night

And all the smoke in one life

Gives way to shaky movements

Improvisational skills

In the forest of whispering speakers

Let's swear that we will

Get with the times

In a current health to stay

Let's get friendship right

Get life day-to-day

In the forget-yer-skates dream

Full of countervailing woes

In diverse-as-ever scenes

Proceeding on a need-to-know

In a face so full of meaning

As to almost make it glow

For a good life we just might have to weaken

And find somewhere to go

Go somewhere we're needed

Find somewhere to grow

Grow somewhere we're needed

Find somewhere to go

Let's go somewhere we're needed

Find somewhere to grow

We grow where we are needed

'Cause in the forget-yer-skates dream

You can hang your head in woe

And this diverse-as-ever scene

Know which way to go

But, ultimately, none of this matters. This was the required denouement of a season that never felt right.  Which, admittedly, feels like curve-fitting based on facts now in evidence, but I see it more as explaining the vibes, which were papered over but rancid.  Wink will be gone.  There will be a new OC, there might be other new coaches, but the key thing is that the 2026 season will mark a chance to start over, with a coach who has plenty of experience but no ties to Michigan football.  It might completely implode, which, maybe that is the price of climbing to the apex of the college football world again, but even if it's just a coach who puts a team out there that no one is worried about the staff having some kind of embarrassing (or hideous) scandal (hopefully, again, if its in the walls, you have to make sure you fumigate) and hopefully a team that is focused on football.    Let's grow somewhere we're needed.  Until Western Michigan.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 41-27 IS a Scorigami!
  
• 47,361 were in attendance for the game (Michigan's smallest bowl game crowd since the Outback Bowl following the 2017 season against South Carolina).
  
  
• Michigan moves to 0-3-0 all-time against the University of Texas.  This is Michigan's third loss to Texas in the 2000s, each under a different head coach.
• Michigan falls to 2-3-0 all-time on December 31 (wins against UCLA in the 1981 Bluebonnet and 2024 Reliaquest.  It is Michigan's first non-CFP loss on NYE.)
  
  
• Michigan falls to 46-8-0 when scoring exactly 27 points.
• Michigan moves to 1-4-0 all-time when allowing 41 points to the opposition (including that Peach Bowl against Florida, and the Cowboys Classic against Alabama).
• Michigan has lost 23 games all-time by precisely 14 points, the most recent example being the 2024 Illinois game.

Courage (for Hugh MacLennan)

Let's give it up for the 'bones! (Michigan Athletics)

Watch the band through a bunch of dancers

Quickly, follow the unknown

With something more familiar

Quickly, something familiar

Courage, my word

It didn't come, it doesn't matter

--"Courage (for Hugh MacLennan)" by The Tragically Hip, the third single from the band's 1992 album Fully Completely

Look, I'm not saying I knew how this season was going to go before it started, but I reserved "Courage" for the Ohio State game because I knew it was going to be a loss.  I didn't want it to be, I certainly hoped it could be different, but there was just no way, academically, to see Michigan winning the fifth straight edition of The Game.  Courage, it didn't come; it doesn't matter.

I mean, there certainly was an initial glimmer of hope.  The big run from Marshall on the first drive.  A field goal.  A tremendous PBU by Zeke Berry and then a pick by Jyaire Hill, and suddenly, Michigan is in business, and it's another field goal.  You aren't beating Ohio State, particularly this Ohio State, with field goals.  Even holding Ohio State to a field goal seemed to bode well.  And then, just as suddenly, it didn't, and the rest was pretty much academic.

Courage, my word

It didn't come, it doesn't matter

Courage, your word

It didn't come, it doesn't matter

Courage, my word

It didn't come, it doesn't matter

Courage, it couldn't come at a worse time

Ohio State remains what it is and who it has been: America's most consistently successful college football program.  Michigan remains an elite, a blueblood, but one that has had more ups and downs than its archrival.  This season and the shape and form it took led to an inevitable result: people who never believed Sherrone was the guy from the drop now think they have evidence that Moore was the wrong choice.  Michigan should have been a playoff team in their mind, that Michigan had no excuses for losing to Ohio State (despite being down its starting running back, starting fullback, a starting safety, a starting linebacker, and a starting receiver in The Game), that Moore "doesn't have the juice."  Which is fine; they're welcome to that opinion, but I will disagree.  Because the problem is as simple as Jason Kirk of The Athletic laid it out about the coaching carousel: "There are no sure things out there, just coaches you're not mad at yet."  

"There is no simple explanation for anything important any of us do, and the human tragedy, or the human irony, consists in the necessity of living with the consequences of actions performed under the pressure of compulsions so obscure we do not and cannot understand them."

