Grace, Too

"Armed with skill and its frustration, and grace, too" (Michigan Photography)

But I can guarantee

There'll be no knock on the door

I'm total pro

That's what I'm here for

--"Grace, Too" by The Tragically Hip from their 1994 album Day for Night 

(Before we get started, allow me to send you over to YouTube where you can check out yesterday's fantastic MMB halftime performance of songs from Wicked.)

One of the most challenging things about a college football season is the lack of gameplay datapoints.  A couple of weeks into a baseball season, you wouldn't have a lot of data, but you would feel like you might have something to work with.  But just two weeks into a college football season, it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions.  However, coaching staffs have to do so because the season is so short; you cannot afford not to. You have to make adjustments, even when things are going well.

It was heartening that New Mexico went into the Rose Bowl and soundly beat a UCLA team on Friday night.  That UCLA team might be utterly dreadful, and DeShaun Foster has already been fired by Sunday morning, but seeing that New Mexico might be a better-than-average Mountain West team made me feel a little better about Michigan in Week 1.  But the concerns were still there for Week 3: how would Michigan respond to what everyone agreed was a lackluster performance in Norman, and how would Michigan play without Sherrone at the helm because of the school's self-imposed two-game suspension?  Answers would be forthcoming.

The secret rules of engagement
Are hard to endorse
When the appearance of conflict
Meets the appearance of force

The Michigan offense looked fully operational in all facets of the game yesterday.  A 10-play, 75-yard drive that ended with a Justice Haynes touchdown, a 6-play drive that ended with a textbook perfect Underwood to Morgan 32-yard touchdown pass.  A missed field goal by Zvada was somewhat troubling, but Michigan stormed right back after Central Michigan's punt with a 77-yard drive that included three "explosives," the last of which was Bryce Underwood running the ball in, to the loud approbation of the Big House crowd.  Central deserves credit for going for it on 4th and 1 on their own 34, but Michigan got the stop and immediately cashed it in two plays later on an Andrew Marsh end-around run.  Even a Bryce Underwood pick didn't dampen the mood, as in some quarters, it was like "OK, but he was throwing a deep ball, it's good to know they have that in the playbook," and it only ended in a Central Michigan field goal.  Michigan then executed a fantastic two-minute drill that covered 79 yards in less than 120 seconds and ended with a Jordan Marshall touchdown, making up for the one he had called back earlier on a penalty.  

The second half was largely academic, two touchdowns in the third on longish drives, a Michigan interception leading to a TD drive, a CMU fumble leading to a Michigan TD drive, and that was pretty much all there was.  This was an "It's hard to find things to be critical of" type of game that you want to see out of Michigan against a MAC opponent.

What it boiled down to was that Michigan fans wanted to see Bryce without training wheels ahead of next week's Big Ten opener in Lincoln.  They got it, and then some.  There were Bryce laser throws, there were Bryce rollouts and passes on a rail, there were designed runs for Mr. Underwood, and there were Bryce escapes that turned plays that were dead to rights into something, and occasionally, something more.  The defense looked much more together than it had at any point in the season, MAC caveats applied, and the team did not seem to be at a loss without Moore running the show. No one rational overreacted to last week as much as there were just general calls for doing more and doing better, and it worked, for at least one game.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 63-3 is NOT a Scorigami (63-3 was the score of 2016 Hawai'i, which means those two wins are the largest margins of victory at Michigan Stadium in the last 50 years.)
  
• 110,740 were in attendance for the game, the 88th largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.
• Win 1,014
  
  
• Michigan moves to 5-0-0 all-time against Central Michigan University.
  
• Michigan moves to 7-1-0 all-time on September 13 (The lone loss was to Notre Dame in South Bend in 2008.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 12-0-0 when scoring exactly 63 points.
• Michigan moves to 49-3-3 all-time when allowing 3 points to the opposition.
• Michigan won 3 games all-time by precisely 60 points, the aforementioned 63-3 games and 60-0 over Indiana in 1902.

At The Hundredth Meridian

For one brief moment at the start of the second half, there was a glimmer of hope. (Michigan Athletics)

Me debunk an American myth?

And take my life in my hands?

