Light On

The end that was.

Would you believe me now if I told you I got caught up in a wave?

Almost gave it away

Would you hear me out if I told you I was terrified for days?

Thought I was gonna break

Oh, I couldn't stop it

Tried to slow it all down

Crying in the bathroom

Had to figure it out

With everyone around me saying

"You must be so happy now."

--"Light On" by Maggie Rogers, the final song written for her 2018 debut album Heard It In a Past Life

It was always going to end this way.  Not because we wanted it to be, not because we deserved it, but because it is the way it has been for nearly three decades.  Michigan has a hockey team good enough to make the Frozen Four, and, unless it shuts its opponent out, loses the national semi-final, usually in overtime.

Oh, if you keep reaching out

Then I'll keep coming back

And if you're gone for good

Then I'm okay with that

If you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

"Light On" is a dreadfully ironic choice of title and theme for a post about the conclusion of another hockey season that, like most do, ended with a loss.  All Michigan had to do was turn the (goal) light on one more time, and they would have assured the Big Ten its first NCAA men's hockey championship since 2007 and the first since the league began sponsoring men's hockey.  They took shot after shot after shot, all of varying quality, and at one point right before the bitter end, Michigan was outshooting Denver 52-25.  The consensus of the media, fans, and the Michigan team itself was that Michigan was largely the better team in the second period, third period, and both overtimes.  But as college hockey so frequently reminds us, the best team is not the one that plays the best over the course of the game, rather it is the one that finds a way to score more goals than it allows.  Yes, it is the entire point of the game: score at least one more goal than your opponent, and you are declared the winner.  Once again, Michigan, which by several metrics looked like the best and most complete team in the country over the course of a regular season, will not get to hang a banner honoring the completion of that journey.  There are no banners for "#1 NPI" after all.

And I am finding out

There's just no other way

That I'm still dancing at the end of the day

If you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

The natural tendency after a season-ending loss is a combination of sadness, regret, lamentation, bitterness, and doubt.  Perhaps because there were so many stats at the ready showing the futility of Michigan in the NCAA tournament since it won its ninth title in 1998, coupled with the frustration of a game that ended around 12:50 AM EDT, there seemed to be a lot of questioning by fans in the Michigan hockey hive on Bluesky as to why we do this to ourselves, invest emotionally in a team that seems to get up to within view of the summit, only to fall all the way down the mountain in a painful, but often predictable way.  

And do you believe me now that I always had the best intentions, babe?

Always wanted to stay

Can you feel me now that I'm vulnerable in oh-so-many ways?

Oh, and I'll never change

But we love it.  Hockey is the best because it is the worst.  Hockey shows you so many tremendously skilled things on any given night, coupled with exceptional physicality, that makes it so compelling to watch.  There is no other sport quite like it.  That the NCAA tournament is single-elimination does not make hockey bad; it just allows a significant amount of randomness to enter the sample.  As I explained to my son on Monday when he asked me before the men's basketball title game if I was more nervous about that game or Thursday (meaning the Frozen Four game), I said Thursday without hesitation.  He looked at me and asked why, and I explained that dozens of things have to go wrong for a team to lose a basketball game.  One thing and only one thing has to go wrong to lose a hockey game.  And I've seen it happen a dozen times and more.  Obviously, this is an oversimplification of an emotional truth.  One could easily argue that every shot Michigan took last night that didn't go in was something that went wrong, for instance.  But it doesn't feel that way when the overtime winning goal goes into the net for the opponent.  That's what went wrong; it was all over for another year.  

Oh, I couldn't stop it

Tried to figure it out

But everything kept moving

And the noise got too loud

With everyone around me saying

"You should be so happy now

Yes, let us acknowledge that it is understandable if folks outside the Michigan fandom would like to give us a bit of side-eye for being sad about this loss, given that Michigan won the men's basketball team, something so many of us deeply enjoyed and celebrated literally earlier this week.  We should be so happy now!  It's a valid argument.  I thoroughly enjoyed this year's men's basketball team and the title run was amazing and unforgettable.  But at the same time, Michigan hockey has always been my second-favorite Michigan sport, and it honestly might be my co-favorite with football.  Every spring for the past thirty years, I have geared up to watch Michigan make a run in the NCAA tournament, and after feeling very good about the two titles in three years at the start of that, the next quarter century, give or take, has been season after season of frustration in various ways, shapes, and forms.  That so many of those shapes and forms look similar, I think, is what makes it so challenging emotionally.  We're watching a new movie, but we recognize the tropes.  We know what the doombringer generally looks and sounds like, and we're just waiting for it to come.  But we want to believe it will be different because it can be different.  After all, it has been different.  But it hasn't been that way during the 21st century.  This is not a case for giving up or abandoning the thing you love; it's just acknowledging that it's not necessarily going to bring you the ultimate joy that you long for.  And maybe that's OK.  And maybe it isn't, but only you can make that choice.  

Oh, if you keep reaching out

Then I'll keep coming back

And if you're gone for good

Then I'm okay with that

And if you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

And I am finding out

There's just no other way

That I'm still dancing at the end of the day

If you leave the light on

Then I'll leave the light on (Light on, light on, light on)

Maggie Rogers might be my favorite musical artist whose entire output is from the 21st century.  In the decade since her Masterclass moment with Pharrell at NYU went viral, she has put out a significant amount of absolutely banger indie pop/folk/rock.  In a 2018 tweet, Maggie herself explained that "Light On" was a note to her fans and her friends and loved ones who supported her before and after her sudden fame, that she had to understand everything that had happened to her, how it had changed her, but also how it had not, and how that could alter relationships with people known and unknown.  The future is unknowable; all you can do is chart a course for yourself and hope that people will want to join you on that journey.  The past is not destiny any more than the future is predetermined.  Maybe next time will be different, because it can be different.  We'll leave the light on.