― Hugh MacLennan, The Watch that Ends the Night

As Tom MacInnes wrote about this song and this quote, "'Courage' is really a song about finding meaning for yourself and your life’s work, amid the cries of those who take you for granted." I think that's where I am, and where many of us are with Michigan football.  We began to take 2021-23 as the new normal, the standard forever, and it is challenging to take a step back, a step that is frequently inevitable in college football.  The problem is that Ohio State never takes that step back.  Your measuring stick is the only one that never does that, and that is both a challenge and an opportunity.  This isn't a Hoke backslide; this is a late 90s-early 2000s Carr team, very good but not great, but now in a landscape where more teams can match them.  Sherrone has some things to figure out. I don't think anyone has said anything different.  JB Brown has to go, Wink probably needs to move on, and there are some spots to fill in the portal.  For now, enjoy Orlando, beat Texas (probably, maybe Vandy). I mean, do we think ESPN is going to turn down a chance at that big of a helmet game for one of its non-playoff bowls?  Until then, enjoy the men's and women's basketball teams and the hockey team; we can have new and different anxieties, as a treat!

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 27-9 IS a Scorigami!
  
• 111,373 were in attendance for the game (the 49th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history, and the largest crowd of the 2020s).
  
  
• Michigan moves to 62-53-6 all-time against the Ohio State University.  This is Michigan's first loss to Ohio State in the 2020s, as some of you may know.
• Michigan falls to 1-4-0 all-time on November 29 (this was Michigan's first home game on November 29.  The first three were in Chicago, the fourth was in 2014 in Columbus, the end of the Hoke era.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 9-9-0 when scoring exactly 9 points (of Michigan's 18 games in which they have scored just 9 points, 6 have come against Ohio State).
• Michigan moves to 7-16-0 all-time when allowing 27 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 3 games all-time by precisely 18 points, the most recent example being the 2025 USC game, meaning two of the three have come this season.

Three Pistols

Marlin Klein hurdled a fool. (Michigan Athletics)

Well, Tom Thomson came paddling past

I'm pretty sure it was him

And he spoke so softly in accordance to the

Growing of the dim

He said, "I'll bring on a brand new renaissance

Because I think I'm ready

When I was shaking all night long

But my hands were steady"

--"Three Pistols" by The Tragically Hip from their 1991 album Road Apples

There isn't going to be much to this one today, because there really wasn't much to this game.  The game before The Game is always weird, because it is almost inevitably a trap game.  In 2021, 2023, and now 2025, Michigan went to College Park and took care of business, heading into the Ohio State game with the goal of an appearance in the Big Ten title game still on the table.  The most prominent theme of the game was that injuries tested the depth of the running back room (but 100 yards on 20 carries for Bryson Kuzdzal works, as does 71 yards on 8 carries from Tomas O'Meara in the fourth quarter), but really, there was not a lot of meat on this bone.  Maryland scored on its opening drive, only to give Michigan excellent field position after a failed surprise onside kick. The easiest way to explain it is that Hudson Hollenbeck was never called upon to punt in this one, and every drive entered Maryland territory.

The biggest concerns from the day were that Max Bredeson was seen on the sideline in crutches, which is troubling, and several key players were out (but were likely held out ahead of The Game).  Michigan handled its business, surpassed last year's win total, and likely clinched a spot in the Citrus Bowl (because the Pac-12's bowl tie-ins are still active for a bit longer). Winning The Game certainly seems like it would be improbable, but then again, we said that last year, and in years before that, and Michigan found a way to Beat Ohio.  Do it again one more time, and let the chips fall where they may. Bring on the brand new renaissance because I think I'm ready.

Beat Ohio.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 45-20 IS NOT a Scorigami!  It would have been if Michigan had scored a TD on the last drive.
  
• 46,185 were in attendance for the game (the second smallest crowd of the season and the first time Michigan has played in front of back-to-back announced crowds of less than 60,000 since at Purdue and at Minnesota in 2008).
• Win 1,021.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 12-1-0 all-time against the University of Maryland-College Park.  This is Michigan's ninth straight win in the series against the Terrapins.
• Michigan improves to 10-8-0 all-time on November 22 (this was Michigan's first game on November 22 since 2014, and it was Michigan's only loss to Maryland in the series all-time).  Highlights of 11/22 include 1969 Ohio State, 1997 Ohio State, and 2003 Ohio State.
  
  
• Michigan improves to 24-1-0 when scoring exactly 45 points (the loss is the 2022 Fiesta Bowl).
• Michigan moves to 26-21-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 20 games all-time by precisely 25 points, the most recent example being the 2023 Bowling Green game, bka the JJ throws three picks but Michigan still wins game.

Nautical Disaster

"Michigan wins on a walk-off home run." --Patrick Barron (Photo: Patrick Barron)

I had this dream where I relished the fray and the screaming filled my head all day

It was as though I had been spit here, settled in

Into the pocket of a lighthouse on some rocky socket

Off the coast of France, dear

One afternoon, four thousand men died in the water here and five hundred more were thrashing madly as parasites might in your blood

Now I was in a lifeboat designed for ten and ten only

Anything that systematic would get you hated

--"Nautical Disaster" by the Tragically Hip, the third single from the band's 1994 album, Day for Night.

Walk-off wins should be exhilarating, at least on some level.  Your team is losing, and they have put together something that will allow them, with no time remaining on the clock, to win the game.  In baseball, it can be a lightning strike, because a walk-off home run takes just the proper connection on one pitch.  Maybe you needed to get a runner on base to set it up, but a walk-off in baseball can take many forms.  Football has simultaneously fewer and more types of walk-off victories.  Touchdown Manningham is a walk-off win.  So is the Miracle at Michigan.  Field goals in the bottom half of the overtime session are walk-offs.  Phil Brabbs' 44-yard field goal toward the north goal posts at Michigan Stadium against Washington was a walk-off (as far as I can tell, the last regulation field goal walk-off in Michigan history.  Brabbs also missed his first two attempts that game.)

