Ahead by a Century

Donovan McCulley already knew.  (Rachel Leggett)

"First thing, we'd climb a tree

And maybe then we'd talk

Or sit silently

And listen to our thoughts

With illusions of someday

Cast in a golden light

No dress rehearsal

This is our life."

--"Ahead by a Century" by The Tragically Hip, the lead single from their 1996 album Trouble at the Henhouse

The only road game I was terrified of, on paper, before the season began, was Nebraska.  I had already chalked up Oklahoma to a loss early in the season, on the road, with a freshman quarterback; you just hope for the best, and maybe you get a pleasant surprise, but I wasn't pinning my hopes on that.  USC is a challenge, and Michigan State is always feisty; I take nothing for granted.  However, Nebraska felt like they had a confluence of things, coupled with the second game of the Sherrone suspension, that made this feel like it could be a very silly game that ended in a loss.

And that's where the hornet stung me (That's where the hornet stung me)

And I had a feverish dream (I had a feverish dream)

With revenge and doubt

Tonight, we smoke them out

OK, so the good news is that it was pretty silly, but it didn't end in a loss, no matter how hard Michigan tried to make it one.  And they really did.  So instead of a recap, drive by drive, let's break this down in a "good idea"/"bad idea" style:

Good idea:

• Cole Sullivan gets a one-handed pick, and one play later, Bryce Underwood cashes it in for a 37-yard designed run touchdown. 

Bad idea:

• A coverage bust on Tampa 2 leads to Nebraska's first touchdown.

Good idea:

• A long, largely untouched touchdown run of 75 yards by Justice Haynes stakes Michigan to an early lead. 

Bad idea:

• Someone on the Michigan sideline doesn't understand that with all three timeouts left, even though you're getting the ball back, call a timeout to prevent Nebraska from setting up a free shot at a Hail Mary, which they then cashed in to make it a tied game headed into halftime.

Good idea:

• ZVADA's glorious return turns a potentially disappointing second drive in the second half into points with an absolute bomb from 56 yards out that would have been good from 60+. 

Bad idea:

• Big Ten refs decide that no one ever holds Michigan's terrifying pass rush.

Good idea:

• A second long, largely untouched touchdown run of 54 yards by Jordan Marshall pushes Michigan's lead back out to 10 points. 

Bad idea:

• After forcing a 4th and 17, Brandyn Hillman draws an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for making the catch signal at the Nebraska bench, thus "taunting," and Nebraska marches down the field for a field goal to bring it back within 7.

Good idea:

• Michigan remembers how to boa constrictor teams like the Harbaugh era, turning in a 16-play, 77-yard drive that nearly saw Bryce run in another, but instead saw another Zvada field goal to go up 30-20.

Bad idea:

• Michigan plays bend don't break defense, nearly getting off the field, but giving up a pass interference (probably a good one, honestly), and nearly getting Hillman suspended for Wisconsin with a targeting call that could have gone either way, and eventually seeing Nebraska score a TD to bring it back within 3.

Good idea:

• Kendrick Bell shows that good hands run in the family, high points the Nebraska onside kick, gets down, and Michigan can kneel it out in victory formation and win their sixth straight Big Ten opener and survive the Sherrone suspension with a 2-0 record, and a 3-1 overall record heading into a bye week before homecoming with Wisconsin.

They don't ask how; they just ask how many, and Michigan is a team that really needs to clean up the details.  However, for this game, they had the talent to overcome some foolish decisions and mind-boggling mind slips to win a Big Ten road game.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 30-27 IS (somehow) a Scorigami!  (We didn't believe it either.)
  
• 87,278 were in attendance for the game, which is a standard issue Nebraska game at Memorial Stadium.
• Win 1,015
  
  
• Michigan moves to 9-4-1 all-time against the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
  
• Michigan moves to 4-3-1 all-time on September 20 (There's a 1980 Notre Dame loss in there, the 2003 Oregon game, and the 2014 Utah game as the Hoke era collapse began in earnest)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 11-1-0 when scoring exactly 30 points (lone loss 1988 Miami).
• Michigan moves to 7-15-0 all-time when allowing 27 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 51 games all-time by precisely 3 points, the most recent example being a 13-10 victory over #2 Ohio State in Columbus in 2024, which you may have heard about.