Next year in Washington.

Base Camp

"Don't look back, you can never look back."

The most fascinating thing about getting close to the goal while failing to achieve it is the feeling at the end of it.  Sports provides so many winners and losers, as is the nature of competition, but of the 68 teams in the NCAA basketball tournament, only one ends their season with a victory.  Even if a team that has won five games before succumbing, once more outperforming its seed, it still ends its season on a loss.  After all, loss is the business of determining a champion, and perhaps it is much more meaningful to dissect what went wrong rather than what went right.  We have statistical analysis to tell us what should happen, given what has happened before, but as any good financial services commercial is required to advise you, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

If sports is just a weighted random number generator around which we construct narratives, it is probably still OK because the tales are fascinating if some effort is put into the construction.  Triteness, that fast trope, is easy, quick, and the friend of someone on deadline.  It requires no real depths to be plumbed, it uses the familiar horizons of the well-worn path to allow its reader a quick understanding of what happened.  If there really are just seven basic plots in the world (overcoming the monster; rags to riches; the quest; voyage and return; comedy; tragedy; rebirth); Michigan's basketball and hockey seasons actually featured snippets from all of them to create a sophisticated narrative that I am not strong enough, as a writer, to fully elucidate for the reader.  We create our own meanings, we reflect our own biases in what this meant, trying to understand the seasons as a means of understanding ourselves better.  We look into a maize and blue tinted mirror and hope that we know ourselves a little bit more for the first time.

To get close enough to see the mountain top but fail to complete the ascent is frustrating in metaphor and potentially tragic in reality.  So much of literature tells us that it is the journey that matters, not the destination (Big Ten Network has made a narrative flourish on that very premise).  But it is a matter of perspective.  If one had fully prepared to make the ascent, had the best guides, the best hear, the best training, it would be effortless to feel the depth of disappointment and realize the abjectness of the failure.  It is another thing to be climbing and climbing and climbing and realize too late, like a mountaineering Wile E. Coyote, that you are at a more considerable elevation than you ever thought possible, and truth be told, is probably not healthy for you.  That moment where it all evaporates is painful, but the journey, every handhold, every crevasse, becomes etched into your memory because you don't know if you'll ever be back up this mountain, and even if you are, it won't be with this team of climbers.

We wanted more, so did they.  We didn't get more for reasons of which they are all too fully aware.  We also got more out of the climb than we would have allowed ourselves in the first place.  Pride and disappointment can safely coexist, if for no other reason than both have stakes attached.  Just as we told ourselves that we weren't sure what Poole's shot meant at the moment because we had to see what played out after that, we aren't sure what this season means without knowing if it was a prelude, or a missed opportunity, or both.

But since January, man, it was fun while it lasted.

KRACHing Up

Hockey and basketball are better than football in one important regard: There are enough games played to develop a fairly robust Bradley-Terry probability model, and the main virtue of this model is that it allows us to get a reasonable idea of how likely one team is to beat another. So let's jump in and see what the numbers predict.

In college hockey, the Bradley-Terry rating is called KRACH (Ken's Rankings for American College Hockey), and I've pulled the latest numbers from College Hockey News.

Team	KRACH	Prob. to win semi-final	Prob. to win tournament
Notre Dame	468	66.64%	40.00%
Michigan	234.3	33.36%	14.39%
Ohio State	370.2	61.25%	30.54%
Minnesota-Duluth	234.2	38.75%	15.07%

The bad news: According to KRACH, Michigan has the worst chance of any team to win the Frozen Four. This is because they face the hardest path: KRACh thinks Notre Dame is significantly better than Ohio State, and Michigan is worse than both of them. If Michigan made it to the final and found UMD there, they would be a slight favorite on truly neutral ice.

The good news: Hockey Plinko is still Hockey Plinko. A hot goalie can steal a game, and a single weird bounce can make an enormous impact. Meanwhile, nobody has been playing better hockey than Michigan recently.

Bradley-Terry rankings for college basketball (and football can be found at dbaker's site. You can find either ratings that care about margin of victory or ones that don't.

Basic Bradley-Terry

Team	Rating	Prob. to win semi-final	Prob. to win tournament
Villanova	21.619	61.38%	41.36%
Kansas	13.600	38.62%	21.83%
Michigan	11.483	55.24%	21.53%
Loyola-Chicago	9.3029	44.76%	15.29%

Margin-Aware Bradley-Terry

Team	Rating	Prob. to win semi-final	Prob. to win tournament
Villanova	11.277	68.20%	46.87%
Kansas	5.2574	32.80%	16.13%
Michigan	5.9095	58.80%	23.69%
Loyola-Chicago	4.1399	41.20%	13.32%

Both sets of rankings give the basketball team a better chance of winning a title than the hockey team. Bare bones, who-did-you-beat Bradley-Terry gives Michigan a 21.53% chance of winning it all. If you add in margin of victory, Michigan squeaks up to a 23.59% chance of winning.

The rankings also show how good Loyola's resume is looking these days. Michigan is somewhere between a 55.24% and 58.80% favorite in Saturday's game. That's not much! Villanova, meanwhile is either a 61.38% or 68.20% favorite against Kansas. People would rightly view it as an upset if Kansas wins, but it wouldn't have the shock value of a commuter school beating a name brand team, even though the numbers say Michigan is closer to Loyola than Kansas is to Villanova.

To get into the numbers a little deeper, both sets of numbers give Michigan about a 34.5% chance of beating Villanova in a final. They disagree about whether Michigan is a favorite or a dog to Kansas. the basic numbers have them at 45.78%, while the margin-aware numbers are at 52.92%, so that sounds like an even battle.