It's not a deal not a test nor a love of something fated

(Death)

The selection was quick

The crew was picked, in order

And those left in the water were kicked off our pant leg

And we headed for home

It is easy to say that Michigan games against Northwestern in November are always weird, but there is at least a little truth to the statement when it comes to games in Evanston/Chicago.  Since 2000, we've had the 54-51 loss in 2000. 2003 wasn't weird per se; 41-10 games tend not to be. However, then you get 2013, which is the fire drill field goal with the Dileo power slide that forced overtime to win.  Then it's 2014, which, of course, is M00N.  So yeah, it's not a huge sample size, but it's also not encouraging.  Michigan did a bunch of little things wrong early (a hold on a beautiful outside run for Jordan Marshall for an early touchdown that would have absolutely set the tone, which led to Zvada's first miss of the day) but then, you know, 91 yard drive that ends in a touchdown, OK, that should be a good tone setter, especially because Bryce is throwing the ball well.  But the end of the first half for Michigan was punt, fumble (Chip Lindsay getting too cute by half with the orbit motion to Marsh), and a missed 60-yard field goal at the end of the half, while the Wildcats got a pair of field goals, creating an extremely annoying 7-6 score going into the locker room.

One could hope that after Michigan got the early touchdown in the third quarter after forcing Northwestern into a four-and-out, things would settle down.  They did not.  Michigan forced a three-and-out, and it looked like it would get the ball back with good field position. Semaj finally tried to make a return, and he fumbled (though I'm sorry, I still don't understand how that one counted as a Northwestern recovery.) Northwestern got a field goal out of it.  Michigan goes 80 yards, Jordan Marshall puts the ball over the goal line just long enough to get the score, Michigan goes up 21-9, and you would be forgiven if you thought that Michigan fans could relax.

It was at this point, after the third quarter stretch, that the game went into full bête noire territory for Michigan.  Northwestern goes 75 yards thanks to three long passes to get a TD and get it to 21-16.  OK, time for Michigan to respond.  Then Bryce has a freshman moment, throws a locked-on target pick, and five seconds later, Northwestern scores another TD; now they lead 22-21 after a failed two-point conversion attempt.  Fine, Michigan will just go down and respond.  Nope, Marshall gets hurt, and then Bryce throws another pick.  Ugh. Okay, the defense comes to the rescue, forcing a very tidy three-and-out.  Michigan gets the ball at their own 41, starts driving the ball, gets a great catch from Andrew Marsh, who was a revelation today, but on a fourth and one at the Northwestern 24, a fumble on the exchange, and Northwestern gets the ball back.  Defense bails them out again with a three-and-out, letting Michigan preserve all three of its time-outs.  Michigan gets the ball at their own 37, throws two straight incompletions, then needs a miracle of a grab from Marsh on the sideline, upheld on review (it shouldn't have even been a question), then keeps running Bryzon Kuzdzal seven times for 29 yards to set up Zvada for a game-winner with two seconds left.  

Then the dream ends when the phone rings

You're doing alright he said

It's out there most days and nights

But only a fool would complain

Anyway Susan, if you like, our conversation is as faint as a sound in my memory

As those fingernails scratching on my hull

Zvada shook off the nightmare of the season he's been having and put it through the uprights, and Michigan escaped with a 24-22 win, matching last season's win total with two games left to play in the regular season.  Questions about the injuries will loom, but off to College Park, we'll see what happens. 

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-22 IS a Scorigami!  It would not have been if Northwestern had kicked the extra point.
  
• 38,223 were in attendance for the game (the smallest crowd of the season and the smallest crowd Michigan has played in front of since the 2021 Maryland game).
• Win 1,020.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 61-15-2 all-time against Northwestern University.  This is Michigan's ninth straight win in the series against the Wildcats, which has included a pair of overtime games and M00N, and now this.
• Michigan improves to 14-5-0 all-time on November 15 (this was Michigan's first game on November 15 since 2008, which was the most recent loss to Northwestern, a miserable 21-14 loss which was dubbed Fandom Endurance IV due to the dreadful game and weather conditions).
  
  
• Michigan improves to 41-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 6-7-1 (groans at Gen Alphas) all-time when allowing 22 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 21 games all-time by precisely 2 points, the most recent example being the 2022 Illinois game, bka the Money Moody pseudo-walk off win.
• Bonus Stat: Michigan moves to 16-14 all-time in games in the city of Chicago.  This was its first in Chicago proper since 1939, when they defeated the University of Chicago 85-0 in the game that basically made Chicago give up football as a going concern.

