KRACHing Up

Hockey and basketball are better than football in one important regard: There are enough games played to develop a fairly robust Bradley-Terry probability model, and the main virtue of this model is that it allows us to get a reasonable idea of how likely one team is to beat another. So let's jump in and see what the numbers predict.

In college hockey, the Bradley-Terry rating is called KRACH (Ken's Rankings for American College Hockey), and I've pulled the latest numbers from College Hockey News.

Team	KRACH	Prob. to win semi-final	Prob. to win tournament
Notre Dame	468	66.64%	40.00%
Michigan	234.3	33.36%	14.39%
Ohio State	370.2	61.25%	30.54%
Minnesota-Duluth	234.2	38.75%	15.07%

The bad news: According to KRACH, Michigan has the worst chance of any team to win the Frozen Four. This is because they face the hardest path: KRACh thinks Notre Dame is significantly better than Ohio State, and Michigan is worse than both of them. If Michigan made it to the final and found UMD there, they would be a slight favorite on truly neutral ice.

The good news: Hockey Plinko is still Hockey Plinko. A hot goalie can steal a game, and a single weird bounce can make an enormous impact. Meanwhile, nobody has been playing better hockey than Michigan recently.

Bradley-Terry rankings for college basketball (and football can be found at dbaker's site. You can find either ratings that care about margin of victory or ones that don't.

Basic Bradley-Terry

Team	Rating	Prob. to win semi-final	Prob. to win tournament
Villanova	21.619	61.38%	41.36%
Kansas	13.600	38.62%	21.83%
Michigan	11.483	55.24%	21.53%
Loyola-Chicago	9.3029	44.76%	15.29%

Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry

Team	Rating	Prob. to win semi-final	Prob. to win tournament
Villanova	11.277	68.20%	46.87%
Kansas	5.2574	32.80%	16.13%
Michigan	5.9095	58.80%	23.69%
Loyola-Chicago	4.1399	41.20%	13.32%

Both sets of rankings give the basketball team a better chance of winning a title than the hockey team. Bare bones, who-did-you-beat Bradley-Terry gives Michigan a 21.53% chance of winning it all. If you add in margin of victory, Michigan squeaks up to a 23.59% chance of winning.

The rankings also show how good Loyola's resume is looking these days. Michigan is somewhere between a 55.24% and 58.80% favorite in Saturday's game. That's not much! Villanova, meanwhile is either a 61.38% or 68.20% favorite against Kansas. People would rightly view it as an upset if Kansas wins, but it wouldn't have the shock value of a commuter school beating a name brand team, even though the numbers say Michigan is closer to Loyola than Kansas is to Villanova.

To get into the numbers a little deeper, both sets of numbers give Michigan about a 34.5% chance of beating Villanova in a final. They disagree about whether Michigan is a favorite or a dog to Kansas. the basic numbers have them at 45.78%, while the margin-aware numbers are at 52.92%, so that sounds like an even battle.

Finally, the big questions: What are the chances we win everything that's up for grabs? What are the chances that we win at least one title? Well, the chance that we win either of two independent events is the sum of their probabilities. Therefore, depending on which basketball rating you use, we have either a 35.92% or 38.07% chance of one team bringing home a title. And to compute the probability that both happen, you multiply them together, giving us either a 3.10% or 3.41% chance of bringing home a truly ridiculous amount of hardware. So I'm saying there's a chance.

Hockey Previews 2013: Midwest

Huntington Center - Toledo, Ohio

St. Cloud State tied with Minnesota for the WCHA regular-season title, so seeing them as the 13th overall seed is kind of strange. But the Huskies were swept at New Hampshire and split with RPI, so that'll tank your Pairwise ranking. St. Cloud was reasonably consistent in the regular season before falling to a Wisconsin team on a mission in the WCHA tournament semifinals. Drew LeBlanc (13-37--50) and Nic Dowd (14-25--39) are both scoring at better than 1 ppg, while Jonny Brodzinski (21-11--32) is the goals leader. Ryan Faragher (2.29 GAA/0.914 SV%) is your netminder here.

Minnesota State is the contrasting case to St. Cloud: They went 1-0-1 versus RPI, beat Brown and UConn at the UConn Hockey Classic, and swept Providence to get a big Pairwise bump. Otherwise, they're in the logjam for 4th in the WCHA, tied with DU and Wisconsin. The dangermen for the Mavericks are Matt Letner (17-30--47) and Eriah Hayes (20-16--36), with Stephon Williams (1.96 GAA/0.925 SV%) handling most of the goaltending duties.

Miami won the CCHA's final regular season championship, but fell hard to Michigan in the tournament semifinal, 6-2. This edition of the RedHawks isn't quite as high-powered as years past, but Riley Barber (15-23--38) and Austin Czarnik (14-24--38) provide plenty of spark. Ryan McKay (1.37 GAA/0.948 SV%) and Jay Williams (1.94 GAA/0.924 SV%) have split time down the middle. McKay got the starts in the conference tournament, but was yanked after giving up 4 to Michigan, the first time he gave up more than 2 all season.

