Nautical Disaster

"Michigan wins on a walk-off home run." --Patrick Barron (Photo: Patrick Barron)

I had this dream where I relished the fray and the screaming filled my head all day

It was as though I had been spit here, settled in

Into the pocket of a lighthouse on some rocky socket

Off the coast of France, dear

One afternoon, four thousand men died in the water here and five hundred more were thrashing madly as parasites might in your blood

Now I was in a lifeboat designed for ten and ten only

Anything that systematic would get you hated

--"Nautical Disaster" by the Tragically Hip, the third single from the band's 1994 album, Day for Night.

Walk-off wins should be exhilarating, at least on some level.  Your team is losing, and they have put together something that will allow them, with no time remaining on the clock, to win the game.  In baseball, it can be a lightning strike, because a walk-off home run takes just the proper connection on one pitch.  Maybe you needed to get a runner on base to set it up, but a walk-off in baseball can take many forms.  Football has simultaneously fewer and more types of walk-off victories.  Touchdown Manningham is a walk-off win.  So is the Miracle at Michigan.  Field goals in the bottom half of the overtime session are walk-offs.  Phil Brabbs' 44-yard field goal toward the north goal posts at Michigan Stadium against Washington was a walk-off (as far as I can tell, the last regulation field goal walk-off in Michigan history.  Brabbs also missed his first two attempts that game.)

It's not a deal not a test nor a love of something fated

(Death)

The selection was quick

The crew was picked, in order

And those left in the water were kicked off our pant leg

And we headed for home

It is easy to say that Michigan games against Northwestern in November are always weird, but there is at least a little truth to the statement when it comes to games in Evanston/Chicago.  Since 2000, we've had the 54-51 loss in 2000. 2003 wasn't weird per se; 41-10 games tend not to be. However, then you get 2013, which is the fire drill field goal with the Dileo power slide that forced overtime to win.  Then it's 2014, which, of course, is M00N.  So yeah, it's not a huge sample size, but it's also not encouraging.  Michigan did a bunch of little things wrong early (a hold on a beautiful outside run for Jordan Marshall for an early touchdown that would have absolutely set the tone, which led to Zvada's first miss of the day) but then, you know, 91 yard drive that ends in a touchdown, OK, that should be a good tone setter, especially because Bryce is throwing the ball well.  But the end of the first half for Michigan was punt, fumble (Chip Lindsay getting too cute by half with the orbit motion to Marsh), and a missed 60-yard field goal at the end of the half, while the Wildcats got a pair of field goals, creating an extremely annoying 7-6 score going into the locker room.

One could hope that after Michigan got the early touchdown in the third quarter after forcing Northwestern into a four-and-out, things would settle down.  They did not.  Michigan forced a three-and-out, and it looked like it would get the ball back with good field position. Semaj finally tried to make a return, and he fumbled (though I'm sorry, I still don't understand how that one counted as a Northwestern recovery.) Northwestern got a field goal out of it.  Michigan goes 80 yards, Jordan Marshall puts the ball over the goal line just long enough to get the score, Michigan goes up 21-9, and you would be forgiven if you thought that Michigan fans could relax.

It was at this point, after the third quarter stretch, that the game went into full bête noire territory for Michigan.  Northwestern goes 75 yards thanks to three long passes to get a TD and get it to 21-16.  OK, time for Michigan to respond.  Then Bryce has a freshman moment, throws a locked-on target pick, and five seconds later, Northwestern scores another TD; now they lead 22-21 after a failed two-point conversion attempt.  Fine, Michigan will just go down and respond.  Nope, Marshall gets hurt, and then Bryce throws another pick.  Ugh. Okay, the defense comes to the rescue, forcing a very tidy three-and-out.  Michigan gets the ball at their own 41, starts driving the ball, gets a great catch from Andrew Marsh, who was a revelation today, but on a fourth and one at the Northwestern 24, a fumble on the exchange, and Northwestern gets the ball back.  Defense bails them out again with a three-and-out, letting Michigan preserve all three of its time-outs.  Michigan gets the ball at their own 37, throws two straight incompletions, then needs a miracle of a grab from Marsh on the sideline, upheld on review (it shouldn't have even been a question), then keeps running Bryzon Kuzdzal seven times for 29 yards to set up Zvada for a game-winner with two seconds left.  

Then the dream ends when the phone rings

You're doing alright he said

It's out there most days and nights

But only a fool would complain

Anyway Susan, if you like, our conversation is as faint as a sound in my memory

As those fingernails scratching on my hull

Zvada shook off the nightmare of the season he's been having and put it through the uprights, and Michigan escaped with a 24-22 win, matching last season's win total with two games left to play in the regular season.  Questions about the injuries will loom, but off to College Park, we'll see what happens. 

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-22 IS a Scorigami!  It would not have been if Northwestern had kicked the extra point.
  
• 38,223 were in attendance for the game (the smallest crowd of the season and the smallest crowd Michigan has played in front of since the 2021 Maryland game).
• Win 1,020.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 61-15-2 all-time against Northwestern University.  This is Michigan's ninth straight win in the series against the Wildcats, which has included a pair of overtime games and M00N, and now this.
• Michigan improves to 14-5-0 all-time on November 15 (this was Michigan's first game on November 15 since 2008, which was the most recent loss to Northwestern, a miserable 21-14 loss which was dubbed Fandom Endurance IV due to the dreadful game and weather conditions).
  
  
• Michigan improves to 41-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 6-7-1 (groans at Gen Alphas) all-time when allowing 22 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 21 games all-time by precisely 2 points, the most recent example being the 2022 Illinois game, bka the Money Moody pseudo-walk off win.
• Bonus Stat: Michigan moves to 16-14 all-time in games in the city of Chicago.  This was its first in Chicago proper since 1939, when they defeated the University of Chicago 85-0 in the game that basically made Chicago give up football as a going concern.