It Can't Be Nashville Every Night

Once again, the Marshall Plan played a crucial role in rebuilding confidence.  (Michigan Athletics)

He said, "fuck this" and, "fuck that"

And this guy's the diplomat

Stares into the blur of the tuner lights

It can't be Nashville every night

He said, "We are what we lack"

And this guy's the autodidact

Stares into the glare of the TV lights

It can't be Nashville every night

--"It Can't Be Nashville Every Night" by The Tragically Hip, the second single from their 2005 album In Between Evolution

There are songs by The Hip that I love better, but as a phrase goes, "It Can't Be Nashville Every Night" is one of my favorites because it's a reminder that not every day can be the biggest, flashiest, or best.  There are a lot of days in life where you're just trying to get through to the next one, which also may not be a big deal, but you're punching the clock and trying to make it to the weekend.

This is also what it's like to play Purdue.  It's especially what it's like to play Purdue down five critical starters.

A thesis was presented on and around the Michigan internet this week, suggesting that the Halloween game is always cursed.  I looked at the data, and here are all the Halloween games, plus or minus one day of Halloween, since 1995.

Let's take them one at a time.

• Minnesota 1997.  Homecoming, a relatively straightforward win en route to the perfect season, Not Cursed.
• at Minnesota 1998.  Tied at 10 at halftime, only took the lead on a fourth-quarter safety and retained the Little Brown Jug.  Cursed.
• at Indiana 1999.  Needing a Hayden Epstein field goal late to beat a traditional Indiana game after a two-game losing streak?  Cursed.
• at Michigan State 2003.  Having to run Chris Perry 51 times to beat Michigan State in East Lansing?  Cursed.
• Michigan State 2004.  Braylonfest, but that means you were down 27-10 and needed 3OT to beat a not very good Michigan State team?  Fun, but Cursed.
• at Purdue 2008. 2-6 Purdue beats 2-6 Michigan on a hook and ladder after Michigan had tied it with 80 seconds left in a game already colored by Rich Rod being accused of wearing a wizard hat by Joe Tiller to steal Roy Roundtree from Purdue's recruiting class?  Cursed.
• at Illinois 2009.  Tate Forcier finds Roy Roundtree for a 76-yard pass that looks to be a touchdown to put Michigan up 20-7, only to have it ruled down at the Illinois 1, and Michigan cannot punch four straight chances on the doorstep in, and then Illinois goes 99 yards to tie it and wins going away 38-13?  SUPER Cursed.
• at Penn State 2010.  Denard goes for almost 200 passing and 200 rushing, but is never really in this game in Happy Valley.  Cursed.
• Indiana 2014.  Ahh, the Drake Johnson game!  The day after David Brandon resigned as AD?  Not Cursed.
• at Minnesota 2015.  Michigan has to pull out all the stops and get a gift of some dreadful Minnesota clock mismanagement to make a goal-line stand the week after Trouble with the Snap.  Cursed.
• Michigan State 2020.  Rocky Lombardi lights up the Michigan secondary in the COVID season.  Deeply Cursed.
• at Michigan State 2021.  The replay review flips the script as Kenneth Walker goes off for an ultimately meaningless loss in the scheme of things.  Cursed.
• Purdue 2025.  An annoying as hell sludge fart of a night game where Michigan never looked like they knew what they were doing, but they still made just enough plays to beat a Purdue team that remains winless in conference?  Cursed.

Results say 11 cursed games to 2 not cursed games.  Perhaps I am grading a little too harshly on some of these, but yes, Halloween games are cursed, and Michigan will almost assuredly have another one next year.  Something to look forward to, I suppose.

Anyway, the second bye week arrives at a great moment to get some players healthy and reset some ideas for the final three-week sprint to Thanksgiving and The Game.  Jordan Marshall looked solid in a starring role; the rest, we can burn the tape.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 21-16 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Three previous occurrences, 1981 Navy, the 1998 Rose Bowl against Washington State, and 1999 Wisconsin.) 
  
• 110,517 were in attendance for the game (the smallest home crowd of the season on the night when they acknowledged that the 100,000+ home crowd "streak" began fifty years ago next Saturday against Purdue.  (We all know how I feel about the claims that "the Streak" is unbroken, but it's apparently a lie we have just agreed to live with.)
• Win 1,019.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 48-14-0 all-time against Purdue University.  This is Michigan's seventh straight win in the limited series against a team that Michigan played its first ever Big Ten game against in 1896.
• Michigan improves to 15-3-1 all-time on November 1 (the tie is a 0-0 draw against the Varsity Blues of the University of Toronto in 1879, marking the second-ever game for the program).
  
  
• Michigan improves to 35-14-2 when scoring exactly 21 points.
• Michigan moves to 14-8-0 all-time when allowing 16 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 16 games all-time by precisely 5 points, the most recent example being the 2014 Penn State game, bka the Dancing Dennis Norfleet game.

Fifty Mission Cap

Bryce understands the assignment (Rachel Leggett)

My fifty-mission cap

I worked it in

I worked it in to look like that

It's my fifty-mission cap

(It's his fifty-mission cap)

And I worked it in

I worked it in

And I worked it in to look like that

And I worked it in to look like that

--"Fifty Mission Cap" by The Tragically Hip, the second single from the band's 1993 album Fully Completely

"Fifty Mission Cap" is primarily the relaying of a story about Bill Barilko's 1951 Stanley Cup-winning goal and his subsequent disappearance after a plane crash in a remote part of northern Ontario.  But, as this excellent blog post explains, it's actually about appearances, and about seeming to be something rather than actually being.  Which brings us to last night's game.