Sway

This should not have worked, but it did, and it was spectacular. (Patrick Barron)

"Did you ever wake up to find

A day that broke up your mind

Destroyed your notion of circular time"

"Sway" by the Rolling Stones from their 1971 album Sticky Fingers

This was more like it.  This is what most of Michigan fandom wanted but did not hope for.  Michigan has never had an easy time of it in either of their B1G games in Lincoln, but having lost the toss, Michigan started on offense for the first time all season and began a methodical drive, churning out first downs without any play longer than nine yards, setting up 2nd and 2 at the Nebraska 29 when J.J. McCarthy waited out the patterns to develop thanks to a clean pocket and fired an absolute laser into the back of the end zone where, somehow, Roman Wilson did his best Tyrone Prothro impression, held on to the ball, and opened the scoring on the day for Michigan.  It's easier to say in retrospect, but the vibes were immediately excellent after this.

So when, on their second play from scrimmage, Nebraska had a pass batted in the air and Kenneth Grant, quickly becoming a fan favorite, waited for it to come down like the biggest kid in your fifth-grade class getting ready to pull down a wounded duck in a recess game of "500", letting Michigan cash in three plays later on a beautiful 20-yard rush by Kalel Mullings, yep, the rout was on.

Nebraska did try to make a game of it with a solid 68 yard drive, but Michigan stopped Nebraska on a 4th and 1 and turned around to go 88 yards in nine plays to get a touchdown when J.J. saw nothing but green grass in front of him and celebrated by feasting on some corn on the cob.

A series of three traded punts ensued, and with time winding down, J.J. McCarthy did something that qualifies as all I have ever wanted from a Michigan quarterback, all in one play:

McCarthy took the snap, saw pressure, and thus, he rolled out to his left, he had plenty of space in front of him if he wanted to run, but instead threw an absolute dime to the back of the end zone (Jason Benetti said it had a vapor trail on it) to a crossing Roman Wilson, who snagged it in stride, touchdown Michigan, 28-0.

The second half was largely about keeping up the solid effort, scoring on their three drives, pulling the starters to avoid injury, and save one big bust by the backups to allow Nebraska to keep their scoring streak alive, largely just doing the good work over and over again, it was a comfortable, easy-going afternoon of Michigan football.  Not a bad way to start the road slate.

Jug security is now at a premium for the week to come.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• Win 0994
• 45-7 is NOT a Scorigami (fifth ever, most recently August 30, 2003, against Central Michigan.)
• 87,134 was the attendance.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 8-4-1 all-time against Nebraska.
• Michigan has won 4 straight over Nebraska.
• Michigan moves to 10-3 all-time on September 30.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 23-1 when scoring exactly 45 points. (sighs in Fiesta Bowl)
• Michigan moves to 110-13-4 all-time when allowing precisely 7 points.
• Michigan has won 18 games all-time by precisely 38 points.

Things That Scare Me

Triple H - Hassan Haskins Hurdles (photo by the incomparable and trustworthy Patrick Barron)
(Photos selected today by HSR editorial assistant Franklin Barker, who emailed me his choices this morning.)

"Fluorescent lights engage

Blackbirds frying on a wire

Same birds that followed me to school when I was young

Were they trying to tell me something?

Were they telling me to run?...

Claim your soul's not for sale

I'm a dying breed who still believes

Haunted by American dreams

Haunted by American dreams"
--"Things That Scare Me" by Neko Case from her 2002 album Blacklisted

It would be totally understandable if you missed what happened in last night's Michigan hockey game.  The puck dropped at 7:00 PM and Michigan immediately scored two goals in the first three minutes and looked like they were going to roll as they had on Friday night.  Lake Superior State then scored four straight goals in the space of 18 minutes of game time and the vaunted Michigan team looked to be in a world of trouble.  It was senior Michael Pastujov's five-hole tally in the latter phases of the second period, coupled with senior Jimmy Lambert's tally late in the period that tied Michigan up.  Michigan would score three more in the third and win 7-4.  The notions of "could this supremely talented team face down adversity" were tested earlier than some expected, but they met the test with flying colors by simply locking down the defensive miscues and scoring five straight goals.

