I Hope, I Think, I Know

Well, things are definitely happening. (Michigan Athletics)

They're trying hard to put me in my place

And that is why I gotta keep running

The future is mine and it's no disgrace

'Cause in the end the past means nothing

You tell me I'm free, then you tie me down

And from my chains I think it's a pity

What did it cost you to wear my crown?

You don't like me, why don't you admit it?

"I Hope, I Think, I Know" by Oasis from their 1997 album Be Here Now. 

I hope, I think, I know is a very useful framework for discussing things because it allows a person to classify the knowledge they possess.  It's even more useful in a sporting context, because a lot of things that sports fans "think" are actually things they hope.

So, I hope the Michigan coaching staff takes a hard look at the starting offensive personnel for this week's game and makes some hard decisions about what the future looks like.  I think they need to do that, because Davis Warren is not valuing the football, Donovan Edwards seems like he has difficulty running between the tackles, and the offensive line still looks like it needs time to find the best five out there.  I don't know anything though, this is just the observations of a fan.

Michigan was up 28-3 with nine minutes to go thanks to three rushing TDs and a solid short pass from Orji to Hogan Hansen for a fourth TD and they pulled the defensive starters.  So when the second-string allowed a nine play, 64 yard TD drive that featured any number of missed tackles, well, it's annoying.  OK fine, a three and out to just try and end the game, again, annoying, but what are you going to do in that situation. BUT the roughing the passer on a fourth and 3 that fell incomplete was one of the signs of the biggest symptoms of problems on the Michigan team.  So of course Michigan gives up a late touchdown and two point conversion to make everybody but Arkansas State feel worse about themselves.

I hope things will get better, and I think they will because the talent is there.  But I know that this season is definitely not shaping up the way most of us thought it was going to back during the summer. 

Tales from the Spreadsheet
Win 1,006
28-18 is NOT a Scorigami (2nd time, most recently 11/25/1989 in the season finale against Ohio State.)
110,250 were in attendance (the 110th-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history, 16th largest Homecoming crowd).

Michigan moves to 1-0-0 all-time against Arkansas State University.
Michigan moves to 6-1 all-time on September 14. (Lot of Notre Dame matchups on this day.)

Michigan moves to 43-6 when scoring exactly 28 points.
Michigan moves to 8-3 all-time when allowing 18 points to the opposition.
Michigan has won 36 games all-time by precisely 10 points, most recently, the 2016 Indiana game in the snow.

Some Might Say

Real talk: I kind of forgot Charleston was on the roster until he caught this pass (Michigan Athletics) 

Some might say that sunshine follows thunder

Go and tell it to the man who cannot shine

Some might say that we should never ponder

On our thoughts today 'cause they hold sway over time

Some might say we will find a brighter day

--"Some Might Say" by Oasis, the lead single off their 1995 album (What's the Story) Morning Glory

I am not saying I was some kind of prophet when I say this, but my mind had been coming back all week to Michigan's 1998 game against Syracuse.  I remember that game very well, like even when I looked at the box score, it was exactly what I remembered.  It was a warm and windy September day.  Donovan McNabb sliced and diced Michigan through the air and on the ground, Syracuse was up 24-7 at half, and 38-7 at the end of three, and Michigan put up 21 in the fourth, it was never as close as the final score indicated.  It was as bad as I remember feeling at Michigan Stadium about watching a Michigan team until probably 2007 Oregon (App State was shock and disbelief, it's a different bad feeling.)  There are days where it is just not your day and you have to accept that.  I wondered if this Texas team, that looked really good on paper, would put it all together on the big stage.

They did, and then some.

It is not a surprise that a team where Quinn Ewers is playing well enough to keep Arch Manning on the bench without even a rumbling would be able to execute on offense, even down their top two running backs.  Sark schemed up some beautifully simple plays to get his guys into space, the Texas offensive line blocked very well, and Michigan decided that missing tackles would be a solid thing to keep doing and Michigan was down 24-3 at the half and it could have been much worse.