Where the great plains begin

At the hundredth meridian

At the hundredth meridian

Where the great plains begin

--"At the Hundredth Meridian" by The Tragically Hip from their 1992 album Fully Completely

On the surface, there are many reasons to fret about a 24-13 loss to a top-20 team on the road in week two.  Michigan wasn't aggressive enough; Michigan didn't let Bryce Underwood use his athletic gifts to their fullest; Michigan's offensive line is suspect, especially for one on a team whose HC is an OL guy.  There is validity in all of these things.  But it is a matter of degrees, and primarily whether this loss is somehow a referendum on where Michigan is or where Michigan will be.

I told myself that every possible outcome for this game, save Michigan blowing out the Sooners, was in play.  But I do find myself surprised that Michigan won the turnover battle and was kept in the game by a couple of critical Oklahoma miscues, but still never really threatened in this matchup.  A Brett Venables defense looked like that of Venables' past, confusing, confounding, especially with an 18-year-old starting in his first road game.  While there were a few nice moments, like Justice Haynes long TD run to start the second half, it was mostly an exercise in frustration.

If I die of vanity, promise me, promise me

They bury me some place I don't want to be

You'll dig me up and transport me, unceremoniously

Away from the swollen city-breeze, garbage bag trees

Whispers of disease and the acts of enormity

And lower me slowly, sadly, and properly

Get Ry Cooder to sing my eulogy

My only other takeaway from this game is that John Mateer played the kind of game for a college quarterback that you absolutely love to watch as a neutral and that you loathe deeply when he's playing the team you're rooting for.  To wit, at some point in the second half:

So, end of story, Michigan takes its first loss of the season, comes home to face the Chippewas, and hopes they can get a bunch of starters healthy ahead of the trip to Nebraska.  Will Sherrone take his two weeks of university-imposed exile to examine what needs to be better?  We can only hope.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-13 IS a Scorigami (we initially thought that 2011 Iowa was also 24-13, but it turns out that the score had been recorded incorrectly in the database at the Bentley.  We have alerted them.)
  
• 84,107 were in attendance for Michigan's first-ever regular-season game against the Sooners and its first-ever game in the state of Oklahoma.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 0-2-0 all-time against the University of Oklahoma.
  
• Michigan moves to 2-2-0 all-time on September 6 (The other loss was to 2014 Notre Dame on the road that ended the long "no shutouts against" streak.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 19-16-1 when scoring exactly 13 points (as Hockeybear pointed out, the last time Michigan scored 13 points, we were all ecstatic).
• Michigan moves to 19-19-0 all-time when allowing 24 points to the opposition (including 2023's victory over Ohio State).
• Michigan has lost 10 games all-time by precisely 13 points, the four most recent examples were all to Ohio State, 1970, 2007, 2009, 2017.

Fully Completely

"And Justice for all."  (Michigan Athletics)

Bring me back in shackles

Hang me long out in the sun

Exonerate me

Forget about me

--"Fully Completely" by The Tragically Hip, the title track of their 1993 album.

It was clear from reading all of the previews of Michigan football this summer that no one was quite sure what the 2025 Michigan team would be.  They knew there would be an upgrade at quarterback, a potential step back on defense because of the losses of Johnson, Graham, and Grant, but maybe not, and some unknowns with a new OC, etc.  It was a mystery box of mixed expectations, essentially agreeing that Michigan was a top-20ish team that, if things broke right, could slip into the College Football Playoff.

So when toe met leather for a prime time matchup with a Mountain West team, the biggest question immediately answered was "How was Bryce Underwood going to look?"  Just the fourth true freshman to start at quarterback in Michigan history, the jokes about things like that he wasn't even legally permitted to buy lottery tickets and fireworks until two weeks ago were plentiful.  But they were masking the hope that he would live up to, and perhaps exceed, the hype.

A strong running game, featuring Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, was a great place to start.  After a couple of quick screen passes and an incompletion that was primarily because it came in too hot for Channing Goodwin, Haynes broke one for 56 yards and a touchdown, and things felt right and good.  Michigan's defense forced a three-and-out, followed by a much more pedestrian, workmanlike, but clock-eating touchdown drive, putting Michigan up 14-0 before the first quarter was over.  Some exchanges of punts between the teams occurred before a TJ Guy interception that led to a field goal and a 17-0 lead, and they were cruising.

And then what can only be described as "the bullshit" settled in.