Brad Hawkins says no. (AP Photo/Rebecca S. Gratz)

Because of everything else that happened, it would be easy to forget how critical Brad Hawkins stopping Adrian Martinez on the fourth down scramble at the Michigan 3 early in the first quarter was.  Momentum is not quantifiable, but Michigan kept the score at zeroes after a middling opening drive on offense and a couple of busts on the first drive on defense.  Bend but don't break.  Be grateful that Scott Frost went for an early haymaker and missed.  He was right to try it, there just has to be an understanding of the potential costs for that.  Michigan and Nebraska seemed to be stuck in neutral for much of the first quarter, but a timely and spectacular pick by Daxton Hill got Michigan in business in plus territory, but the offense stalled a bit and had to settle for a field goal.  Not ideal, but at least signs of life.  After another Nebraska punt, the game decided to go utterly weird.

A three-yard run by Hassan Haskins near midfield took nearly an eternity to litigate after a weird flag, later picked up, resulted at the ball being spotted back at the third-down spot but now being called fourth down.  That Jim Harbaugh had to go fire and brimstone to get the officials to review it was sad (though vindicated) but it began a very visible pattern of the officials having a very rough night.  Immediately after the review, Cade McNamara hit Mike Sainristil for a gorgeous diving catch on an overthrown ball to get Michigan inside the Nebraska ten.  Alas, a Daylen Baldwin drop on first down was followed by a Hassan Haskins run to the one-foot line that was deemed short of the line to gain (though I still believe the laces were over, that's me.)  Haskins would get in on third down, only to discover, whoops, McNamara's knee was down and Michigan had to settle for another field goal.  It would have been very easy to fall into the pattern of fearing that these moments would come back to cost Michigan later.

It felt a little better when Michigan forced a five-play punt (which was only five because of a PI call) and then used some power run game and a PI call of its own to get the Haskins touchdown for real this time and head into the locker room up 13-0.

The fears of what was happening but ultimately did not come to fruition against Rutgers were borne out in the second half.  Nebraska got the ball and looked like they ran what felt like a scripted set of plays to get a touchdown to narrow it to a one-possession game, which, followed by a Michigan punt, had the feel of "oh no, here it comes."  This was epitomized by A.J. Henning's "dual possession awarded to the receiving team" moment after a Nebraska punt.  But McCarthy and the offense kept their cool, used some excellent runs and a couple of very timely Baldwin catches to cap off a ten-play, 91-yard drive for a touchdown.  I understand the card saying to go for two here and it being close enough to the fourth to justify it, but the play call, especially when you have Corum and Haskins, was interesting.

That it felt like the wheels were falling off in the three minutes of game time would be an understatement.  A quick counterstrike touchdown by Nebraska on just five plays, Cade McNamara's first career interception, and an immediate Nebraska touchdown and two-point conversion and Michigan was trailing for the first time all season.

How do you come back from adversity?  Hockey had shown that senior leadership can be critical, but sometimes you just go back to what works, and in this case, it's blocking, hitting your holes, and going off like Blake Corum did for 29 yards and Michigan went back up 26-22.  Unfortunately, Nebraska used a combination of runs, gamesmanship, and misdirection to get Martinez back into the end zone after an eight-play drive of their own to retake the lead by three.

Hassan Haskins' hurdle, part of a fifty-yard run, looked like it was going to have Michigan counter punching but the offense stalling in the red zone led to another Jake Moody field goal and a tied ball game.  Nebraska would have the ball with three minutes left to play, an eternity as it were, given how Nebraska had been moving the ball.

The Brad Hawkins bookend. (Patrick Barron)

I did not fully comprehend what had happened on this play.  It looked like Martinez had made the first down, despite being met by a host of Michigan tacklers, but suddenly, there was Brad Hawkins picking up the ball and running with it.  People yelling "there wasn't a whistle" and suddenly, Michigan has the ball on the Nebraska 18 with 105 seconds left on the clock.

Money. (AP Photo/Rebecca S. Gratz)

Jake Moody has a beautiful little draw to his field goal kicks that takes a couple of tries to get used to, especially when you view them from SkyCam.  Moody made all four of his field goals, including the 39-yarder to put Michigan up 32-29.  Nebraska immediately responded with a 25 yard gain to get to midfield with over a minute left and all of the joy that came from seeing Hawkins recover the fumble was dissipating in the night sky.  Close, but not close enough.  But the defense came through, forcing an incomplete, an incomplete, a completion for no gain thanks to a wonderful stick on a screen, and an incomplete on coverage by Daxton Hill.  The taunting flag was no matter as it was after the play, and Michigan earned their first win in Lincoln, their first winning streak against the Huskers, and a perfect 6-0 record heading into the bye week.  When taken together, none of this felt possible at the start of the season, but here we are.