Notre Dame finished just 3 points behind Miami in the CCHA, and won the final Mason Cup in a textbook suffocation of a Michigan team that had caught fire at the end of the year. The Irish played an aggressive nonconference schedule, splitting with North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth earlier in the year. Anders Lee is still around (how is he only a junior?!), and leads the team with a 20-18--38 line. Junior Steven Summerhays had a couple of bumps in the road in February, but has kept everyone else to 3 or fewer goals, carrying a 1.94 GAA/0.922 SV% line.

Hockey Previews 2013: East

Dunkin' Donuts Center - Providence, R.I.

Canisius finished 12-13-2 in Atlantic Hockey, and have earned the program's first *ever* tournament berth via a Cinderella run through the conference tournament. The Griffins are on an 8-game winning streak, trouncing Mercyhurst 7-2 in the tournament final. Junior Kyle Gibbons (20-22--42) leads the Griffins in all major offensive categories, and no one is within .25 ppg of him, and Tony Capobianco (2.35 GAA/0.930 SV%) has been the guy in net all season.

Union is your ECAC tournament champion, defeating brown 3-1 in the final after lighting up Yale 5-0 in the semis. The Dutchmen had an aimless December through February, but got it together for the tournament. Senior Wayne Simpson (16-17-33) is your G/P leader, though junior Daniel Carr is close behind at 16-10--26, and three different defensemen have 18 assists. Colin Stevens (1.62 GAA/0.931 SV%) has seen significant game action, but Troy Grosenick (2.06 GAA/0.928 SV%) has been in net for the big moments.

Boston College finished second to UMass-Lowell by a single point in the regular season and dropped the semifinal of the conference tournament to hated crosstown rival BU, but it's useless to talk about things like this when it comes to the Eagles. What really matters: BC has won 2 of the last 3 / 3 of the last 5 national championships. Parker Milner is lugging around a pedestrian 2.59 GAA/0.912 SV%, but he won a national title last year. Johnny Gaudreau (20-30--50), Steven Whitney (26-19--45), and Pat Mullane (16-27--43) are your biggest dangermen.

Quinnipiac finds itself in the unusual position of leading the nation in the Pairwise. They went 1-0-1 against Ohio State, swept Nebraska-Omaha, and eked out a win at Maine while dominating their ECAC schedule. It's a pretty good way to get the #1 overall seed. KRACH has them at #2 overall, so it isn't all smoke and mirrors, but they still have something to prove in the tournament. The Bobcats will try to do that behind senior Eric Hartzell (1.52 GAA/0.934 SV%) in net. Quinnipiac doesn't score a lot of goals -- senior Jermey Langlois 0.79 ppg (12-18--30) is scoring at the fastest clip, but they really don't let in many either. Should be interesting to see this play out.

Hockey Previews 2013: West

Yale comes into the tournament scuffling. They had a 5-game losing streak in February, then lost to Union and Quinnipiac in the conference tournament. Their best result all year is probably a 3-3 tie with BC. But KRACH still has them as the #13 team in the country so...? The Elis are top-heavy in their scoring, with Kenny Agostino, Andrew Miller, and Antoine Laganiere the only guys with 10+ goals, and only three more guys (including defenseman Tommy Fallen) with 10+ assists. Senior goalie Jeff Malcolm has been putting up a 2.42 GAA / 0.914 SV%, so nothing extraordinary there. Yale doesn't look like a tough out on paper, but a senior-heavy team shouldn't be overlooked.

Niagara finished 7 points ahead of runner-up Air Force in the Atlantic Hockey regular season before coming up short to underdog Canisius in the tournament, and a win against the Falcons is probably their most impressive result. Ryan Murphy (15-21--36) and Giancarlo Iuorio (21-13--34) are by far the offensive leaders, and Carsen Chubak (1.91 GAA/0.939 SV%) is the guy in net. The Purple Eagles didn't play a name-brand non-conference schedule, so this is a wildcard.

North Dakota wasn't a dominating machine at any point in its schedule, but showed flashes of brilliance, like a 6-1 demolition of Denver at Magness. The Fighting NoDaks feature a high-powered offense lead by seniors Danny Kristo (26-26--52) and Corban Knight (15-33--48). Clarke Saunders (2.26 GAA/0.916 SV%) and Zane Gothberg (2.46 GAA/0.920 SV%) have split time in net, with junior Saunders getting a few more games than the freshman.

Minnesota tied for the regular season WCHA title with St. Cloud State, along the way becoming the #1 team in the country in KRACH and #2 in the Pairwise. They came up short to Colorado College in the seminfinals of their final WCHA tournament, but have had a solid season throughout. Erik Haula (16-35--51) has a massive number of assists, while Nick Bjugstad (21-15--36) is the goals leader. Freshman Adam Wilcox (1.88 GAA/0.921 SV%) is the clear #1 netminder.