It has become clearer to me that there are two types of rivalries in college football: The ones where you want your team to beat the opponent and revel in it when it happens, and the ones where you are merely relieved that your team did not lose to the opponent, and even that relief is often cold comfort.

Michigan presents a stark vision of this.  Ohio State has been so good for so long, the stakes frequently so high when the teams meet, that victory seems like the only acceptable outcome, but a loss, while frustrating, is understandable.  Certainly, the last four years have helped reestablish this rivalry's essence, which had gone cold for nigh on a decade.  But the Michigan State rivalry is the lowest-floor, lowest-ceiling rivalry.  Yes, Michigan players love parading Paul around in his maize pants and custom-made hat, and now the Buffs, after a win, are bowl-eligible before October is over. Still, for fans, it was either "win the game you were supposed to as a two-touchdown favorite" or "hear about this crap for a year, and probably longer." Why am I so sure of that?  Because that is how the history of this rivalry works.  I am mostly just grateful that there was no weird kerfuffle or dustup after the game, that the strangest part of the endgame was Bryce doing selfies with fans or passing out Hot Hands, which is like a 0.25 out of 10 on the outrage scale.

As for the game itself, it went from cruise control in the first quarter, to squeaky bum time in the second, to asserting control in the third, to being grateful for Michigan State's decision-making in the fourth (and 12 penalties for 105 yards).  Jimmy Rolder had a game so solid, I'm willing to dub it "The Jimmy Rolder Game." 10 solo tackles, one sack, three tackles for loss, and a recovered fumble, plus an absolute cruise missile of a TFL on a fourth down when the Spartans tried to tempo Michigan subbing, and he shot the gap and pretty much ended Michigan State's last gasp.

In the end, Michigan had its highest rushing output against Michigan State since the 1994 meeting, with Haynes going for 152 and a pair of touchdowns, complemented by Marshall's 110 and a TD, which is a reminder of Tyrone Wheatley's 153 and two TDs and Tshimanga Biakabatuka's 141 and a touchdown in the 1994 game mentioned above.  Michigan won a game on the road where Bryce Underwood passed for fewer yards than Davis Warren did in last year's edition of this game!  Michigan won, Paul stays in Ann Arbor, and everyone can move on with their lives.  Hail.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 31-20 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Two previous occurrences, 1969 Purdue and 2018 Indiana (the snow angels game.)) (In case you were wondering, 31-13 is also NOT a Scorigami)
  
• 75,085 were in attendance for the game.
• Win 1,018.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 75-38-3 all-time against Michigan State University (including games when they were still State Agricultural College, Michigan Agricultural College, Michigan State College of Agriculture and Applied Science, Michigan State University of Agriculture and Applied Science, and finally Michigan State University), including four straight wins in the series for the first time since the 2002-2007 run of six straight wins.
• Michigan moves to 17-4-0 all-time on October 25, the feast of St. Crispin. (Like last week, it is Michigan's first win on this date since 2003!  Michigan evens its record against Michigan State to 2-2 on St. Crispin's Day —(we few, we happy few).
  
  
• Michigan improves to 46-4-0 when scoring exactly 31 points.
• Michigan moves to 25-21-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 22 games all-time by precisely 11 points, the most recent example being the aforementioned Snow Angels game against Indiana in 2018.

Vaccination Scar

Getting to hear master bluesmen practicing their craft. (Michigan Athletics)

I'll tell you if I'm able

That is, I'll tell you like it is

It went down like a bad card table

Like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Swimming on a bit

Stop and treading water as the sun assimilated the words

For lighthouse fire

Burning down to embers' end

The mystery met

The sky just-reddened, heading home under dusk

Is life just forgetting

Another word for frivolous

--"Vaccination Scar" by the Tragically Hip from their 2004 album In Between Evolution 

One of the beauties of the songs of the Tragically Hip is that sometimes, they're just really deep, meandering thought exercises that also just sound good with the music behind them.  But you shouldn't necessarily worry if you cannot figure out why you like it; you just do.

Which brings us to today's game.  Other than one masterful play-calling drive from Chip, the first half was best described as a pair of teams waiting for the other one to screw up.  And screw up they did, but only annoyingly, never critically.

We had plays that needed reviews that didn't get them, including two critical spots on a 4th and 1 and a 3rd down that set up what was sad to be a 4th and 1.  But in the end, it didn't matter.  Michigan got a pair of picks, one from Cole Sullivan, one from Jimmy Rolder, and cashed in both to take a 7-7 game stuck in the mire to a 21-7 game, then got Washington off the field with a fourth down sack that might have been a fumble but it's moot, leading to a field goal, and that is all there was.  This was a middling game for a very long time until it wasn't.  That's OK. Sometimes football is like that, and coming away from a game like that with a win is about the best you can hope for.  The injuries piled up, for sure, hopefully nothing too serious beyond a likely season-ender for Link, and definitely some things to clean up, but this felt a lot better than last week, which, admittedly, did not take much.  But still.