Leadership can come from anywhere.  We expect the seniors on college teams to be the ones to do it because they have been there longest, but sometimes they are so mired in what has gone wrong that it takes an infusion of young talents to move things forward.  But in the end, it takes an entire team to win games like this, on the road, in a hostile environment desperate for a win that they could point to as a changing the trajectory of the program, at night.  Harbaugh said the team understood the assignment and was determined to not let it happen on their watch.  This is much easier to say when you escape Lincoln with a win, as spread-covering as it might be.

Six tests, six passing grades.  They only get harder from here.  But this team has given every indication that they are ready for it.

I don't know Davey

This photoshop is as realistic as expecting a successful
Michigan run out of the I-formation.

There are times for rational analysis and there are times for STRONG TAEKS: The only person who has less understanding than Al Borges of what an offensive lineman can and cannot handle is Richie Incognito, no offense. OK then, carrying on.

Bill Barnwell writes at Grantland about David strategies and Goliath strategies. The purpose of David strategies is to increase the variance in the outcome when you clearly are at a disadvantage: a recent example of this is Jacksonville's risk-taking against Denver, which kept the game close for about a half. Spread offenses developed as David strategies - smaller teams developed ways to neutralize their size disadvantage through speed and misdirection.

MANBALL is essentially a synonym for Goliath strategy. Alabama can execute MANBALL. Stanford can execute MANBALL (provided they're not playing Utah). If you have superior athletes, you don't have to make clever play calls. If everyone executes the plays properly, you'll end up ahead. Low variance is what you want if you have the initial advantage.

What happens if we have pinnepedian, Whitlockian, patience? Suppose Michigan's great recruiting classes keep coming in and the players are coached up properly and the line play becomes effective. (Possibly next year, possibly the year after that.) Will MANBALL be effective then? Sure, it'll get you to nine wins, but, at some point, you'll be in the hole against Ohio State or Michigan State or Rutgers or against an SEC team in a - God forbid! - national semifinal. What then? That's when it's time to use a David strategy, break a tendency, take a risk. Maybe you'll lose big, but you'll give yourself a chance to come back and win a game that you should have lost. It's better than trying the same thing that stopped working again and again and again.

What's the ceiling of a MANBALL team with a coaching staff that shows no inability to get creative when things aren't going well? Maybe Michigan gets all the breaks in every game one year and wins it all. Most likely, it's back to the bad old days of 9-3 or 10-2 and perennial trips to central Florida.

Goliath strategies work against Indiana's defense. They don't work against Michigan State's. They apparently don't work against Nebraska's either. MANBALL always hits a brick wall eventually.

The Borges-O-Meter has finally reached Tlön, though not in the way we hoped. Setting incredible offensive records one week, then following it up - after a bye - with two astoundingly crappy performances. That's otherworldly. A Stygian otherworld is still an otherworld.

Omaha

Man down. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

[Ed. Note: Counting Crows didn't write a down tempo song called "Lincoln" so "Omaha", close enough.]



Start tearing the old man down
Run past the heather and down to the old road
Start turning the grain into the ground
Roll a new leaf over
In the middle of the night there's an old man
Treading around in the gathered rain
Hey mister if you want to walk on water
Would you drop a line my way

Duct tape.  It's was held together with duct tape, hope, and rolling dice.  And now the questions will come for the coaching staff, although any questions to Greg Mattison will likely consist of "Why can't you guys score too?"  But we caught a glimpse of a future we will need to face all too soon, a future without Denard Robinson.  That future consisted of three field goals total output on offense.

Omaha
Somewhere in middle America
Get right to the heart of matters
It's the heart that matters more
I think you'd better turn your ticket in
And leave your money right at the door


Because Michigan never lead in this game, it was, somehow, amazingly, less frustrating than one might think.  Maybe it was the let down of the Tigers not doing anything on offense during the World Series, maybe it was just knowing that when Denard went down, on a play where I was, in the middle of the run, praising him for getting the first down instead of getting out of bounds, injuring his elbow, and by extension, losing his grip on his throwing hand, it was going to take something close to a miracle to win in Lincoln.  So I wasn't happy, but there was a weird knowing.  Knowing that the defense is still pretty stout (although it looks like we're going to have one "The Hell?" drive per game.  Disappointed, but somehow, it's like I knew this was the end result.