Hockey Previews 2013: Northeast

Verizon Wireless Arena (Manchester, NH)

Wisconsin finished tied with Denver in the WCHA, and with a better overall record than the Pioneers, but the vagaries of the Pairwise make the Badgers a 4 seed and the Pioneers a 2. Wisconsin struggled through a very slow start and were winless through October and November, excepting a lone 2-0 victory at Minnesota. But they put together a North Dakota-like late season and are now on a 6-game winning streak that included the WCHA championship. Junior Michael Mersch is by far the leader in goals, with a 23-13--36 line, with fellow junior Tyler Barnes trailing at 15-15--30. No other Badger has more than 10. Mark Zengerle is the assists leader (9-23--32) and super-frosh Nick Kerdiles is the assists leader at 10-22--32. Sophomores Joel Rumpel and Landon Peterson have been splitting time in net, but Rumpel has been the go-to guy down the stretch with a 1.85 GAA on a .933 SV%.

Denver started strong, but had a rough patch of an 8-game winless streak in late November/early December. The Pioneers have been more up than down after that, but still lost in the first round of the WCHA playoffs to Colorado College. If anything, they'll be well-rested, having not played since March 17. Six different Pioneers have more than ten goals, and the leader in that category is senior Shawn Ostrow (15-11--26), while junior Nick Shore is the points and assists leader (14-19--33). Sophomore goalie Juho Olkinuora is the main netminder, with a 2.28 GAA and 0.929 SV%.

New Hampshire finished tied for third in Hockey East and lost a hard-fought three-game series to Providence in the Hockey East quarterfinals. Still, they're hosting in Manchester, so to Manchester they go. Kevin Goumas (10-32--42) has a pile of points, with defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk (8-25--33) not that far behind. Three different UNH players have 15 goals -- Grayson Downing, John Henrion, and Austin Block. Casey DeSmith (2.24 GAA/0.924 SV%) handles the tools of ignorance.

UMass-Lowell had the most extraordinary season in team history this year, capturing both the Hockey East regular season title and the tournament crown as well. The first couple of months of the year weren't anything special, but the River Hawks were very strong down the stretch. The only caveat on their season is that they were 1-2 against BC, and didn't have to face the Eagles in the Hockey East tournament. Five different Lowell players are at 10+ goals, and 11 have 10 or more assists, so the scoring is pretty balanced. Riley Wetmore (15-11--26) and Scott Wilson (15-19--34) are your goal leaders and Joseph Pendenza (13-23--36) is your points leader. Freshman Connor Hellebuyck (1.39 GAA/0.949 SV%) and junior Doug Carr (2.79 GAA/0.897 SV%) have seen a nearly equal amount of game action, but Hellebuyck is almost certainly the guy for the tournament.

2013 NCAA Hockey Christmas Challenge

Is your NCAA Tournament bracket busted? Has Hockey Christmas quickly turned into Hockey Passover?  Is your state not in the tournament for the first time since 1979? Well, I present the 2013 NCAA Hockey Christmas Tournament Challenge.

Instead of picking a bracket, which you can do and I am sure someone, say, Mark Coen, will be more than happen to accept your bracket, in this Tournament Challenge, you pick four schools. Any four schools in the tournament. You want to pick all one seeds? You can do that. You want to pick four schools all in the same region? You can do that? You pick four teams. For each round that a team wins, you multiply their seed by their round score. Round scores are:

Regional Semi-Final: 1 point

Regional Final: 4 points

National Semi-Final: 8 points

National Championship: 32 points

So, if you would like to play, just submit to me, via message, in the comments below, or by some other means, by Friday at noon, your four teams. No money, no prizes, just for pride. Also, please, by all means, tell your friends.

Enjoy, and a Merry Hockey Christmas to all!

NORTHEAST (Verizon Wireless Arena - Manchester, N.H.)

(NE1) UMass Lowell vs. (NE4)Wisconsin

(NE2) Denver vs. (NE3) New Hampshire

EAST (Dunkin' Donuts Center - Providence, R.I.)

(E1) Quinnipiac vs. (E4) Canisius

(E2) Boston College vs. (E3) Union

MIDWEST (Huntington Center - Toledo, Ohio)

(MW2) Miami vs. (MW3) Minnesota State

(MW1) Notre Dame vs. (MW4) St. Cloud State

WEST (Van Andel Arena - Grand Rapids, Mich.)

(W1) Minnesota vs. (W4) Yale

(W2) North Dakota vs. (W3) Niagara

The Northeast and West brackets will open play on Friday, while the other two uncap the semifinals on Saturday. Winners in each bracket will advance to the Frozen Four, which will be held April 11 and 13, for the first time at Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

West and Northeast play in one National Semi-Final, East and Midwest play in the other.

[L 3-2 (OT)]^3

I cannot necessarily claim credit for creating the term Hockey Christmas.  I sincerely believe it may have been Geoff's creation.  I will, however, state that my affinity for that term as shorthand for NCAA Hockey Regionals has led me, time and again, to use the term.  In retrospect, it is a term better served to describe the anticipation of the weekend than the actual weekend itself.