Hey, Michigan State in East Lansing next week.  Nothing ever goes sideways with that.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-7 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Five previous occurrences, most recently 1995 Memphis.)
  
• 110,710 were in attendance for the game.
• Win 1,017, which ties the closest we have been to getting a win number that matched the date of the win. (Win 912 was on 9/13).
  
  
• Michigan moves to 10-6-0 all-time against the University of Washington, including 3-1 in the last five years, which just seems weird that it's been that many, and yet!
  
• Michigan moves to 14-5-0 all-time on October 18 (It is Michigan's first win on this date since 2003 and Michigan's first game on this date since 2008!)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 40-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 112-13-4 all-time when allowing 7 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 30 games all-time by precisely 17 points, the most recent example being a 34-17 victory over New Mexico in Ann Arbor in 2025.

Looking for a Place to Happen

Andrew Marsh had a nice night (Michigan Athletics)

Wayward ho! Away we go

It's a shame to leave this masterpiece

With its gallery gods and its garbage-bag trees

So I'll paint a scene, from memory

So I'd know who murdered me

It's a vain pursuit, but it helps me to sleep

--"Looking for a Place to Happen" by The Tragically Hip, the fifth single from the band's third studio album, Fully Completely 

OK, I'm not happy, but I'm not angry.  I didn't "call it" by any means, but the computers did say this was more than likely to be a USC win, so any belief in Michigan winning was largely vibes-based or hope-centered.  That is not a bad thing, per se, but it was not as simple as Michigan heading out to LA, securing a nice win, and getting into the playoff conversation.  

What I saw yesterday was a team that couldn't tackle and couldn't fit USC's runs.  It was shocking and disappointing.  This would have been a much more of a beatdown on the scoreboard if Michigan had not secured two timely turnovers while USC was driving and in the red zone.  But the reality was, USC looked like they could get whatever they wanted on the ground, Michigan could not finish a tackle to save their lives, and Bryce and company could only do so much, and you end up losing by 18.  

There's not a lot to say that doesn't devolve into complaining about Wink (Michigan isn't going to fire him in season) or being overly pessimistic about the rest of the season.  Washington is a good test this coming weekend, if they can contain the Huskies' QB, it should be a relatively straightforward affair, and if not, well, Michigan hockey looked excellent this past weekend, taking a pair from #6 Providence at their rink.  We'll see how it goes, right?

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 13-31 IS  a Scorigami!  (honestly, did not predict that! A 31-14 loss would not have been, so thanks, Sherrone, for going for two?)
  
• 75,500 were in attendance for the game, which is the smallest crowd to see Michigan play this season.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 5-7-0 all-time against the University of Southern California (all of USC's wins have been in Los Angeles County).
  
• Michigan moves to 17-3-0 all-time on October 11 (Michigan's most recent loss was the Toledo incident in 2008.)
  
  
• Michigan falls to 19-17-1 when scoring exactly 13 points (we keep doing this lately.  Three of Michigan's four most recent road games have ended up with Michigan scoring 13 points.)
• Michigan moves to 8-13-0 all-time when allowing 31 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 2 games all-time by precisely 18 points, the other example being the 2008 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend.

Blow at High Dough

"Well, I can get behind anything."  Welcome back, Rod Moore (Michigan Athletics)

Well, sometimes the faster it gets

The less you need to know

But you got to remember the smarter it gets

The further it's going to go

--"Blow at High Dough" by The Tragically Hip from their 1989 debut album Up to Here 

Scripted drives, man.  Scripted drives.  Because Michigan won the toss and deferred, Wisconsin got the ball first and went on a 12-play, 75-yard, nearly seven-minute touchdown drive that felt like an absolute harbinger of doom.  Collectively, there was a sense that this was how Fickell planned to win and save his job: a methodical, run-heavy approach, similar to Wisconsin of old, which would bleed the clock, limit possessions, and make Michigan's defense sweat.  Michigan would answer with a tidy five-play 75-yard, two-minute drive to draw back to even on its own scripted drive, and the game settled into an equilibrium that made no one happy.

Several decades of watching not just Michigan football, but college football in general, have given me a false sense of knowing where the doom lurks.  I should know better, but I don't, because fandom is an emotional pursuit for many of us.  I am the person that makes his students mark every time they guess on a test question they had down to two options on the multiple choice because the tendency to believe that you missed all of your 50/50 questions comes from looking for where things go wrong, and forgetting to check for the ones you had down to 50/50 and got correct (it's a version of survivorship bias I would later realize.)

Here's what Wisconsin did in the drives after the scripted one:

• Punt - 6 plays, 22 yards, 2:57
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:45
• Punt - 5 plays, 19 yards, 3:33
• Punt - 3 plays, 8 yards, 2:16
• Punt - 4 plays, 23 yards, 1:35
• Punt - 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:36
• Interception - 3 plays, 31 yards, 1:37*
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 0:57
• Field Goal - 13 plays, 53 yards, 6:41

(*-Did I yell "ROD MOORE!" like six times in a row after the pick because it was just so good to see him back out there and balling again?  You bet!)