Finally, the big questions: What are the chances we win everything that's up for grabs? What are the chances that we win at least one title? Well, the chance that we win either of two independent events is the sum of their probabilities. Therefore, depending on which basketball rating you use, we have either a 35.92% or 38.07% chance of one team bringing home a title. And to compute the probability that both happen, you multiply them together, giving us either a 3.10% or 3.41% chance of bringing home a truly ridiculous amount of hardware. So I'm saying there's a chance.

Hockey Returns

Oh happy day, hockey season is back.  Michigan already has three game-like substances in the books, though only one actually counts.  In an odd road opener at Ferris State on October 4, the Wolverines dug themselves an early hole, first hanging Nagelvoort out to dry on a breakaway and then leaving a Bulldog unattended at the point, all within the first 2 minutes of the season, and Ferris added a power-play tally to make it 3-0 at the end of the first period. Tyler Motte scored immediately to open the second period, but an ill-timed pinch gave up a short-handed goal to push Ferris's lead back to 3.  Michigan carried play for most of the third and clawed back with a pair of goals, but ultimately came up short, losing 4-3.  If I was told prior to the start of the game that Michigan would drop its road opener to defending WCHA champion Ferris State 4-3, I would take it.  Falling behind 3-0 is somewhat more disappointing, but this was overall a good result.

The USNTDP came over to Yost just two days later for an exhibition game, and Michigan pulled away in a wild one to win 7-4. Given that the Under 18s have won the last two meetings with the Wolverines, this represents significant progress.  Michigan then played their third game of the week on Thursday when they welcomed Wilfrid Laurier as their annual Canadian collegiate opponent. For the first time this year, Michigan scored first. The Wolverines pushed their lead out to 3-0 by the end of the first period and were up 4-0 before the Golden Hawks put one in the net. The game ended 5-2, with Steve Racine taking over for Nagelvoort after the second intermission and posting a clean sheet.

On Friday, New Hampshire pays a visit to Yost in return for the Wolverines' trip last year. Both games went to overtime, with UNH stealing one and the other ending in a tie.  Michigan and New Hampshire find themselves in similar situations this year: Both teams had up and down seasons last year with records of over .500, but neither of them reached the NCAA tournament.  The Wildcats lost their exhibition game with Canada's St. Francis Xavier 2-0 and their first non-conference game of the season to Union, the defending NCAA Champions, 3-1.

Know of Foe: University of Waterloo

With apologies to the M-Zone, we continue our annual "Know of Foe" series, previewing Michigan's preseason Canadian opponent. This year, the University of Waterloo Warriors come to Yost.

Instead of a full breakdown of the history of the university, I'm going to share a story from a visit I had there a few years ago. After the day's events were concluded, I was treated to dinner and conversation turned to the big story on campus at the time, the discovery that nine players of the football team had tested positive for steroids after one of their wide receivers was arrested for trafficking. The university suspended the football team for the 2011 season.

After two professors offered their opinions on the state of the scandal at the time, a third volunteered the following question, "We have a football team?" So it's not exactly a rabid athletic culture.

Recognizing this logo is not a requirement for getting a tenure-track position anywhere.

As for the university, Waterloo is the Canadian version of Cal/Georgia/M.I. Tech. It's renowned for its Faculty (not department) of Mathematics and the high quality of its computer science and engineering programs. They'd probably produce some great sports analytics if they cared about sports. The university's prowess in technical fields spun off to the founding of Research in Motion (which was a big deal for a while) and also the independent Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. Stephen Hawking hangs out there sometimes. Waterloo's notable alumni include astronaut/Internet sensation Chris Hadfield and Keeper of the Cup Walt Neubrand.

Waterloo hockey finished sixth out of nine in the OUA West Division with a 12-11-5 W-L-OTL record with a 98-104 GF/GA ratio, so that's as an ideal example of "slightly below average." And we can be pretty sure they're not on steroids. Let's say 4-2, Michigan. You can tell I didn't put a lot of thought into predicting this game this year.

Hockey Previews 2013: Midwest

Huntington Center - Toledo, Ohio

St. Cloud State tied with Minnesota for the WCHA regular-season title, so seeing them as the 13th overall seed is kind of strange. But the Huskies were swept at New Hampshire and split with RPI, so that'll tank your Pairwise ranking. St. Cloud was reasonably consistent in the regular season before falling to a Wisconsin team on a mission in the WCHA tournament semifinals. Drew LeBlanc (13-37--50) and Nic Dowd (14-25--39) are both scoring at better than 1 ppg, while Jonny Brodzinski (21-11--32) is the goals leader. Ryan Faragher (2.29 GAA/0.914 SV%) is your netminder here.

Minnesota State is the contrasting case to St. Cloud: They went 1-0-1 versus RPI, beat Brown and UConn at the UConn Hockey Classic, and swept Providence to get a big Pairwise bump. Otherwise, they're in the logjam for 4th in the WCHA, tied with DU and Wisconsin. The dangermen for the Mavericks are Matt Letner (17-30--47) and Eriah Hayes (20-16--36), with Stephon Williams (1.96 GAA/0.925 SV%) handling most of the goaltending duties.

Miami won the CCHA's final regular season championship, but fell hard to Michigan in the tournament semifinal, 6-2. This edition of the RedHawks isn't quite as high-powered as years past, but Riley Barber (15-23--38) and Austin Czarnik (14-24--38) provide plenty of spark. Ryan McKay (1.37 GAA/0.948 SV%) and Jay Williams (1.94 GAA/0.924 SV%) have split time down the middle. McKay got the starts in the conference tournament, but was yanked after giving up 4 to Michigan, the first time he gave up more than 2 all season.

Notre Dame finished just 3 points behind Miami in the CCHA, and won the final Mason Cup in a textbook suffocation of a Michigan team that had caught fire at the end of the year. The Irish played an aggressive nonconference schedule, splitting with North Dakota and Minnesota-Duluth earlier in the year. Anders Lee is still around (how is he only a junior?!), and leads the team with a 20-18--38 line. Junior Steven Summerhays had a couple of bumps in the road in February, but has kept everyone else to 3 or fewer goals, carrying a 1.94 GAA/0.922 SV% line.