That Michigan did not look organized or competent on offense until when they game had already been decided was deeply frustrating and speaks more to future concerns than anything else.  Receivers looked to be struggling with their positioning with an alarming frequency, Davis Warren often looking like he was only comfortable throwing passes when he was running for his life, very little out of a running game that allegedly on paper was one of the strongest position groups.  All of it was confounding and none of it looked like it has easy answers.  

And yet, there's a level of...it's not contentment and it's not indifference.  It feels like having returned to the mountaintop, having proven it's possible, a number of Michigan fans looked at all of the changes that happened between last year and this year, accounted for it appropriately in their emotional tenor, and while aren't happy that things felt so off and so non-competitive for most of the day, it's that they understood the circumstances.  They're upset, but it's tempered by the context of last season, of the last three seasons.  So many things went right, it almost feels like there's a cosmic paying of the piper occurring (which some might argue that the years preceding this run had already built up the karmic credit, but that's an epistemological discussion for another day.)

I do believe that brighter days are ahead, but clearly they're going to come with a lot of work to do to get there.  Let's hope there's a plan in place to get there.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

31-12 is a Scorigami

111,170 were in attendance (the 60th-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history, largest post-pandemic crowd).

Michigan moves to 0-2-0 all-time against the University of Texas.

Michigan moves to 4-1 all-time on September 7.

Michigan moves to 16-9-2 when scoring exactly 12 points (many of these 12 point games were pre-WWI.)

Michigan moves to 8-12-0 all-time when allowing 31 points to the opposition.

Michigan has lost 7 games all-time by precisely 19 points, most recently, the cursed 2020 Citrus Bowl vs. Alabama.

The Masterplan

Jump the route, secure the win. (Michigan Athletics)

Take the time to make some sense

Of what you want to say

And cast your words away upon the waves

Sail them home with acquiesce

On a ship of hope today

And as they land upon the shore

Tell them not to fear no more

Say it loud and sing it proud today

--"The Masterplan" by Oasis on their 1995 single "Wonderwall"

(For the record, I had decided in March that Oasis would be this year's theme.  The reunion tour announcement this week was mere affirmation of that choice.)

It was lingering in the back of my head that the last time Michigan won the national title, it lost not just its first game, but its first two games, of the ensuing season.  I was in the Big House crowd when Donovan McNabb sliced, diced, and julienned a Michigan team that was down several key players from the team that had won the title.  While the indicators said that Fresno State might provide a test for this Michigan team with a new coach, a largely new offense, and newly freed from the weight of decades of expectations, Michigan should be able to handle its business and get ready for a Week 2 showdown with a big time opponent with a returning quarterback that might be able to McNabb the maize and blue.

For a moment at the beginning of the game, it looked like those fears would be unfounded.  Michigan's defense, the thing that no one was worried about, reminded the entire crowd of 110,665 that they were right and proper to feel that way.  Zeke Berry picked off Fresno State's third play of the game, setting up the Michigan offense with a short field, and after Davis Warren started, it was Alex Orji finding Donovan Edwards on a play very similar to the JJ to Roman game-tying TD in the Rose Bowl to go up 7-0 just four minutes into the season.  The rout was surely on.

Except, it wasn't.  

A brief interlude on vibes.  Michigan fans are creatures of vibes.  As rational and clear headed as they may want people to think they are when they present themselves to the world, this is a deeply vibes based fan culture.  I suspect most fandoms are.  It's why so many fans have rituals and superstitions, because they know they aren't the reason things happen, but they certainly do not want to be the reason things fell apart.  Yes, it is supremely silly, but at its core, so is fandom.  This is not a new observation, it is one of the core observations of fandom.  So when I say that the vibes were off yesterday, it explained a lot to me.  I couldn't get Strawberry Lemonade Fast Twitch Gatorade like I did before every game last year, so I had to settle for Strawberry Watermelon.  My favorite BBQ place was back at the Big House, but they swapped out my pre-game meal for a new creation, which, while good, just felt slightly off.  The M Den is still there, but because of the business situation, it felt slightly off.  Michigan Stadium PA announcer Carl Grapentine was at his daughter's wedding, so he wasn't there to greet the new year, and while his substitute Jason Morris did an admirable job, hearing him say the same things we've heard Carl say to us hundreds of times just felt slightly off.