New Mexico would empty out the playbook, using a classic college script, while Michigan played some backups on defense for reps and ran an audacious (and honestly, pretty cool) trick play to score a touchdown.  OK, that happens.  Sure.

Then Andrew Marsh reminded the crowd that, as talented as freshmen can be, they're also still freshmen, fumbling a kick return while he attempted to hurdle a Lobo, and New Mexico looked like they could go into the half only down three.  However, Michigan's defense was stout, allowing New Mexico just two yards before forcing a field goal to cut Michigan's lead to 17-10.

You could be forgiven if, given Michigan's recent struggles with things like tempo and urgency, on late in the half drives, you didn't think the two-minute drill would amount to much, especially with Bryce helming it in his debut effort.  You would especially be forgiven when the first two plays of the drive resulted in a pair of two-yard losses.  But after a New Mexico timeout, Michigan dialed up an absolute beauty of a play, a 39-yard catch and run from Channing Goodwin to the New Mexico 40 and a complete reset of the expectations for the drive.  Sure enough, six plays later, Underwood would find his favorite target, Marlin Klein, for a 15-yard TD pass, and Michigan was back up by 14 headed into halftime.

I ponder the endlessness of the stars
Ignoring said same of my father
Either it'll move me
Or it'll move right through me
Fully and completely 

Coming out of halftime, and after forcing a four-and-out from the Lobos, Michigan's drive stalled and resulted in a field goal, pushing the lead back to 17.  And then the serious business of bullshittery happened.

No one knows what targeting is, but I am reasonably sure that what was called on Jaishawn Barham's exceptional blind side sack of New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne was not it.  I am willing to concede that it was not a fumble, negating the scoop and score, but it was not targeting, except that somehow, without a flag on the field, it was.  Barham was ejected and excluded from the first half in Norman (hopefully not), and the Lobos proceeded on one of the most "fueled by referee decision making" drives you will ever see (the pass interference on the goal to go was fine, everything else, no.)

OK, so Michigan, just get the ball back and score, and...nope, three-and-out, and even with a ten-point lead headed into the fourth, all of this feels tenuous.  Thankfully, Brandyn Hillman, he of the excellent quote about flipping the switch because New Mexico had the same colors as [expletive] Ohio State, remember the Jourdan Lewis rule, yes, you probably should have knocked it down.  Still, interceptions are so much more mentally taxing.  Justice Haynes paid off the field position situation with another long run that was inches away from being a 60-yard TD run, but instead was a 59-yard run, followed by a 1-yard TD run for his third score of the night, Michigan back up by 17.  Cole Sullivan gets Michigan's third pick of the night, and even as the Lobos tried to cobble together a late TD drive, including calling a timeout with three seconds left to try and tack on a meaningless late score, only to see Layne get sacked by Troy Bowles to put that to rest, Michigan wins 34-17.

I do not think any of us can draw meaningful conclusions about this season from one game.  Michigan looked good in some respects, sloppy in others, and incomplete in still others.  It's a fool's errand to try to figure out what you have after one game, win or lose.  But next week in Norman, GameDay is coming to town for a prime-time matchup with the Sooners in a helmet game, which should tell us a whole lot more. They can get it done, but as always, it starts in the doing.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 34-17 is NOT a Scorigami as it has happened twice before (1995 Indiana being the most recent iteration).
  
• 110,648 were in attendance for the season opener, the 96th largest announced crowd in Michigan Stadium history.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 1-0-0 all-time against the University of New Mexico.
  
• Michigan moves to 8-1-0 all-time on August 30 (The loss was to 2015 Utah on the road in Harbaugh's debut.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 39-0-0 when scoring exactly 34 points (I'll need to conduct further research, but this might be Michigan's most wins without a loss for any particular score).
• Michigan moves to 38-17-2 all-time when allowing 17 points to the opposition (including 2024's victory over Michigan State).
• Michigan has won 29 games all-time by precisely 17 points, most recently in the 2019 Illinois game.

Live Forever

Game MVP Jordan Marshall; muddied but unbowed (Patrick Barron)

"Maybe I don't really wanna know

How your garden grows

'Cause I just wanna fly

Lately, did you ever feel the pain

In the morning rain

As it soaks you to the bone?"