Hockey Previews 2013: East

Dunkin' Donuts Center - Providence, R.I.

Canisius finished 12-13-2 in Atlantic Hockey, and have earned the program's first *ever* tournament berth via a Cinderella run through the conference tournament. The Griffins are on an 8-game winning streak, trouncing Mercyhurst 7-2 in the tournament final. Junior Kyle Gibbons (20-22--42) leads the Griffins in all major offensive categories, and no one is within .25 ppg of him, and Tony Capobianco (2.35 GAA/0.930 SV%) has been the guy in net all season.

Union is your ECAC tournament champion, defeating brown 3-1 in the final after lighting up Yale 5-0 in the semis. The Dutchmen had an aimless December through February, but got it together for the tournament. Senior Wayne Simpson (16-17-33) is your G/P leader, though junior Daniel Carr is close behind at 16-10--26, and three different defensemen have 18 assists. Colin Stevens (1.62 GAA/0.931 SV%) has seen significant game action, but Troy Grosenick (2.06 GAA/0.928 SV%) has been in net for the big moments.

Boston College finished second to UMass-Lowell by a single point in the regular season and dropped the semifinal of the conference tournament to hated crosstown rival BU, but it's useless to talk about things like this when it comes to the Eagles. What really matters: BC has won 2 of the last 3 / 3 of the last 5 national championships. Parker Milner is lugging around a pedestrian 2.59 GAA/0.912 SV%, but he won a national title last year. Johnny Gaudreau (20-30--50), Steven Whitney (26-19--45), and Pat Mullane (16-27--43) are your biggest dangermen.

Quinnipiac finds itself in the unusual position of leading the nation in the Pairwise. They went 1-0-1 against Ohio State, swept Nebraska-Omaha, and eked out a win at Maine while dominating their ECAC schedule. It's a pretty good way to get the #1 overall seed. KRACH has them at #2 overall, so it isn't all smoke and mirrors, but they still have something to prove in the tournament. The Bobcats will try to do that behind senior Eric Hartzell (1.52 GAA/0.934 SV%) in net. Quinnipiac doesn't score a lot of goals -- senior Jermey Langlois 0.79 ppg (12-18--30) is scoring at the fastest clip, but they really don't let in many either. Should be interesting to see this play out.

Hockey Previews 2013: West

Yale comes into the tournament scuffling. They had a 5-game losing streak in February, then lost to Union and Quinnipiac in the conference tournament. Their best result all year is probably a 3-3 tie with BC. But KRACH still has them as the #13 team in the country so...? The Elis are top-heavy in their scoring, with Kenny Agostino, Andrew Miller, and Antoine Laganiere the only guys with 10+ goals, and only three more guys (including defenseman Tommy Fallen) with 10+ assists. Senior goalie Jeff Malcolm has been putting up a 2.42 GAA / 0.914 SV%, so nothing extraordinary there. Yale doesn't look like a tough out on paper, but a senior-heavy team shouldn't be overlooked.

Niagara finished 7 points ahead of runner-up Air Force in the Atlantic Hockey regular season before coming up short to underdog Canisius in the tournament, and a win against the Falcons is probably their most impressive result. Ryan Murphy (15-21--36) and Giancarlo Iuorio (21-13--34) are by far the offensive leaders, and Carsen Chubak (1.91 GAA/0.939 SV%) is the guy in net. The Purple Eagles didn't play a name-brand non-conference schedule, so this is a wildcard.

North Dakota wasn't a dominating machine at any point in its schedule, but showed flashes of brilliance, like a 6-1 demolition of Denver at Magness. The Fighting NoDaks feature a high-powered offense lead by seniors Danny Kristo (26-26--52) and Corban Knight (15-33--48). Clarke Saunders (2.26 GAA/0.916 SV%) and Zane Gothberg (2.46 GAA/0.920 SV%) have split time in net, with junior Saunders getting a few more games than the freshman.

Minnesota tied for the regular season WCHA title with St. Cloud State, along the way becoming the #1 team in the country in KRACH and #2 in the Pairwise. They came up short to Colorado College in the seminfinals of their final WCHA tournament, but have had a solid season throughout. Erik Haula (16-35--51) has a massive number of assists, while Nick Bjugstad (21-15--36) is the goals leader. Freshman Adam Wilcox (1.88 GAA/0.921 SV%) is the clear #1 netminder.

Hockey Previews 2013: Northeast

Verizon Wireless Arena (Manchester, NH)

Wisconsin finished tied with Denver in the WCHA, and with a better overall record than the Pioneers, but the vagaries of the Pairwise make the Badgers a 4 seed and the Pioneers a 2. Wisconsin struggled through a very slow start and were winless through October and November, excepting a lone 2-0 victory at Minnesota. But they put together a North Dakota-like late season and are now on a 6-game winning streak that included the WCHA championship. Junior Michael Mersch is by far the leader in goals, with a 23-13--36 line, with fellow junior Tyler Barnes trailing at 15-15--30. No other Badger has more than 10. Mark Zengerle is the assists leader (9-23--32) and super-frosh Nick Kerdiles is the assists leader at 10-22--32. Sophomores Joel Rumpel and Landon Peterson have been splitting time in net, but Rumpel has been the go-to guy down the stretch with a 1.85 GAA on a .933 SV%.

Denver started strong, but had a rough patch of an 8-game winless streak in late November/early December. The Pioneers have been more up than down after that, but still lost in the first round of the WCHA playoffs to Colorado College. If anything, they'll be well-rested, having not played since March 17. Six different Pioneers have more than ten goals, and the leader in that category is senior Shawn Ostrow (15-11--26), while junior Nick Shore is the points and assists leader (14-19--33). Sophomore goalie Juho Olkinuora is the main netminder, with a 2.28 GAA and 0.929 SV%.