Except, perhaps not.  Christmas, after all, is often eagerly anticipated, especially in one's younger days. But as you get older, it becomes more difficult, more people want a piece of your time.  You're dealing with disappointment, resentment, old lingering wounds in the family that never quite heal, but need to be spoken to (or not).  People love the holiday season; it's the details that get them, every year.  Some years are better than others, but many times you just end up being happy the whole thing is over.

So maybe it is less "Hockey Christmas" and more "Hockey Near Death Experience" as suggested by Brian Cook.  Having lived the experience, we know all too well that the Plinko board of single-elimination playoff hockey is simultaneously thrilling and miserable.  But I cannot help but think the universe is trying to send Michigan Hockey a message.

2010: Fort Wayne.  Loss, 3-2 Double Overtime after a disallowed Michigan goal.
2011: Saint Paul.  Loss, 3-2 Overtime after a disallowed Michigan goal.
2012: Green Bay.  Loss, 3-2 Overtime after a disallowed Michigan goal.

This is not to say that the disallowed goal was the reason Michigan lost.  I think the special teams nightmare in the second period is a pretty concrete reason to point to as to why Michigan lost.  But I cannot help but think that the game turned on its heels after the disallowed goal (I can't be sure, like much of SE Michigan, we couldn't see the first fifteen game time minutes of the contest due to an ESPNU switching issue.  Shocking.  (I know, I shouldn't complain, we should be happy we can see the games at all, but seriously...) So I had to rely on my ESPN3 stream, which took some time to get going.)  Cornell buckled down because they had seen their near death and made some life changes.  Michigan didn't play like a team that was upset that they had had a goal disallowed, but they also didn't seem sharp.  When Kevin Lynch scored late in the third to tie it up, it was like there was some cosmic justice, that the narrative was demanding "Puck don't lie."  But as we learn in sports, narratives are not things to be followed, but meaning to be extracted later.  So when the juicy rebound off Hunwick found its way on to Rodger Craig's stick and then, second later, into the back of the Michigan net, the narrative was not about how Michigan overcame disappointment and a scare, but how Shawn Hunwick's last act in a Michigan uniform was to retrieve the puck from the back of the net and give it to the Cornell coaching staff.  That is how this story ends, that is how the stories of the last three seasons have ended; with Hunwick digging a third goal out of the back of his net in overtime in an arena somewhere in the Big Ten footprint, but a million miles away from what college hockey should feel like.

Maybe we're stupid.  Maybe we're just a bunch of Charlie Browns, convinced that the NCAA Tournament's Lucy will not pull the football away this time, because this time it will be different.  Tampa will see two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, all regular season champions of the four major NCAA hockey conferences, perhaps a nice way of reminding us what is going to be lost when the Great Schism occurs at the end of next season.  All teams dressed in red or a shade thereof, celebrating because their Christmas party hasn't ended yet.  We're left to lament, left to lament this players whom we shall miss, left to lament that the common bond we share with so many strangers goes into hibernation for seven months, left to lament that the pride one holds in history is not the same as the joy of a successful present.

But we shall return to this place because it holds something for us.  It holds a belief in what can be if everything breaks correctly.  It holds the promise of being in on a secret that not enough know about, but those who do know share the bond with you.  When we come back to Yost next fall, it will not be the Yost we have known, but a new Yost designed to remind us of the old one, blending the future with the past.  We shall stare down our last CCHA season, wonder who will step in to the void and will there be enough to make sure its 23 in a row, but hopefully one with a happier ending.

Next year in Pittsburgh.

2012 NCAA Hockey Christmas Tournament Challenge

Is your NCAA Tournament bracket busted? Are you looking for a shot a redemption? Don't want to end up a cartoon in a cartoon graveyard? Well, I present the 2012 NCAA Hockey Christmas Tournament Challenge.

Instead of picking a bracket, which you can do and I am sure someone, say, Mark Coen, will be more than happen to accept your bracket, in this Tournament Challenge, you pick four schools. Any four schools in the tournament. You want to pick all one seeds? You can do that. You want to pick four schools all in the same region? You can do that? You pick four teams. For each round that a team wins, you multiply their seed by their round score. Round scores are:

Regional Semi-Final: 1 point

Regional Final: 4 points

National Semi-Final: 8 points

National Championship: 32 points

So, if you would like to play, just submit to me, via message, in the comments below, or by some other means, by Friday at noon, your four teams. No money, no prizes, just for pride. Also, please, by all means, tell your friends.

Enjoy, and a Merry Hockey Christmas to all!