--"Live Forever" by Oasis, the third single from the band's 1994 debut album Definitely Maybe

Let's be clear. Few, if any, of us expected this. We were riding high off the 13-10 victory over #2 Ohio State in Columbus, yes, a thing that still happened, or we were looking forward to what Bryce Underwood would bring next year. All of Michigan's top-drawer guys who could opt out for the draft got their pat on the back and a thank you Instagram post from fans because we understood. There was little to be gained from this. Alabama was mad that they were excluded from the CFP, that major players were not opting out, and that they were a three-score favorite. So, let's just kick it off, hope for the best, and look ahead to next season.

Maybe I just wanna fly

Wanna live, I don't wanna die

Maybe I just wanna breathe

Maybe I just don't believe

Maybe you're the same as me

We see things they'll never see

You and I are gonna live forever

One of the funniest things to realize about "Live Forever" is that it's just the same verse and chorus repeated three times. In that way, it is not fundamentally different from "Mr. Brightside."    So perhaps it is fitting that this game ended up being a bookend of 2024, starting in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day against Alabama and ending in Tampa on New Year's Eve against Alabama. The Michigan world is a very different place than it was 365 days ago, but there are some similarities. One of them is simple, Michigan can still play pretty darn good defense. Even without their three likely first-rounders on the defense, Michigan can still play some ball. Add to that the fact that Michigan got an absolute gift from the weather in the first quarter, and Michigan's defense suddenly put Jalen Milroe in the spin cycle. To wit.

The biggest complaint might have been that Michigan was only leading 16-0 after starting all those drives, but one was in the Alabama red zone. But if you've watched Michigan all year, you knew that was just how it would be. The weather improved, and the game settled into a defensive slugfest until Alabama used a bit of tempo and some favorable formations and matchups to get a touchdown and bring it to 16-7. The more significant issue arose when Michigan couldn't burn enough clock or get close enough for a long Zvada field goal attempt, instead opting to pin Alabama deep, which they did. But then this happened.

That felt like Chekov's timeout, especially in the fourth quarter, when Michigan was letting Alabama drive down the field again at the end of the half, needing a touchdown to win. While Michigan could limit Alabama to just a field goal, going into the half up six after you had been so effective in limiting what Alabama could do was frustrating. But it was also perfectly 2024 Michigan, so...

The third quarter settled into a very clear "no one can do very much" half, and then Davis Warren was injured, which meant that Alex Orji had to come in with all his known limitations. The ESPN broadcast team was openly calling for Michigan to let its hair down, open up the playbook, and do things it had not done all year. Mind you, with a backup quarterback who had been benched due to his propensity to turn it over at the most inopportune times, and an interim offensive coordinator with minimal play calling experience. So when Alex Orji threw an interception that put Alabama in business at midfield, you would be forgiven if you presumed this was the point where the other shoe dropped, the wheels came off, etc. Except, they didn't. The defense got just enough pressure on Jalen Milroe to force a six-and-out, which included a turnover on downs. Michigan would march down, get another field goal from arguably the 2024 team MVP, Dominic Zvada, and take a 19-10 lead. Yes, I wanted Michigan to go for it on fourth and less than 1 from the Alabama 19, but you take the points, go up two scores, and force Alabama to match. Alabama did get a field goal to bring it back to a one-score game, setting Michigan up with 4:38 left. It looked like the Tide would force a three-and-out when Jordan Marshall stopped the first down run after just two yards beyond the line of scrimmage, only to see defender Justin Jefferson punch, actually punch, Max Bredeson, earning a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct flag and Michigan getting a fresh set of downs at their own 42. But Michigan could do nothing with it, and the hope was that new punter Hudson Hollenbeck would continue his excellent day, which he did, dropping a 50-yarder on the Alabama size, only to see Ryan Williams finally make his presence felt and return it all the way to the Tide 44-yard line. The sequence that followed was a microcosm of Alabama's offense on the day, a series of incomplete passes mixed with big enough plays to put Milroe and friends on the Michigan fifteen and eventually set up a familiar story: 4th down in the Michigan red zone needing a touchdown at the end of the game to win and Jalen Milroe to get the snap. It was only fitting that Rayshaun Benny, who broke his ankle in the Rose Bowl to start the year, came in with pressure on Milroe, arms raised in pursuit to force a bad throw by Milroe, which fell harmlessly to the ground. Milroe stopped; Michigan wins again.