New Hampshire finished tied for third in Hockey East and lost a hard-fought three-game series to Providence in the Hockey East quarterfinals. Still, they're hosting in Manchester, so to Manchester they go. Kevin Goumas (10-32--42) has a pile of points, with defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk (8-25--33) not that far behind. Three different UNH players have 15 goals -- Grayson Downing, John Henrion, and Austin Block. Casey DeSmith (2.24 GAA/0.924 SV%) handles the tools of ignorance.

UMass-Lowell had the most extraordinary season in team history this year, capturing both the Hockey East regular season title and the tournament crown as well. The first couple of months of the year weren't anything special, but the River Hawks were very strong down the stretch. The only caveat on their season is that they were 1-2 against BC, and didn't have to face the Eagles in the Hockey East tournament. Five different Lowell players are at 10+ goals, and 11 have 10 or more assists, so the scoring is pretty balanced. Riley Wetmore (15-11--26) and Scott Wilson (15-19--34) are your goal leaders and Joseph Pendenza (13-23--36) is your points leader. Freshman Connor Hellebuyck (1.39 GAA/0.949 SV%) and junior Doug Carr (2.79 GAA/0.897 SV%) have seen a nearly equal amount of game action, but Hellebuyck is almost certainly the guy for the tournament.

Know of Foe: University of Windsor

With apologies to the M-Zone, we present the second installment of "Know of Foe," our annual preview of Michigan hockey's Canadian exhibition opponent.

After today's Blue vs. White game, Michigan takes on its first extramural competition this season with a visit from the University of Windsor Lancers. No university in Canada is closer to the U.S. border, and the university's Wikipedia page helpfully notes: "Many students take advantage of their proximity to Michigan for cultural, recreational and educational opportunities." Located in the shadow of the Ambassador Bridge, UWindsor students and faculty spend most of their days hoping that Matty Maroun's dilapidated span of corruption doesn't collapse on top of them.

(Political aside: First, make sure you're registered to vote. Second, vote no on Proposal 6. Canada's giving you a free bridge, for Pierre's sake!)

"The contemporary design [of the logo] speaks to many of the school’s values of creating dynamic connections and forward momentum." The wordmark is "clean, bold, and sophisticated." Seriously.

UWindsor introduced a new logo in 2007, and, unless you want to read some of the most contentless corporate speak imaginable, do not click on that link. At the same time, they adopted the slogan "thinking forward," which supposedly "states the University's vision for the future and claims the leadership position in its sector," whatever the hell that means. Considering that UWindsor has a long-held reputation of one of Ontario's safety schools, it probably means they plan to stop being a safety school. Best of luck with that!

WOO-HOO!!!!!!

HOCKEY SEASON STARTS TODAY!

[L 3-2 (OT)]^3

I cannot necessarily claim credit for creating the term Hockey Christmas.  I sincerely believe it may have been Geoff's creation.  I will, however, state that my affinity for that term as shorthand for NCAA Hockey Regionals has led me, time and again, to use the term.  In retrospect, it is a term better served to describe the anticipation of the weekend than the actual weekend itself.

Except, perhaps not.  Christmas, after all, is often eagerly anticipated, especially in one's younger days. But as you get older, it becomes more difficult, more people want a piece of your time.  You're dealing with disappointment, resentment, old lingering wounds in the family that never quite heal, but need to be spoken to (or not).  People love the holiday season; it's the details that get them, every year.  Some years are better than others, but many times you just end up being happy the whole thing is over.

So maybe it is less "Hockey Christmas" and more "Hockey Near Death Experience" as suggested by Brian Cook.  Having lived the experience, we know all too well that the Plinko board of single-elimination playoff hockey is simultaneously thrilling and miserable.  But I cannot help but think the universe is trying to send Michigan Hockey a message.

2010: Fort Wayne.  Loss, 3-2 Double Overtime after a disallowed Michigan goal.
2011: Saint Paul.  Loss, 3-2 Overtime after a disallowed Michigan goal.
2012: Green Bay.  Loss, 3-2 Overtime after a disallowed Michigan goal.

This is not to say that the disallowed goal was the reason Michigan lost.  I think the special teams nightmare in the second period is a pretty concrete reason to point to as to why Michigan lost.  But I cannot help but think that the game turned on its heels after the disallowed goal (I can't be sure, like much of SE Michigan, we couldn't see the first fifteen game time minutes of the contest due to an ESPNU switching issue.  Shocking.  (I know, I shouldn't complain, we should be happy we can see the games at all, but seriously...) So I had to rely on my ESPN3 stream, which took some time to get going.)  Cornell buckled down because they had seen their near death and made some life changes.  Michigan didn't play like a team that was upset that they had had a goal disallowed, but they also didn't seem sharp.  When Kevin Lynch scored late in the third to tie it up, it was like there was some cosmic justice, that the narrative was demanding "Puck don't lie."  But as we learn in sports, narratives are not things to be followed, but meaning to be extracted later.  So when the juicy rebound off Hunwick found its way on to Rodger Craig's stick and then, second later, into the back of the Michigan net, the narrative was not about how Michigan overcame disappointment and a scare, but how Shawn Hunwick's last act in a Michigan uniform was to retrieve the puck from the back of the net and give it to the Cornell coaching staff.  That is how this story ends, that is how the stories of the last three seasons have ended; with Hunwick digging a third goal out of the back of his net in overtime in an arena somewhere in the Big Ten footprint, but a million miles away from what college hockey should feel like.