Midwest Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)

(MW1)Michigan (CCHA At-Large)

(MW4)Cornell (ECAC At-Large)

(MW3)Denver University (WCHA At-Large)

(MW2)Ferris State (CCHA At-Large CCHA Regular Season Champions)

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)

(E1)Union (ECAC Regular Season and Playoff Champions)

(E4)Michigan State (CCHA At Large)

(E3)Massachusetts-Lowell (Hockey East At-Large)

(E2)Miami University (CCHA At-Large)

Northeast Regional (Worchester, Massachusetts)

(NE2)Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA At-Large)

(NE3)Maine (Hockey East At-Large)

(NE4)Air Force Academy (Atlantic Hockey Regular Season & Playoff Champion)

(NE1)Boston College (Hockey East Regular Season & Playoff Champion)

West Regional (Minneapolis, Minnesota)

(W2)Minnesota (WCHA At Large, WCHA Regular Season Champion)

(W3)Boston University (Hockey East At-Large)

(W4)Western Michigan (CCHA Playoff Champions)

(W1)North Dakota (WCHA Playoff Champions)

West and Northeast play in one National Semi-Final, East and Midwest play in the other.

A Tale for Hockey Advent: Un abominable chandail d'or sur la glace

Flin Flon, Manitoba, there's not an iota of rightness of hue
Your five-buck currency I must say fervently
Is the wrong shade of blue (not Pantone 282).

The winters of my childhood were long seasons, but getting shorter each year. We lived in three places - the school, Panchero's, and the skating-rink - but our real life was on the skating-rink. Tremendous battles were won on the skating-rink. Tremendous strength appeared on the skating-rink. The leaders and best showed themselves on the skating-rink. School was a sort of punishment. Politicians always want to punish children and evaluating teachers based on standardized tests is their most natural way of punishing us. However, school was also a quiet place where we could prepare for the next hockey game, lay out our next strategies. As for Panchero's, we found there the piquancy of Cholula: there we forgot the school tests and dreamed about the next hockey game. Through our daydreams it might happen that we would recite a prayer: we would ask Bo to help us play as well as Carl Hagelin.

We all wore the same uniform as he once had, the maize and blue uniform of the Michigan Wolverines, the best college hockey team in the world; we all combed our hair and grew it long in the same style as Carl Hagelin, and to keep it in place we used Axe - a great deal of Axe. We laced our skates like Carl Hagelin, we taped our sticks like Carl Hagelin. We posted all his highlights on our Facebook timelines. Truly, we knew everything about him, as we all followed his Twitter feed.

On the ice, when the referee blew his whistle the two teams would rush at the puck; we were five Carl Hagelins taking it away from five other Carl Hagelins, with two Shawn Hunwicks guarding the nets; we were twelve players, all of us wearing with the same blazing enthusiasm the uniform of the Michigan Wolverines. On our backs, we all wore the famous number 12, but for the two goalies, who wore the famous number 31.

The Hardest Part

I'll make this quick. The hardest part about the National Championship game last night was that there's no new lesson to glean from it. When you take penalties, you're going to have a hard time winning. When you can't get the puck into the opponent's zone, you're going to have a hard time winning. When you can't get a change in overtime, it's going to be almost impossible to win.

In the long run, maybe it's a lesson about rising expectations. When Michigan won the West Regional, I did not see how, realistically, Michigan could beat North Dakota. I hoped they would, I put together scenarios on how they could, but I just could not see it. But, after 60 minutes of panic and fear, Michigan was one game away from being national champions. I saw all of the old ghosts, the shutout in the national semi-final, wearing the maize jerseys, all of those things, and presumed that fate was going to intervene, especially when it was 2-2 going to overtime. But, alas, it was not to be.

So let's sum up in the best way we can. Hats off to Minnesota-Duluth, a worthy champion. Hats off to Red, for being Red, my favorite coach ever. Hats off to this senior class, because you were probably the most fun group of seniors since the 1997 senior class. Hats off the the Children of Yost, for being the best student section in any sport anywhere in America. Hats off to the Michigan Hockey blogger community, for being passionate, articulate, and an awesome read throughout the season. Hats off to the Michigan Daily's hockey coverage, one of the absolute best groups of writers I have ever read. Hats off to Geoff for driving us to cover Hockey Christmas once more in the way we knew we could. Hats off to all of you for being a part of Hockey Christmas.

Last and certainly not least, Next Year in Tampa Bay.

Can't Hardly Wait!

Michigan looked exceptional in every phase of the game, shutting down CC's lava-hot power play unit, getting to loose pucks, winning battles in the corners, and ringing shots off the post like it was their job. A late CC scramble goal made it a high anxiety finish, but in the end, Michigan has punched its ticket to its 24th Frozen Four. In honor of the next two weeks of anticipation and the greatest Minnesota band of all time...

Hail Yes!

Ten heart rending minutes of review leads to a great geometric conclusion, if the puck goes fore, you must call it a score. On to the Regional Final. Great game UNO! Celebratory Homestar Runner!