I don't know what to make of this Michigan season. On the one hand, it was deeply frustrating on the surface because the quarterback play was so middling. On the other hand, three of Michigan's losses were to teams in the CFP, a fourth was their only West Coast game (where every ETZ team in the Big Ten struggled this year), and the fifth was to a ten-win Illinois team. But this is also a team that underachieved on the field based on what they had on paper, but simultaneously beat #2 Ohio State on their own field for their fourth straight win in the series and beat a #11 Alabama team that was trying to show it deserved to be in the field of the College Football Playoff. It may not need to make sense. Trying to find narrative sense in a season doesn't always have to exist. We want a narrative to make all these things that happened make sense, but sometimes, they don't. Which is great about sports in general and college football in particular. Things don't necessarily have to make sense because it would be boring if they did. Michigan should not have beaten Ohio State or Alabama logically, but they did, and it's pretty great. Having climbed the mountain last year, to have done the thing that so many presumed was impossible, it feels like MCU movies after Endgame. The grand story arc is completed, and we must now find a new story to tell with some of our familiar characters. The result is uneven, with some high points and low points, but when it hits, man, it still hits.

Until August 30, we'll see you at the Big House for New Mexico. Go Blue.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 19-13 is NOT a Scorigami (1938 Penn (the Ivy one), the only other entry, which was win #329.)
  
• 51,439 were in attendance in rainy, then sunny Tampa, the smallest crowd Michigan played in front of this season.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 4-3-0 all-time against the University of Alabama (they were 2-3 against Alabama on this date in 2023.)
  
• Michigan moves to 2-2-0 all-time on December 31 (The losses, of course, are the CFP semifinals against Georgia and TCU.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 14-4-1 when scoring exactly 19 points (this includes that Illinois game from 2022).
• Michigan moves to 47-12-1 all-time when allowing 13 points to the opposition (Yes, that includes the 13-13 tie in the 1992 Ohio State game.)
• Michigan has won 31 games all-time by precisely 6 points, most recently, last year's Ohio State game.

Wonderwall

 

It is perhaps only fitting that this game's winning points were scored by players wearing 19 and 96 (Michigan Athletics)

"Today is gonna be the day that they're gonna throw it back to you
By now, you should've somehow realized what you gotta do
I don't believe that anybody feels the way I do about you now

 

And backbeat, the word is on the street that the fire in your heart is out
I'm sure you've heard it all before, but you never really had a doubt
I don't believe that anybody feels the way I do about you now"

 

--"Wonderwall" by Oasis, the fourth single from the band's 1995 album (What's the Story) Mornin Glory

"Wonderwall" is inevitable.  Dread it, run from it, Wonderwall arrives all the same.  2.1 billion streams on Spotify inevitable.  Inevitable as Michigan beating Ryan Day's Ohio State team.

Look, I'm not going to tell you I called this, or predicted this, or thought it was going to happen.  I spent much of this week hoping Michigan would just keep this game respectable, perhaps close until halftime, enough to say "ahh well, nevertheless" when Ohio State pulled away in the second half on their way to Indianapolis for the first time since 2020.  All good things and whatnot.

So, when Michigan held Ohio State to a field goal on their first offensive drive, it seemed like a win.  The dam was holding.  Then Michigan went on an 11-play, 72-yard drive, only to get stopped at the OSU 3.  I still liked the aggressiveness to go for it there, but it didn't work.  Except, well, fortune favors the bold, and three plays later, Michigan got an Aamir Hall pick and set up at the OSU 2.  Two Kalel Mullings runs later, and Michigan was up 7-3.  Michigan led in this game after both teams had possessed the ball.  This seemed unfathomable, and yet.  And yet.