Start threading the needle
Brush past the shuttle that slides through the cold room
Start turning the wool across the wire
Roll the new life over
In the middle of the night there's an old man
Threading his toes through a bucket of rain
Hey mister if you want to walk on water
You're only going to walk all over me

I want to believe in Russell Bellomy, because I don't think the Michigan coaching staff is stupid.  They clearly saw something in him that made them believe that the Gardner to WR move could work.  But sadly, those things did not materialize last night during the game.  When Russell has as many completions to Nebraska players as he did to Michigan players, that is beyond troubling (admittedly, I cannot understand how in the world that first interception was, in fact, an interception.  It wouldn't have been a catch if Smith had held on, so how could it be an interception?  More bafflingly still, how was there no review?  Credit to Bellomy for his hustle to get back and save four points, but still.)  When Nebraska penalties are the only means by which you can move the ball, well, the whole thing needs to get rethought.  The sad thing for Bellomy is that he's going to need something pretty amazing to work on building some equity with Michigan fans.  It doesn't make it right, but right now, there's a preference for the Devil you don't when it comes to next year.  (Although, really, there have been fewer freshmen quarterbacks about whom we have known more than the Senator.)

Omaha
Somewhere in middle America
Get right to the heart of matters
It's the heart that matters more
I think you'd better turn your ticket in
And leave your money right at the door


Start running the banner down
Drop past the color come up through the summer rain
Start turning the girl into the ground
Roll a new life over
In the middle of the night there's a young man
Rolling around in the earth and rain
Hey mister if you're going to walk on water, you know
You're only going to walk all over me

I'm not going to rail against Borges.  I am not qualified to do so, and I am sure there is a plan, even if I don't understand it.  However, I am utterly confused by Michigan's personnel decisions.  Drew Dileo was "The Threat" last week, this week I couldn't remember seeing him on the field.  Devin Funchess was thought to maybe be the next coming of Jim Mandich, now largely absent (admittedly, he dropped an easy one that may have given Bellomy some confidence late in the first half.  Perhaps freshmen are still freshmen.)  Thomas Rawls looks good against Purdue and Illinois, but can't find the field against Nebraska.  I never presume I know more than the people being paid and paid well to do the job, but it is just something confusing.

Omaha
Somewhere in middle America
Get right to the heart of matters
It's the heart that matters more
I think you'd better turn your ticket in
And leave your money right at the door

So we hope that Denard's elbow/hand is OK, we hope that if it's not, Michigan gets its affairs in order this week during practice, and take solace in the fact that the last time we went to Minnesota, in the darkest depths of the autumn of our discontent, a walk-on went 18/30 for 203 and a touchdown and we got five field goals to keep our hands on the Jug.  We may need whatever we can find to keep whatever hopes of Indy, let alone Pasadena, are alive in the most optimistic corners of our hearts.

A Sermon on Thanksgiving

Oh, Hi Denard!

Though problems persist, turmoil has vanished. 

Though the memories linger, the wounds have healed. 

Though the clouds hover, the storm has passed. 

Joy has returned. 

I missed you.  I missed you more than I realized.  I missed this feeling.  I cannot even remember the last time I had it.  Complete, unadultered joy.  No questions, no fear, no complaints, just joy.  I wanted to say the 2007 Notre Dame game, but that was actually coming off of the heels of arguably the darkest darkness, so instead I'll drop back to 2006 when Michigan destroyed a #2 Notre Dame team in South Bend 47-21.  The difference today is we know better.  In 2005, we thought 7-5 was "the year of infinite pain" (and even that year had…"Henne…Fires to the end zone…TOUCHDOWN Manningham, Michigan wins!") It's different and it's better.  We've been down in the hole, and now, here we are, all of the sudden, looking at the possibility that this team could be headed to a BCS bowl.  Just one more obstacle remains.  The most important of all obstacles.  The Game.