West #3: Nebraska-Omaha

University of Nebraska at Omaha Mavericks

#3 seed vs. Michigan
West Regional (Scotttrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
Friday, March 25, 2011


At-Large Berth from the WCHA

Record: 21-15-2
Head Coach: David Letterman Dean Blais

We're going to be as serious as possible on this one, because, as Michigan's regional semi-final opponent, we suspect that maybe, just maybe, you'd like to know what the Maize and Blue are up against on Friday.  We understand this.  Let's start with coach Dean Blais, who was brought in by UNO Athletic Director Trev Alberts (yes, that Trev Alberts) to ramp up the Maverick hockey program to new heights.  In just his second year behind the bench in Omaha (and the school's first in the WCHA), Blais has garnered UNO's second trip to the NCAA tournament, and as one of my friends put it to my bluntly, "I am loathe to bet against Blais in a tournament setting."  He has a point.  Blais resume includes 5 30+ win seasons at North Dakota and two national championships for the Fighting [NICKNAME] and he lead the USA Hockey World Junior team to the gold medal in Saskatoon in 2009-2010.  He is a coach who gets the most out of his talent and whose team will play hard every shift.  Michigan split their (non-conference) season series with the Mavs, losing on Friday night 4-2 before blitzing them 6-1 on Saturday night (because, remember, Michigan loves Saturday nights.  Hopefully Michigan remembers it can't play on Saturday if it doesn't get it done on Friday.)  Omaha is also a team that is much better somewhere in middle America, going 13-6-1 at home, but just 8-9-1 on the road this year.

One of the Lights in August for the Mavericks is sophomore goaltender John Faulkner.  Third team all-WCHA this season, Faulkner seems to be your classic mercurial goalie, sometimes being the unvanquished (posting six shutouts), while other times, being full of sound and fury, signifying nothing (he's allowed three or more goals in seven of his last eleven games.) (Stick tap to INCH for that tidbit.)  Faulkner, a native of Yoknapatawpha County Sarnia, will need to be something better than a Pylon if the Mavericks hope to make it to St. Paul.

If Nebraska-Omaha is going to make it to the Regional Finals, it's going to need to find the balanced scoring attack that was its hallmark throughout the season.  No Maverick has more than 17 goals, but eight players have double digit goals.  UNO has not scored more than two goals in any of its last five games, so it will either need to play lock down defense and hope that Faulkner is more than an Intruder in the Dust.  There is no doubt that this team is a tough out, and it can make some noise if it rediscovers its early season form.

West #4: Colorado College

Colorado College Tigers

#4 seed vs. Boston College
West Regional (Scotttrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
Friday, March 25, 2011


At-Large Berth from the WCHA

Record: 22-18-3
Head Coach: Scott Owens

How do we say this politely?  Colorado College probably doesn't make the field in most years, but thanks to a weak bubble, a team just four games over break even gets in to the field as the the 14th overall seed.  Going 5-4-1 down the stretch (including five straight games against Wisconsin due to a scheduling quirk where they played them on the last weekend of the regular season, then in a best two of three in the WCHA first round), CC doesn't limp into tournament, but they're also not charging in hard.  They're a special teams nightmare, in that being top 10 in the nation in the Power Play (40% of the teams goals come on the man advantage) is balanced by the fact that they have given up a nation's worst 11 shorthanded goals.  (Like Michigan Tech, the Tigers are clearly NOT doing it for the shorties.)

So, how does CC get by the defending national champions?  Well, for starters, they'll need the Schwartz(es) to be with them, as brother combination of freshman Rylan and sophomore Jaden power a scoring line with the Tigers' leading scorer Stephen Schwartz.  They'll need to play well on even strength.  They'll need some puck luck.  So yes, basically, they'll need all of the things you normally need as a #4 seed if you want to upset the top seed.  Will the Tigers be burning bright on Friday?  We'll see.


(On a non-hockey note, this seems as good a place as any to send our best wishes to NFL Films President (and Colorado College alumnus) Steve Sabol, who has begun treatment this week for a brain tumor.)

Midwest #1: North Dakota

University of North Dakota Fighting [NICKNAME]

#1 seed vs. RPI
Midwest Regional (Resch Center, Green Bay, WI)
Saturday, March 26, 2011


Automatic Qualifier from the WCHA
WCHA Regular Season Champions

Record: 30-8-3
Head Coach: Dave Hakstol

(Before we start, yes North Dakota is still fighting over the "Fighting Sioux" nickname and logo, at the state legislature level, so, while they're working that out, we're going with Fighting [NICKNAME] and allowing the reader to make their own choice.)

North Dakota comes in to Hockey Christmas as the hottest team in the country.  We're talking solar fusion hot, 12-0-1 in their last thirteen games, their last loss coming to Colorado College in late January (OK, four of those games were against Michigan Tech, in which NoDak beat the Huskies by a combined 28-4 margin, but you have to play the teams on your schedule and two of the games were in Houghton, so...)  North Dakota is arguably the scariest team in the tournament from top to bottom.  One major question mark is the health of Jason Gregoire, who was, before his injury, racking up the points like it was a game of Duck Hunt.

Continuing one of the great NCAA Hockey traditions, North Dakota continues to have the best hockey names, and currently has a first pairing defenseman on their roster named Ben Blood.  Ben Blood.  Seriously, his jersey IS the blood jersey!