There are so many small moments in this edition of The Game that add up.  Ohio State's missed field goals, the backbreaking interceptions that don't actually break anyone's back.  Michigan doing just enough to not let Ohio State possess the ball.  Ohio State doing just enough to make their fans mad.  But in the end, the legacy drive of this game is going to be the final field goal drive.  Michigan counted Kalel Mullings (and a sprinkling of Jordan Marshall) to bring them home.  There was only one spectacular run, and it was when Mullings ran into the line on third down, got nothing, and bounced outside for 27 yards to put Michigan not only within Zvada's range, but inside the red zone with a fresh set of downs.  Michigan could now burn more clock and hope to, at worst, come away with a three-point lead.  That Ryan Day helped matters by attempting to call a second straight timeout, which had been illegal since 2023, and having to take an illegal substitution penalty out of a time out, gifting Michigan first and goal on the four meant they had to burn the remainder of their time outs, watch Zvada kick the field goal, and then hope they could get something together in the remaining 45 seconds They could not.  Michigan got some pressures; Howard and his all-America receivers could only muster one yard, and Michigan could, once more, kneel it out.

And all the roads we have to walk are winding
And all the lights that lead us there are blinding
There are many things that I would like to say to you
But I don't know how

Because maybe
You're gonna be the one that saves me
And after all
You're my wonderwall

Had I written this on Saturday, I might have had some thoughts about the post-game unpleasantness that might have seemed original or novel, but in the harsh light of Sunday morning, it is best to look at it as a thing that happened, and we can move on from it.

Michigan ended up being inevitable in a way that Ohio State felt like in the 2010s, in a way that Michigan felt like in the 1990s.  This game was a wonderful combination of the 1993, 1995, and 1996 editions of The Game.  Michigan underperformed expectations all year, even when adjusted for context, but they actually did start playing better as November wound on.  One of the questions that I saw people raising during the week was whether Sherrone "got" The Game and would he be able to demonstrate something novel, something big in the face of the overwhelming odds.  And then they just went out and won The Game with this version of Michigan against that version of Ohio State.  Michigan assures it won't finish below .500 this season, even with the likely opt-outs in the bowl game.  Michigan gets some recruiting and portal momentum going into the off-season.  No one knows what next season holds.  But for this season, a beautiful capper of an often frustrating and confusing year.  Ohio beaten, once more.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 13-10 is NOT a Scorigami (2000 Wisconsin, the only other entry, which was win #800).
  
• 106,005 were in attendance.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 62-52-6 all-time against Ohio State University
  
• Michigan moves to 3-5-0 all-time on November 30 (There's a lot of Ohio State games in there, including the 1918, which was the first time these two teams ended the season with each other.  It also includes the 1905 loss to Chicago 2-0, where the 56-game unbeaten streak by Yost's 1901-1905 teams.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 19-16-1 when scoring exactly 13 points (yes, that includes the 1992 tie with OSU).
• Michigan moves to 57-10-1 all-time when allowing 10 points to the opposition (Yes, that includes the 10-10 tie in the 1973 Ohio State game.)
• Michigan has won 50 games all-time by precisely 3 points, most recently, this year's Jug game.

Cast No Shadow

On Senior Day, Donovan made his way into the end zone one more time at the Big House (Michigan Athletics)

"Bound with all the weight of all the words he tried to say

Chained to all the places that he never wished to stay

Bound with all the weight of all the words he tried to say

As he faced the sun he cast no shadow."

 --"Cast No Shadow" by Oasis, from their 1995 album (What's the Story) Morning Glory

So much of sports fandom comes down to expectations and how reality plays out against that backdrop.  While by no means or shape am I a gambler, I find Vegas lines interesting as a thought exercise by people who want to make money on an outcome think the game will go.  For many years, I did the fun exercise of going through the schedule pre-season and figuring out the record (I stopped doing this after 2007 taught me that nothing makes sense.)  But, freed from expectations because of last year's team, I ended up doing it again this season and landed on 9-3 with losses to Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State.

That version of me did not know how dire things were in the quarterback room.

But expectations, even recalibrated ones, can still haunt us as we watch games.  So when the score was 10-6 with just under two minutes left in the first half, I think the mood in the stadium was dour at best.  Michigan fans had told themselves that the Oregon and Indiana games were a wash, but if Michigan just beat Northwestern, they would be bowl eligible and that would be enough for what otherwise felt like a lost season.  And in that moment, it felt like that was slipping away.

So when Michigan figured out how to put together an 11 play, 65-yard two minute drill, much of which fell under "don't think, just do" and ending with a Colston Loveland TD catch, the mood suddenly shifted back to "OK, it's under control."