And since I proved last week I am not above using the hoariest of cliches, allow me to now list what I am thankful for with regard to Michigan football:

• Greg Mattison and his understanding of blitz schemes.
• Brady Hoke and his understanding of the rivalries and his willingness to go for the throat.
• Al Borges and his realization that he had Denard Robinson at quarterback.
• Denard Robinson for being so easy to appreciate as both an athlete and as a person.
• Fitz Toussaint for the way he's making the second and third cut.
• Tay Odoms for sticking with it, even when reason and logic would have forgiven him otherwise.
• Rich Rodriguez for the athletes he brought to Ann Arbor during his three seasons here.
• Jordan Kovacs for doing the things that a former walk-on can do with commitment and effort.
• David Brandon for creating the future*
• The Michigan Marching Band for the weeks when they are not doing fanservice to the student section.
• DTE Energy for making lemonade out of lemons.
• The student section for getting there mostly on time and for being an auditory play clock for the team when they were heading southbound in the first quarter.
• Nebraska fans for being classy and passionate without being jerks.
• Jon Falk for being Jon Falk
• The Michigan Daily sports reporters for killing it.  Every. Single. Week.
• The awesome people in my well curated MGoTweet feed.
• Brian Cook for saying better what most of us are thinking.
• Geoff for, five years ago, giving me a place to say all of this that was on my mind, and for having a killer tailgate.
• Jeremy, for doing awesomely underrated stuff on here.
• David, for being the rookie of the year for his awesome contributions here.

So go, eat some turkey, enjoy some great games on Thursday and Friday, and then remember that Saturday, at noon, in front of the largest crowd watching a football game anywhere in America that day, only two words matter.  Two words only.

Beat Ohio.

*-No, I'm really not thankful for everything that has been done to create the future.  I just worry if I don't say it, it looks like I am ungrateful for those future creations which I do enjoy.

Divide and Conquer

When I was in high school, nigh on 15 years ago, I would frequently kill time in class by designing divisional alignments for a Big Ten that would add a twelfth team and thus a championship game. That 12th team was always Notre Dame and I would always end up frustrated that the divisions would never ever seem to work out right.

Fast forward to the Brave New World of Conference Realignment and the one simple fact that on June 11, 2010, the Big Ten welcomed the University of Nebraska-Lincoln as the conference's 12th member. The Big Ten will now fully welcome the cash cow that is a championship game and will need, under NCAA rules, to figure out how to split into divisions to make that happen.

So, what will these divisions look like, and how does the Big Ten try to make the fairest, most logical, most cost effective divisions possible. (Please note: Only football needs to be in divisions. Every other sport can just be one nice big 12 team division.) Below, some thoughts, rocking out to R.E.M.'s Monster to get me back into the old high school mindset.

Before I reinvent the wheel, MaizeandBlueWahoo did some nice ground work on the topic as an MGoBlog diary, covering the classic "East/West" and "North/South" divisions.

One of the fundamental questions the league will need to answer is, what do you want to do about Michigan/Ohio State. As Michigan-centric as that question might seem, the rivalry, even if one sided of late, is still the rivalry, and knowing that it is the centerpiece of much of the tradition of the Big Ten, the rivalry must be preserved. I know that Michigan and Ohio State will not approve any divisional scheme that fails to make sure that The Game is played every year come November and this means you need to look into one of three things (as brilliantly stated and shamelessly stolen from Twitter friend Rebecca Stanek:

1. Michigan and Ohio State are in the same division. They’re guaranteed to play each other every season, but then can never play against each other in the Big Ten Championship game.

2. Michigan and Ohio State are in different divisions. Some years they meet in the Big Ten Championship game.

3. Michigan and Ohio State are in different divisions, but are guaranteed to face each other every year. And if there’s a rematch in the championship game, so be it. This is maybe the best solution, although it’s probably unfair to be locked in to the same team year after year for one of the (few) out-of-division, in-conference games. (It would work better in a 12-team conference than in a 16-team conference, for sure.)

This also applies to other major Big Ten rivalries (as defined by their permanent status in the current Big Ten schedule): Iowa/Minnesota, Minnesota/Wisconsin, Iowa/Wisconsin, Illinois/Northwestern, Illinois/Indiana, Indiana/Purdue, Purdue/Northwestern, Penn State/Ohio State, Michigan/Michigan State, and Michigan State/Penn State. Nebraska should also figure in to this mix and I suspect that Iowa will be the first permanent rival and Wisconsin the second (dropping the Wisconsin/Iowa game as a permanent rival and making a four way quadumverate of hate on the western edge.) Jim Delany stated that rivalries are important, but not all rivalries are created equally.