Sky McCulley (Michigan Athletics)

Wisconsin never actually threatened Michigan after the scripted drive.  Even the dead cat bounce field goal drive was a mirage, as it took almost seven minutes to complete when they were down 24-7 with 9:24 left in the fourth quarter. If Wisconsin had shown the horses to be able to move the ball well and with assertiveness, they would have done it before the fourth quarter.  So when Channing Goodwin recovered the onside kick attempt by the Badgers, Luke Fickell saw the hand writing on the wall, did not use his timeouts, and Michigan won its clunker, 24-10.

Because the scripted drive came first, and because Michigan could not capitalize on some of its drives, the whole game felt worse than it was —a game with a 99.8% Postgame win expectancy, according to SP+.  However, it's a win; Michigan remains undefeated in conference, Wisconsin continues to spiral toward the likely dismissal of Fickell, and Michigan's path to the playoff has opened up a little more because Penn State could not handle a cross-country trip to previously winless UCLA.  Michigan makes a similar sojourn to Southern California next week (thankfully, Willow Run's runways are more than adequate to handle a charter flight to LA [side eye at Frames]).  All things being equal, if Michigan can secure a win in the Coliseum, it will become a direct path to achieving its goals for the rest of the season.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-10 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Three previous occurrences: 1982 Indiana, 1989 Illinois, and 2001 Purdue (also homecoming))
  
• 111,070 were in attendance for the game, which is not the largest crowd at Michigan Stadium this year, but it is the largest crowd for a Michigan Stadium football event this year.
• Win 1,016
  
  
• Michigan moves to 53-17-1 all-time against the University of Wisconsin.
  
• Michigan moves to 12-5-2 all-time on October 4 (It is Michigan's first win on this date in the 21st century and ends a three-game losing streak of 2003 Iowa, 2008 Illinois, and 2014 Rutgers, the last two of which are among the most infuriating losses in Michigan history in their own way.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 39-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 58-10-1 all-time when allowing 10 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 52 games all-time by precisely 14 points, the most recent example being a 21-7 victory over #24 Michigan State in East Lansing in 2018, which was notable for Devin Bush opening a lawn maintenance service, a rain delay, and DPJ hitting the Bunyan for the first time.

Ahead by a Century

Donovan McCulley already knew.  (Rachel Leggett)

"First thing, we'd climb a tree

And maybe then we'd talk

Or sit silently

And listen to our thoughts

With illusions of someday

Cast in a golden light

No dress rehearsal

This is our life."

--"Ahead by a Century" by The Tragically Hip, the lead single from their 1996 album Trouble at the Henhouse

The only road game I was terrified of, on paper, before the season began, was Nebraska.  I had already chalked up Oklahoma to a loss early in the season, on the road, with a freshman quarterback; you just hope for the best, and maybe you get a pleasant surprise, but I wasn't pinning my hopes on that.  USC is a challenge, and Michigan State is always feisty; I take nothing for granted.  However, Nebraska felt like they had a confluence of things, coupled with the second game of the Sherrone suspension, that made this feel like it could be a very silly game that ended in a loss.

And that's where the hornet stung me (That's where the hornet stung me)

And I had a feverish dream (I had a feverish dream)

With revenge and doubt

Tonight, we smoke them out

OK, so the good news is that it was pretty silly, but it didn't end in a loss, no matter how hard Michigan tried to make it one.  And they really did.  So instead of a recap, drive by drive, let's break this down in a "good idea"/"bad idea" style:

Good idea:

• Cole Sullivan gets a one-handed pick, and one play later, Bryce Underwood cashes it in for a 37-yard designed run touchdown. 

Bad idea:

• A coverage bust on Tampa 2 leads to Nebraska's first touchdown.

Good idea:

• A long, largely untouched touchdown run of 75 yards by Justice Haynes stakes Michigan to an early lead. 

Bad idea:

• Someone on the Michigan sideline doesn't understand that with all three timeouts left, even though you're getting the ball back, call a timeout to prevent Nebraska from setting up a free shot at a Hail Mary, which they then cashed in to make it a tied game headed into halftime.

Good idea:

• ZVADA's glorious return turns a potentially disappointing second drive in the second half into points with an absolute bomb from 56 yards out that would have been good from 60+. 

Bad idea:

• Big Ten refs decide that no one ever holds Michigan's terrifying pass rush.

Good idea:

• A second long, largely untouched touchdown run of 54 yards by Jordan Marshall pushes Michigan's lead back out to 10 points. 

Bad idea:

• After forcing a 4th and 17, Brandyn Hillman draws an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for making the catch signal at the Nebraska bench, thus "taunting," and Nebraska marches down the field for a field goal to bring it back within 7.

Good idea:

• Michigan remembers how to boa constrictor teams like the Harbaugh era, turning in a 16-play, 77-yard drive that nearly saw Bryce run in another, but instead saw another Zvada field goal to go up 30-20.

Bad idea:

• Michigan plays bend don't break defense, nearly getting off the field, but giving up a pass interference (probably a good one, honestly), and nearly getting Hillman suspended for Wisconsin with a targeting call that could have gone either way, and eventually seeing Nebraska score a TD to bring it back within 3.