Maybe we're stupid.  Maybe we're just a bunch of Charlie Browns, convinced that the NCAA Tournament's Lucy will not pull the football away this time, because this time it will be different.  Tampa will see two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, all regular season champions of the four major NCAA hockey conferences, perhaps a nice way of reminding us what is going to be lost when the Great Schism occurs at the end of next season.  All teams dressed in red or a shade thereof, celebrating because their Christmas party hasn't ended yet.  We're left to lament, left to lament this players whom we shall miss, left to lament that the common bond we share with so many strangers goes into hibernation for seven months, left to lament that the pride one holds in history is not the same as the joy of a successful present.

But we shall return to this place because it holds something for us.  It holds a belief in what can be if everything breaks correctly.  It holds the promise of being in on a secret that not enough know about, but those who do know share the bond with you.  When we come back to Yost next fall, it will not be the Yost we have known, but a new Yost designed to remind us of the old one, blending the future with the past.  We shall stare down our last CCHA season, wonder who will step in to the void and will there be enough to make sure its 23 in a row, but hopefully one with a happier ending.

Next year in Pittsburgh.

Know of Foe: University of Ontario Institute of Technology

So if you’re excited for Michigan hockey season (and you damn well should be), you may be wondering if there’s some misprint regarding the first exhibition opponent. The University of Ontario Institute of Technology? Is that some kind of bad Russian or Chinese mistranslation? No. UOIT is a real school with a horrible name. With apologies to the M-Zone, we provide a “Know of Foe” for North America’s leading institute of higher misuse of prepositions.

You owe it to yourself to read this informative, entertaining, and otherwise pun-free post.

Although UOIT was founded in 2002, the story of its origin goes back to 1921, when the province on Ontario established a Grade 13. In 1984, Grade 13 became known as “Ontario Academic Credit” (OAC). Think of Grade 13/OAC as the equivalent of Advanced Placement courses - originally, by taking these courses, students would receive university credit. Of course, over time, Grade 13 became mandatory for getting into university instead of merely helpful. This is the same trajectory you can see in the US with AP.

Hockey Jerseys 2011-12

Let me just say that I am, officially, a card carrying member of Uni Watch. (So is Geoff, as a gift from me, he got the MMB uniform.) So it's no surprise that I am tracking Michigan uniform changes, because, well, it's what we do.
So, M-Den put up the new hockey jerseys for 2011-12 tonight and reaction in the Michigan Twitterverse was swift. So let's take this step by step.  (As a reminder, here's what we said in 2008.)

The Home Whites

It's a variation on the much beloved home whites from the last two seasons, swapping in a maize outlined Block M for the M.  I presume that there will be sleeve numbers and number on the chest as well, like the old ones.  I see the faint echo of the 1989 men's basketball jersey in this.  I don't hate it, but there was no need to change last year's look.  That was a classic for the ages.  Also note that Reebok is now the maker of the hockey jerseys, instead of Reebok's parent company adidas.  The logo also moves from the left shoulder to the center.  It's not terrible, it's just unnecessary.

Road Blues

The road blues are largely unchanged from last year, save the slight alterations to the sleeve striping (which I don't get), the shoulder patches now being straight block Ms instead of the Hockey Sticks M, and the Block M now has chain stitching on it.  There will be "OUTRAGE" at this similar to what happened with the Under the Lights jersey, but there is late 20th century/early 21st century Nike precedent for this.  Also, I am pretty sure that the stitching will be the same color, meaning that it will not show up as readily as it does in this image.  I'm wondering if this signals the end of the Hockey Sticks M, but for now, no harm, no foul.

Alternate Maize Thirds

Ditching the Rangers angle lettering to go with consistent Block M branding, this makes the Maize third just a maize version of the road jersey.  It's a little disappointing, because I liked that Michigan had three distinct looks for its three jerseys, but this isn't bad.  I am hopeful that the chain stitching is non contrast, but this isn't a bad look.

Overall, none of these are "bad" as much as the changes feel "unnecessary" and there's kind of disheartening.  It's nothing new.  Go back and look at Michigan hockey's jersey history and you'll see more changes than an EPL team, but I'm mostly disappointed because my hope was for a reverse of the homes where the Block M would be the home whites (with a Maize M outlined in blue) and the road blues would have been the arched Michigan.  I also kind of wish Wolverbear were the shoulder patch.  That would be insanely awesome, if off message.

Have at them below.

Let's Go

It's only a few hours before the puck drops on Michigan's first appearance in the national championship game since 1998, and I find myself totally incapable of coming up with anything that's worth reading. If you want a preview, go over to Yost Built, MichiganHockey.net, mgoblog, or a few other places. Even the preview I wrote in 45 minutes three weeks ago might be worth it.

I saw my first Michigan hockey game in 1993. I was 12, and my family went to see the very first College Hockey Showcase at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Almost by mistake I stumbled on the '96 and '98 national title games in overtime, and in between I went to Day 1 of the '97 GLI. But I can pinpoint the moment that everything changed for me: January 29, 2000.

My friend Sara was a huge Mike Comrie fan, and for her birthday party we all went down and got standing room tickets at Yost. We climbed up and up into the rafters in the north end zone. The game was against Ohio State, and there was a t-shirt giveaway. I wore it for the UNO game just a couple weeks ago. The game was one of those classic ones where the better team takes a ton of shots, but can't get many quality chances. Michigan's Sean Peach scored early, but OSU got one back in the 3rd, and that's how it ended. But not for me.

I think that's how it starts for a lot of Michigan hockey obsessives – You see a game at Yost, and you want more of that. By next season, I was traveling to the CCHA Super Six, and skipping out of a UAC meeting early to watch Michigan die like Vikings against Minnesota in the Frozen Four.

I've never witnessed this moment for Michigan hockey. I've watched three championships in person – '05, '08, and '10 – and none of them featured Michigan.