One of the other issues is, does having two major rivals in the same division diminish the importance of the rivalry if they could not meet in the championship game? I think that divisional rivalries are important. Consider: Texas/Oklahoma, Auburn/Alabama, Florida/Georgia, Florida/Tennessee, Alabama/LSU, Nebraska/Colorado, Kansas/Missouri, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State, North Carolina/Duke, and Virginia/Virginia Tech are all major rivalry games that are/were contained within the same division. The ACC and SEC have a "permanent rival" model for cross-divisional games, and it looks like of the 12 permanent rivalry games, the only ones that "wow" are Florida State/Miami, Auburn/Georgia ("The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry"), Alabama/Tennessee (The Third Saturday in October), NC State/North Carolina (important, but not the NC/Duke game), LSU/Florida. Everything else feels "compelled". So does that mean anything?

Now that we have all of this down, here are some of my proposed notions:

Alternating Alphabetical Triads

One and Three:

Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State

Two and Four:

Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin

All I did in this one is take the 12 schools by their common name, sort them alphabetically, and divide them into four groups of three. I then took the groups and alternated them, leaving us with the grouping above.

Why is this one compelling? Because it balances the "Big Four" problem (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Nebraska are four of the seven programs in Division I-A with the most all-time victories. Balancing them 2 and 2 is likely important.) It shows that divisions need not be based on geography where football is involved. From a Michigan-centric perspective, it would ensure that Michigan would play for Penn State every year, Michigan State every year, and for the Jug every year (not important to every one, important to me.) The permanent rivals could be:

Michigan-Ohio State
Purdue-Indiana
Minnesota-Iowa
Wisconsin-Nebraska
Michigan State-Northwestern
Penn State-Illinois

I feel a little bit bad about the last two, because they feel compelled (even Wisconsin/Nebraska feels a little forced, but I already dealt with that above.)

Not bad, but can we do better.

Inside/Outside Alphabetical Triads

One and Four:

Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Two and Four:

Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Ohio State

This one isn't as good as the model above, in part because it leaves a three/one split for the Big Four. I do think the one advantage is the permanent rivalries feel a little more "real". To wit:

Michigan-Penn State
Michigan State-Indiana
Minnesota-Wisconsin
Nebraska-Iowa
Northwestern-Purdue
Ohio State-Illinois

With the exception of the Michigan-Penn State and Nebraska-Iowa games, each of these games is a trophy game. The Big Ten would probably be pretty happy about Michigan against Ohio State, Nebraska, and Penn State every year. Honestly, of the models, this one is the most favorable to preserving Michigan's rivalries, but the divisions don't feel balanced.

The reality is that Mark Rudner and Mike McComiskey at the Big Ten office probably have dozens of magnet schedule versions of this kind of thing and are consulting with the 12 athletic departments of the conference to figure out the best possible configuration. I wish them well. For now, it's fun to speculate.

Quick note: The Big Ten now breaks readily down into three longitudinal triads:

West:

Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Wisconsin

Central:

Illinois
Indiana
Northwestern
Purdue

East:

Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State

If were a way to guarantee that each of these teams could play each other annually in a two division format, I think everyone would be happy (OK, Nebraska would be happiest, because that east is an absolute nightmare.) (By the way, doing four longitudinal groups of three is even worse, because it's Michigan/Ohio State and Penn State on the far east side.)

One more completely insane one: The Rich/Poor Divisions, based on the school's endowment:

* Michigan - $6.00 billion
* Northwestern - $5.45 billion
* Minnesota - $2.07 billion
* Ohio State - $1.65 billion
* Purdue - $1.46 billion
* Wisconsin - $1.37 billion

* Indiana - $1.23 billion
* Penn State - $1.23 billion
* Nebraska - $1.15 billion
* Illinois - $1.11 billion
* Michigan State - $1.05 billion
* Iowa - $766 million

Permanent rival games:

Michigan-Michigan State
Northwestern-Illinois
Minnesota-Iowa
Ohio State-Penn State
Purdue-Indiana
Wisconsin-Nebraska

Am I crazy, or does that work out pretty darn well?