Matt Frattin is lighting the upper Great Plains ablaze, scoring 35 goals in North Dakota's 41 games this season and chipping in 22 helpers and sophomore goalie Aaron Dell clearly shakes off bad games well, the question becomes, in a one and done format, can you avoid that bad game?  North Dakota looks to keep rolling, trying not to look too far ahead to a potential rematch with Denver in the Regional Final and a trip back to St. Paul, but if Dave Hakstol's team plays as they have over the last two months, they could win title number 7 8 (thanks for the correction!).

Midwest #3: Western Michigan

Western Michigan University Broncos

#3 seed vs. Denver
Midwest Regional (Resch Center, Green Bay, WI)
Saturday, March 26, 2011


At-Large Berth from the CCHA

Record: 19-12-10
Head Coach: Jeff Blashill

Good on ya, Western Michigan.  Last season, Western finishing in 12th place in the CCHA.  They won 8 games all season and scored just 76 goals.  In just his first season as ABCDEFGHI got a boss in Kalamazoo, Jeff Blashill has righted the Broncos ship of state, and the Broncos scored 77 goals this year (in CONFERENCE PLAY, a total of 114 overall.) and suddenly the Broncos are making their fourth appearance in the tournament and their first since I was a senior in high school.  (Criminy, I'm old.)

Western Michigan's greatest strength is mental, they clearly are a team that comes out every night confident not only that they can play with anyone in the country, but that they can BEAT anyone in the country.  Blitzing Michigan on the Friday night of the CCHA Semi-Finals, they could have easily folded against Miami Saturday night when the RedHawks jumped out to a not insignificant early lead, but instead clawed their way back in to make it a game.  If Western is going to break a few eggs against Denver in order to win the Omelette Cup (Western and Denver*, Western and Denver, winner plays the winner of Spanish vs. Moons over My-Hammy (of Ohio)**), they'll need the tough-minded, disciplined approach that got them to this point.

This seems as good a point as any to point out that notable Western Michigan hockey alumni include ESPN's John Saunders, CBC's Glenn Healy, Versus' Keith Jones, and Carl's dad, Boris Hagelin.

The Dark Dark Dark Brown and Metallic Gold are paced by senior Max Campbell, (who was held scoreless last weekend at the Joe) and Freshman Chase Balisy, who has just a great hockey name.  But, and if we've said it once, we've said it 16 times, if Western wants to get to St. Paul, it's going to rest on the blocker and trapper of senior netminder Jerry Kuhn.  Western fans should feel confident that they will give Denver a heck of a game and at this point in the year, you really cannot ask for much more than that.  Good luck Broncos!***

*-Yes, technically a Western Omelette and a Denver Omelette are the same thing.
**-I'm sorry, "My Hammy University."
***-We hold no ill will towards Western or its fans, particularly because the kids in Kalamazoo seem genuinely and sincerely behind this team.  Plus, Western is the easy answer for "Where's Waldo?"

Midwest #4: RPI

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Engineers

#4 seed vs. North Dakota
Midwest Regional (Resch Center, Green Bay, WI)
Saturday, March 26, 2011


At-Large Berth from ECAC

Record: 20-12-5
Head Coach: Seth Appert

We promise that, despite our desire to do so, this entire preview will not be written in Dutch.  But first, let's screw with your head.  Puckman, can you come over here for a moment:

I'm not anti-science, but clearly RPI's experiments in genetic engineering have gone too far.  That thing doesn't even have eyes man!  "What sin can a puckman commit in a single lifetime to bring this upon himself?"  Plus, it's carrying a stick, which means he's clearly a self-flagellate.  Seriously, this just raises further questions.  I'm going to need a few minutes...

All right, yes, so the Engineers, 1985 National Champions, alma mater of Adam Oates, school so committed to engineering that its nickname is the Engineers and not, say "the Beavers" or "the Beavers".  Rolling early in the season, a 2-6-1 finish, complete with a loss in the first round of the ECAC playoffs, the Engineers hope that the final version, released this weekend will pass muster.  RPI will also be facing the classic hockey question of rest vs. rust, having not played in two weeks, as opposed to North Dakota being extended to double OT by the Pioneers last weekend.

So yes, basically, Hobey Top Ten Finalist Chase Polacek, some...oh goodness, he's coming right for us!

Northeast #1: Miami

Miami University RedHawks

1 seed vs. New Hampshire, Northeast Regional (Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH)
CCHA Tournament Champions
Record: 23-9-6
Coach: Enrico Blasi


The Miami RedHawks come into this game unbeaten in their last 13, and winners of their last 7 straight, including a 6-2 decimation of Notre Dame in the CCHA semifinals and a 5-2 thumping of Western Michigan in the championship game, which gave them their first banner at the Joe.

It didn't always seem like it would be this way for the RedHawks. Prior to that streak, they were wandering around getting swept by Ohio State and losing 4-7 to a Michigan State team that finished 10th in conference. The next night after the MSU loss, Enrico Blasi sat four skaters he didn't think were playing up to their potential, the RedHawks shut out the Spartans 4-0, and the current unbeaten streak was born.