It's been 13 years since Michigan last made it to this point. I remember the exit in '01 to BC and Brian Gionta (the OG of magic midgets), the furious comeback against Minnesota in '02 that wasn't enough, that horrible thing in '03 to Minnesota where you thought they might just might do the thing but Thomas Vanek is soul-killingly good at hockey. In '04 it was BC again, when scoring chances just seemed to melt away and whistles ceased to exist for vast stretches of the game until it was Ben Eaves connecting on a mid-air rebound and it was over, then in '05 Al Montoya and the rest of the team imploded and let a 3-goal lead to CC evaporate. '06 was a NoDak bludgeoning; '07 was a NoDak bludgeoning where a frustrated TJ Hensick said the magic words and somehow Eric Ehn is walking out of there with his Hobey Baker. I was there in '08 sitting right in front of Brian when Billy Sauer let in a couple soft goals, and one of my favorite Michigan teams ever just ran out of gas in an overtime loss. '09 was Volkening stealing one for Air Force. '10 was Waterloo, Indiana. And even this year: What are the chances we win that game against UNO if the review goes the other way?

My point is this: The best team doesn't always make it this far, the best team doesn't always win, but Michigan has made it this far and they have that chance. And it's almost hard to believe that it exists. I hope they take it.

Can't Hardly Wait!

Michigan looked exceptional in every phase of the game, shutting down CC's lava-hot power play unit, getting to loose pucks, winning battles in the corners, and ringing shots off the post like it was their job. A late CC scramble goal made it a high anxiety finish, but in the end, Michigan has punched its ticket to its 24th Frozen Four. In honor of the next two weeks of anticipation and the greatest Minnesota band of all time...

West #1: Boston College

Boston College Eagles

1 seed vs. Colorado College, West Regional (Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
Friday, March 25, 2011
Hockey East Regular Season Champions
Hockey East Tournament Champions

Record: 30-7-1
Coach: Jerry York

It is a terrible, terrible idea to bet against Boston College and Jerry York in the postseason. The last four times BC has made the NCAA tournament, they've at least made it to the championship game. They've won it twice in the last three years: In 2008 over Notre Dame, then last year against Wisconsin. Neither game was close, and I was there for both of them. Goalie John Muse is a senior now and has never lost an NCAA tournament game. That's right: He's a perfect 8-0 (BC failed to make the tournament in '09). This year he's put up a .926 SV% and 2.13 GAA, better than both his freshman and junior years.

BC hockey thrives on magic midgets: Brian Gionta, Nathan Gerbe, etc. Six different Eagles this year are listed at 5'8" or shorter, including scoring leaders Cam Atkinson (30-21--51) and Brian Gibbons (18-32--50). I remember 5'6" Joe Whitney (5-26--31) as a problem for which Wisconsin couldn't find an answer. 6'3" Brian Domoulin is the exception – a big defenseman who's an assist machine (3-30--33). In all, nine Eagles have 20 or more points, and six have 10 or more goals.

Boston College has been rampaging through Hockey East this year. They've lost a total of two games since November 26: A 1-4 decision at Maine and a 1-2 loss at Northeastern. They won the Beanpot again this year, a 7-6 overtime game also against Northeastern. Weirdly, they followed it up on Friday night with a 7-7 tie against the Huskies, then the aforementioned 1-2 loss. Since then, they've won 8 straight games, their longest winning streak of the year (They've won 7 in a row two different times). There aren't a lot of teams out there that have played as well as BC at any time this year, let alone heading into the tournament. But it's one-and-done, so all it takes is one bad game to send you home. Still, it's BC vs. the field at this regional.

West #2: Michigan

University of Michigan Wolverines

2 seed vs. Nebraska-Omaha, West Regional (Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
Friday, March 25, 2011
CCHA Regular Season Champions
At-large bid from the CCHA

Record: 26-10-4
Coach: Red Berenson

Most people around here know the story of the 2009-2010 Michigan hockey team. They were inexplicably bad, getting swept by MSU and Nebraska-Omaha, and just not looking very good. Then, in a late season game, goaltender Bryan Hogan went down with a groin injury. His backup, Shawn Hunwick, was a lightly recruited undersized kid ticketed for Division III Adrian when Hogan's former backup, Steve Jakiel, left the team. Hunwick, brother of NHLer Matt, walked on and hung around getting minimal playing time. He went in against the Irish, finished off Hogan's shutout, then let in 5 goals the next night. He wouldn't let in more than 3 the rest of the year. Hunwick led the 7th place Wolverines on a Cinderella run through the CCHA tournament to beat Miami in the championship and keep the NCAA tournament streak alive. Michigan beat Bemidji State in the opening round, but a quick whistle cost the Wolverines a trip to the Frozen Four.

Fast forward to 2010-2011. Hogan has recovered from his injury and is now splitting time with Hunwick -- Hunwick usually gets Fridays, Hogan on Saturdays. For some reason, Michigan on Saturdays is playing a lot better than Michigan on Fridays, and it's looking like Hogan is going to be the guy again. Everything is set, leading up to the biggest hockey game ever played, the Big Chill at the Big House. Hogan is named the starter...but then he injures his groin in warmups. Hunwick is called in. He stops everything Michigan State can throw at him and walks out with a 5-0 shutout in front of a Guinness-certified 104,073 paying customers.

Since that time, Michigan has been playing solid, if not great, hockey. Their only sweep of the season came at the hands of Miami down in Oxford, and they've swept 8 series of their own. They beat Colorado College to win the GLI again over the holidays in a wild 6-5 game, and they're 2-1 against Notre Dame this year, including their 4-2 win in the CCHA tournament third-place game after falling to Western in the semifinals. It feels like there haven't been a lot of highs this season, but not a lot of lows either. They don't have many bad losses, but they don't have a lot of good wins either. If you told me they would lose to UNO in the first round, I wouldn't be surprised. If you told me they made the Frozen Four...OK, maybe a little surprised, because BC is a terrifying team this time of year.

