At the moment, Saturday's loss to OSU looks to be harmless. Michigan is still tied for #2 in the Pairwise. Sure, Notre Dame replaced Vermont as the team we're tied with, and since they have the tiebreakers on us, that means we're on the outside looking in at the Grand Rapids regional. But they flipped their comparison with the Catamounts and there was nothing we could do about that. The real damage is in the Michigan vs. Miami Pairwise comparison, which is now like a Sword of Damocles hanging over the Wolverines.
This is what the Michigan/Miami comparison looks like today:
|Michigan vs. Miami|
|8||5||0||0.6154||0||Win % vs. TUC||0||0.6250||4||2||2|
|17||6||0||0.7391||0||Win % vs. COp||1||0.7750||14||3||3|
Look at the "Win % vs. TUC" category again. Miami has a better record, but since they haven't reached the 10-win threshold (when the head-to-head series is taken out) it isn't counted. This weekend, they play OSU. A team under consideration. If they sweep, they win the category and the comparison, even if we sweep Ferris State. This is how the table will look then:
|Michigan vs. Miami|
|8||5||0||0.6154||0||Win % vs. TUC||1||0.7000||6||2||2|
|19||6||0||0.7600||0||Win % vs. COp||1||0.7955||16||3||3|
This would've been different had the Wolverines swept Ohio State. They still would've had a chance to control their own destiny. Assuming a Michigan sweep over Ferris and a Miami sweep over OSU, Michigan still would lose the TUC comparison (by .0077), but would've held onto the Common Opponents category by the barest of margins: 0.8000 to 0.7955. It would've been almost insignificant, but just enough, giving Michigan the 4-3 overall edge.
What has to happen now for Michigan to maintain the edge over Miami is 1.) Sweep Ferris and 2.) Ohio State has to take one game over Miami in regulation/standard OT. If that comes to pass, Michigan takes a very strong 5-2 lead over Miami in the eyes of the Pairwise.
All of this can still be rendered academic by the CCHA conference tournament. Even if Miami sweeps OSU and hangs onto the TUC and COp categories, they'll be hard-pressed to catch us in RPI. If Michigan holds an RPI advantage and defeats Miami in the semi-finals, that's another win added to the head-to-head comparison, which would put Michigan back into a tie, which would be broken by RPI in Michigan's favor.
In conclusion: This sucks, but the suckage can be rendered moot by winning. Go Blue.