So when the first half turned into a trade of punts, a Davis Warren throw getting picked off deep, and a trade of field goals to send the teams into the locker room at 10-3 Michigan, it was this realization that while the defense looked stout and largely unbending, the offense looked like it could not get out of its own way.  The grumbles for Alex Orji filtered through the crowd as the Michigan Marching Band played a show of "Celebrations" and hopes that Michigan's traditional halftime adjustments would get things back on the right track.

While a field goal to extend the lead to 10 was a nice way to open the half, it was largely because transfer kicker Dominic Zvada boomed a 53-yarder.  More punts, another booming Zvada field goal, this one squeaking in from 55 yards out, and Michigan had a 16-3 lead with just 12 minutes left in the game, and hopefully a sleepy fourth quarter to get everyone on to the next one.

Fresno State decided that the only shot they had to move the ball was to run the 2020 Rocky Lombardi chuck it deep and hope it gets caught playbook.  AND IT WORKED.  In just 2:36, the Bulldogs had their first touchdown of the game, the score was 16-10 and suddenly the close game alerts started dropping in on the phones that could get service at Michigan Stadium.

Michigan needed to answer the bell with a vintage grinder drive, slow, methodical, chewing up clock and moving the ball consistently that ended in a touchdown.  Thanks in large part to Kalel Mullings, that is exactly what happened, capped by Davis Warren's first career TD pass, fittingly an 18 yard toss to #18 himself, Colston Loveland.  Michigan was up 23-10, but the nerves were still on high alert in the stadium.

The next drive is one of the most fascinating and annoying sequences I have ever witnessed.  The Bulldogs' first pass is intercepted, the crowd goes wild...and it's overturned by the replay officials because it hit the turf first.  OK, so definitely no home cooking from the Big Ten's new replay command center.  OK, so the Bulldogs' second pass is intercepted by Makari Paige and returned to the Fresno 12.  OK, excellent...wait, there's a flag...excessive celebration.  No, T.J. Guy was called for roughing the passer, which on replay was a clear flop by Fresno State's QB Mikey Keene, so now Fresno has the ball at their 40, but wait, there was an excessive celebration penalty, so now the Bulldogs have the ball at the Michigan 45.  A false start by Fresno, which I swear was in part the officials attempting to calm the Michigan crowd down, puts the ball back at the 50, then a Bulldogs pass for 11 yards, PLUS a TJ Guy facemask and a couple of plays later, Fresno has the ball at the Michigan 10 and the defense looks completely out of sorts.  Enter Will Johnson, so read the play, jumped the screen pass perfectly and dashed 86 yards to the end zone for the game sealing score, finally having a turnover buffs celebration on the sideline for one that counted and the entire stadium collectively exhaled.

When Michigan has been so good for so long, blessed by top caliber players and a culture that demands excellence, it's hard to remember sometimes that new players are going to take a minute to find themselves.  Michigan won, they start the season with a win, the showdown with Texas next week is unsullied.  Perhaps Michigan was looking ahead, spending too much time prepping for this challenge and not enough time on what they presumed to be a relatively straightforward affair.  The Masterplan is there, and it will reveal itself in time.  But never, ever, diminish a win just because it didn't happen the way you expected it to happen.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

Win 1,005

30-10 is NOT a Scorigami (2nd time, most recently 9/4/2010 in the season opener against Connecticut.)

110,665 were in attendance (the 88th-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history).

Michigan moves to 1-0-0 all-time against Fresno State University.

Michigan moves to 5-0 all-time on August 31. (The birthday win streak lives.)

Michigan moves to 10-1 when scoring exactly 30 points (the lone loss to Miami (FL) in 1988.)

Michigan moves to 56-10-1 all-time when allowing 10 points to the opposition.

Michigan has won 26 games all-time by precisely 20 points, most recently, the aforementioned UConn game.