The 2010-2011 Wolverines don't have any 20+ goal scorers. In fact, they have only one with more than 15, senior Carl Hagelin (18-30--48), but they have 13 skaters with at least five, and the only Wolverines without goals are the goalies and lightly-used freshman defenseman Kevin Clare. Hagelin is also the leader in points and assists, with fellow senior Matt Rust (5-20--25) having some trouble scoring goals, but not having problems getting assists. Converted defenseman Scooter Vaughan has come out of nowhere to go from 2 career goals to 12 goals this season as a senior.

Other guys to watch: Sophomore wing Chris Brown doles out a lot of punishment and can be found crashing the net. Freshman defenseman Jon Merrill has immediately become an excellent two-way player. And watch Hagelin some more, just because his skating is unreal.

Bryan Hogan has returned from injury, but has only played a few minutes in net since then, so his .924 SV% and 2.08 GAA should be taken with a grain of salt. Hunwick was named CCHA goaltender of the year, posting a .921 SV% / 2.31 GAA and is the presumptive starter, barring injury.

Speaking of injuries, the Wolverines are dealing with some significant ones. Senior Louie "The Love Expert" Caporusso came back from a knee injury in time for the CCHA playoffs, but David Wohlberg, the team's second leading scorer after Hagelin, broke his collarbone against Bowling Green and is out for the season. Meanwhile, junior defenseman Brandon Burlon came down with a bad case of strep throat, then suffered a severe allergic reaction to antibiotics he was taking. This landed him in the hospital before the CCHA tournament and is still an ongoing problem, He's down with an "inflamed esophagus" and has reportedly lost 15 pounds and is definitely out for today's game, and I'd be shocked if we saw him on Saturday should the Wolverines win today.

West #3: Nebraska-Omaha

University of Nebraska at Omaha Mavericks

#3 seed vs. Michigan
West Regional (Scotttrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
Friday, March 25, 2011


At-Large Berth from the WCHA

Record: 21-15-2
Head Coach: David Letterman Dean Blais

We're going to be as serious as possible on this one, because, as Michigan's regional semi-final opponent, we suspect that maybe, just maybe, you'd like to know what the Maize and Blue are up against on Friday.  We understand this.  Let's start with coach Dean Blais, who was brought in by UNO Athletic Director Trev Alberts (yes, that Trev Alberts) to ramp up the Maverick hockey program to new heights.  In just his second year behind the bench in Omaha (and the school's first in the WCHA), Blais has garnered UNO's second trip to the NCAA tournament, and as one of my friends put it to my bluntly, "I am loathe to bet against Blais in a tournament setting."  He has a point.  Blais resume includes 5 30+ win seasons at North Dakota and two national championships for the Fighting [NICKNAME] and he lead the USA Hockey World Junior team to the gold medal in Saskatoon in 2009-2010.  He is a coach who gets the most out of his talent and whose team will play hard every shift.  Michigan split their (non-conference) season series with the Mavs, losing on Friday night 4-2 before blitzing them 6-1 on Saturday night (because, remember, Michigan loves Saturday nights.  Hopefully Michigan remembers it can't play on Saturday if it doesn't get it done on Friday.)  Omaha is also a team that is much better somewhere in middle America, going 13-6-1 at home, but just 8-9-1 on the road this year.

One of the Lights in August for the Mavericks is sophomore goaltender John Faulkner.  Third team all-WCHA this season, Faulkner seems to be your classic mercurial goalie, sometimes being the unvanquished (posting six shutouts), while other times, being full of sound and fury, signifying nothing (he's allowed three or more goals in seven of his last eleven games.) (Stick tap to INCH for that tidbit.)  Faulkner, a native of Yoknapatawpha County Sarnia, will need to be something better than a Pylon if the Mavericks hope to make it to St. Paul.

If Nebraska-Omaha is going to make it to the Regional Finals, it's going to need to find the balanced scoring attack that was its hallmark throughout the season.  No Maverick has more than 17 goals, but eight players have double digit goals.  UNO has not scored more than two goals in any of its last five games, so it will either need to play lock down defense and hope that Faulkner is more than an Intruder in the Dust.  There is no doubt that this team is a tough out, and it can make some noise if it rediscovers its early season form.

West #4: Colorado College

Colorado College Tigers

#4 seed vs. Boston College
West Regional (Scotttrade Center, St. Louis, MO)
Friday, March 25, 2011


At-Large Berth from the WCHA

Record: 22-18-3
Head Coach: Scott Owens

How do we say this politely?  Colorado College probably doesn't make the field in most years, but thanks to a weak bubble, a team just four games over break even gets in to the field as the the 14th overall seed.  Going 5-4-1 down the stretch (including five straight games against Wisconsin due to a scheduling quirk where they played them on the last weekend of the regular season, then in a best two of three in the WCHA first round), CC doesn't limp into tournament, but they're also not charging in hard.  They're a special teams nightmare, in that being top 10 in the nation in the Power Play (40% of the teams goals come on the man advantage) is balanced by the fact that they have given up a nation's worst 11 shorthanded goals.  (Like Michigan Tech, the Tigers are clearly NOT doing it for the shorties.)

So, how does CC get by the defending national champions?  Well, for starters, they'll need the Schwartz(es) to be with them, as brother combination of freshman Rylan and sophomore Jaden power a scoring line with the Tigers' leading scorer Stephen Schwartz.  They'll need to play well on even strength.  They'll need some puck luck.  So yes, basically, they'll need all of the things you normally need as a #4 seed if you want to upset the top seed.  Will the Tigers be burning bright on Friday?  We'll see.


(On a non-hockey note, this seems as good a place as any to send our best wishes to NFL Films President (and Colorado College alumnus) Steve Sabol, who has begun treatment this week for a brain tumor.)