This year's Miami team looks a lot like other Miami teams of recent vintage: They lead the CCHA in offense, behind senior Hobey Baker candidate Andy Miele, who leads the nation in points by a whopping 14 with his eye-popping 24-47--71 line. However, Miele doesn't even lead his own team in goals. That honor goes to his left wing, freshman Reilly Smith (28-26--54). Somewhere in the middle is a guy who'd be in the mix for the Hobey if he played on any other team, fellow senior Carter Camper, whose 19-37--56 is good for #3 in the nation in points. Camper centers what is nominally the fourth line, while Miele and Smith are on the top line with Trent Vogelhuber.

Miami's goaltenders Cody Reichard (2.05 GAA, .911 SV%) and Connor Knapp (2.03 GAA, .909) are both juniors and are nearly statistically identical, and both have seemingly taken a step back from last year, where each posted a .921 SV%.

It's also worth noting that the RedHawks as a team are #2 in the nation on the powerplay and an identical #2 on the penalty kill, the only team in the country in the top 5 in both special teams areas. So it's probably a bad idea to take penalties against Miami, but they don't hurt themselves that much when they go to the box.

Northeast #2: Merrimack

Merrimack College Warriors

2 seed vs. Notre Dame,
Northeast Regional (Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH)
At-large bid from Hockey East

Record: 25-9-4
Coach: Mark Dennehy

Merrimack is making their first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 1988, their only other trip to the big dance as a Division I program. The Warriors are led this year by sophomore Stephane Da Costa (14-30--44), who centers the top line where freshman Jesse Todd (17-14--31) leads the team in goals. Including Da Costa and Todd, seven different Warriors have 10 or more goals, and 15 have at least 10 points. In net, Joe Cannata (.911 sV%, 2.44 GAA) has taken the vast majority of minutes, appearing in all 38 of Merrimack's games played.

Founded in 1947, Merrimack is a speck of a liberal arts college in North Andover, Massachusetts with a total undergraduate population of just over 2,000. It's a Roman Catholic institution associated with the Augustinian order that competes in Division II in all sports but hockey. It's presumably named after the Merrimack River that flows through Andover, not the Civil War ironclad.

Merrimack plays a high-flying style of hockey that can see them thrash Maine 7-1 on January 8th and then get beaten down 0-4, 1-7 by that same Maine team February 25-26th, then sweep the Black Bears 5-4, 6-2 two weeks later. The Warriors were in the running for the last #1 seed for much of the season, but thanks in large part to that Maine series and another stumble at hapless Providence, Merrimack slips in as the #5 overall seed to land in Manchester. Who knows which Merrimack team is going to show up in the NCAAs, but it should be entertaining to watch.

Northeast #3: Notre Dame

University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish

#3 seed vs. Merrimack College,
Northeast Regional (Verizon Wireless Arena, Manchester, NH),
Saturday, March 26, 2011


At-Large Berth from the CCHA

Record: 23-13-5
Head Coach: Jeff Jackson 

(Editor's Note: This is as good a place as any to remind you that while the official policy of the Hoover Street Rag is "To Hell with Notre Dame", we would be remiss not to mention The House that Rock Built's continuing web puppet series "Stuffing the Passer" , which deserves like an Emmy or something.)

Cheer, cheer for old second place.  Notre Dame's hockey program rises, alongside Miami, as the future of the CCHA, particularly as the Big Ten Hockey Conference becomes a reality in 2013.  A new arena (consciously modeled on Yost, because imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and since it will match Notre Dame Stadium's design being modeled after Michigan Stadium, but we digress) opens next season and Jeff Jackson has spent the last six seasons showing what a school that strives to excel in everything it does can do if they have the right coach, the right attitude, and the right players.  (It also does not hurt that under NCAA rules, once per season, Jeff Jackson gets to invoke the doctrine of papal infallibility due to his resemblance to His Holiness, Pope Benedict XVI.)

Notre Dame is coming in to the tournament on whatever the exact opposite of a roll is.  Flatbread, maybe?  Anyway, losing 4 of their last 7, including both games last weekend at the Joe in the CCHA Championship, if Notre Dame wants to make any noise, and be the threat to advance to Saint Paul that they looked as recently as mid-February, they'll need all-around improvement, starting with their scoring punch.  No Irish defenseman registered a point at the Joe, and part of the fear with Notre Dame is that their two biggest scoring threats this season T.J. Tynan and Anders Lee are freshmen playing in their first tournament game, in what will likely be a pretty hostile environment (we presume Merrimack fans will travel, right?)  Big weekends from Calle Ridderwall and Riley Sheahan will go a long way to sending the Irish to the Xcel in two weeks, rather than counting the days until the Compton Family Center opens next fall. 

(Oh, and by the way, Bryan Rust, yeah, it's Matt's brother.  No word if Bryan never sleeps either. )