Good idea:

• Kendrick Bell shows that good hands run in the family, high points the Nebraska onside kick, gets down, and Michigan can kneel it out in victory formation and win their sixth straight Big Ten opener and survive the Sherrone suspension with a 2-0 record, and a 3-1 overall record heading into a bye week before homecoming with Wisconsin.

They don't ask how; they just ask how many, and Michigan is a team that really needs to clean up the details.  However, for this game, they had the talent to overcome some foolish decisions and mind-boggling mind slips to win a Big Ten road game.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 30-27 IS (somehow) a Scorigami!  (We didn't believe it either.)
  
• 87,278 were in attendance for the game, which is a standard issue Nebraska game at Memorial Stadium.
• Win 1,015
  
  
• Michigan moves to 9-4-1 all-time against the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
  
• Michigan moves to 4-3-1 all-time on September 20 (There's a 1980 Notre Dame loss in there, the 2003 Oregon game, and the 2014 Utah game as the Hoke era collapse began in earnest)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 11-1-0 when scoring exactly 30 points (lone loss 1988 Miami).
• Michigan moves to 7-15-0 all-time when allowing 27 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 51 games all-time by precisely 3 points, the most recent example being a 13-10 victory over #2 Ohio State in Columbus in 2024, which you may have heard about.

Grace, Too

"Armed with skill and its frustration, and grace, too" (Michigan Photography)

But I can guarantee

There'll be no knock on the door

I'm total pro

That's what I'm here for

--"Grace, Too" by The Tragically Hip from their 1994 album Day for Night 

(Before we get started, allow me to send you over to YouTube where you can check out yesterday's fantastic MMB halftime performance of songs from Wicked.)

One of the most challenging things about a college football season is the lack of gameplay datapoints.  A couple of weeks into a baseball season, you wouldn't have a lot of data, but you would feel like you might have something to work with.  But just two weeks into a college football season, it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions.  However, coaching staffs have to do so because the season is so short; you cannot afford not to. You have to make adjustments, even when things are going well.

It was heartening that New Mexico went into the Rose Bowl and soundly beat a UCLA team on Friday night.  That UCLA team might be utterly dreadful, and DeShaun Foster has already been fired by Sunday morning, but seeing that New Mexico might be a better-than-average Mountain West team made me feel a little better about Michigan in Week 1.  But the concerns were still there for Week 3: how would Michigan respond to what everyone agreed was a lackluster performance in Norman, and how would Michigan play without Sherrone at the helm because of the school's self-imposed two-game suspension?  Answers would be forthcoming.

The secret rules of engagement
Are hard to endorse
When the appearance of conflict
Meets the appearance of force

The Michigan offense looked fully operational in all facets of the game yesterday.  A 10-play, 75-yard drive that ended with a Justice Haynes touchdown, a 6-play drive that ended with a textbook perfect Underwood to Morgan 32-yard touchdown pass.  A missed field goal by Zvada was somewhat troubling, but Michigan stormed right back after Central Michigan's punt with a 77-yard drive that included three "explosives," the last of which was Bryce Underwood running the ball in, to the loud approbation of the Big House crowd.  Central deserves credit for going for it on 4th and 1 on their own 34, but Michigan got the stop and immediately cashed it in two plays later on an Andrew Marsh end-around run.  Even a Bryce Underwood pick didn't dampen the mood, as in some quarters, it was like "OK, but he was throwing a deep ball, it's good to know they have that in the playbook," and it only ended in a Central Michigan field goal.  Michigan then executed a fantastic two-minute drill that covered 79 yards in less than 120 seconds and ended with a Jordan Marshall touchdown, making up for the one he had called back earlier on a penalty.  

The second half was largely academic, two touchdowns in the third on longish drives, a Michigan interception leading to a TD drive, a CMU fumble leading to a Michigan TD drive, and that was pretty much all there was.  This was an "It's hard to find things to be critical of" type of game that you want to see out of Michigan against a MAC opponent.

What it boiled down to was that Michigan fans wanted to see Bryce without training wheels ahead of next week's Big Ten opener in Lincoln.  They got it, and then some.  There were Bryce laser throws, there were Bryce rollouts and passes on a rail, there were designed runs for Mr. Underwood, and there were Bryce escapes that turned plays that were dead to rights into something, and occasionally, something more.  The defense looked much more together than it had at any point in the season, MAC caveats applied, and the team did not seem to be at a loss without Moore running the show. No one rational overreacted to last week as much as there were just general calls for doing more and doing better, and it worked, for at least one game.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 63-3 is NOT a Scorigami (63-3 was the score of 2016 Hawai'i, which means those two wins are the largest margins of victory at Michigan Stadium in the last 50 years.)
  
• 110,740 were in attendance for the game, the 88th largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.
• Win 1,014
  
  
• Michigan moves to 5-0-0 all-time against Central Michigan University.
  
• Michigan moves to 7-1-0 all-time on September 13 (The lone loss was to Notre Dame in South Bend in 2008.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 12-0-0 when scoring exactly 63 points.
• Michigan moves to 49-3-3 all-time when allowing 3 points to the opposition.
• Michigan won 3 games all-time by precisely 60 points, the aforementioned 63-3 games and 60-0 over Indiana in 1902.