I did not expect a 31 point explosion from the offense in the second half (as well as a bonus two points from a "I committed intentional grounding in the end zone and all I got was called for a lousy safety") from this Michigan offense.  Sometimes is was an explosive run by Kalel Mullings as part of his three touchdown day, sometimes it was taking advantage of short fields generated by special teams or a timely pick.  But to the point, Michigan didn't do anything fancy against an admittedly overmatched Northwestern team, but they did execute and it paid off.

We all know what lies ahead in the week to come.  It will not be anything like the last three years but that's OK, that was the expectation from the drop.  And who knows, sports are designed to defy expectations every so often.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 50-6 is a Scorigami!
• 109,830 were in attendance (884,382 for the home season, an average of 110,548, so that should allow Michigan to keep the attendance crown for another year.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 60-15-2 all-time against Northwestern University.
• Michigan moves to 11-7-0 all-time on November 23 (There's a lot of Ohio State games I there.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 7-0-0 when scoring exactly 50 points.
• Michigan moves to 84-5-4 all-time when allowing 6 points to the opposition (Michigan once beat Northwestern 74-6, so there's precedent here.)
• Michigan has won 7 games all-time by precisely 44 points, most recently, the 2022 Colorado State game.

Don't Look Back in Anger

It's not necessarily a metaphor, BUT... (Michigan Athletics)

"Slip inside the eye of your mind
Don't you know you might find
A better place to play?
You said that you'd never been
But all the things that you've seen
Slowly fade away"

--"Don't Look Back in Anger" by Oasis, the fourth single off of the 1995 album (What’s The Story) Morning Glory?

I don't really think there's that much left to be said about this season.  The most interesting thing about this game was that Michigan was in it for far longer than I think anyone nationally or locally expected.  A full credit to the Michigan defense for stepping up in a spot despite still being without Will Johnson.  Holding a very explosive Indiana team to 246 yards and 20 points feels like an accomplishment and one that a team with even a moderately functional offense could have taken advantage of in some way to secure the win.

But when Zeke Berry gives you the utter gift of an early third quarter interception at the IU 7 and you move the ball exactly four yards with an uninspired set of run calls, forcing you to settle for a field goal, well, it wasn't the harbinger that this was not going to be your day, but it does not help.  The reality is reasonable to see in the quantum reality where Michigan gets a touchdown there.  Now it's 17-10 Indiana.  Michigan still gets its field goal (17-13 IU) and on the touchdown, doesn't go for 2, they kick the extra points and Michigan takes a 21-17 lead.  When Indiana gets the ball back, now they have to drive the field for a touchdown, and maybe they do, and maybe they don't, they really had not been under that kind of pressure all year, but maybe Michigan finds a way to pull it off.  But it was not to be.  It's all the same problems, but with new and maddening wrinkles, like Sherrone Moore's failure to immediately call a time out after the first Lawson run when Indiana was in run out the clock mode.  Mistakes are being made all over the team and it's so frustrating, especially because this team is not good enough to overcome basic mistakes.

But a week off and a now titanic Big House showdown with a likely 4-6 Northwestern team that will, more than likely, be coming off a loss to Ohio State at Wrigley in order to see if Michigan can get bowl eligible.  It's the reality that has been staring Michigan in the face since the conclusion of the Washington game and knowing it's the truth does not make it any less frustrating.  We'll just have to hope Michigan can put enough together against the Wildcats to squeak into the post-season.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 20-15 is not a Scorigami, this is the third occurrence, joining 1959 Missouri and 1967.)
• 53,082 were in attendance (the largest Memorial Stadium crowd for a Michigan/Indiana game ever.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 62-11 all-time against Indiana University.
• Michigan moves to 11-8-0 all-time on November 9 (the previous November 9 losses include 2013 Nebraska, 1996 at Purdue, and a 4-0 loss to Harvard in 1895.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 7-9-0 when scoring exactly 15 points.
• Michigan moves to 24-21-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 11 games all-time by precisely 5 points, most recently, the 2012 Ohio State game, where we learned Brady Hoke teams had a weird knack for keeping it close against superior Ohio State teams.
  

 

Going Nowhere

Hey, the band's still good! (Michigan Athletics)

Here am I, going nowhere on a train

Here am I, growing older in the rain

--"Going Nowhere," by Oasis, the B-Side to the 1998 single "Stand By Me" 

It is an old but somehow familiar feeling that I had heading into this past weekend's Michigan football game against #1 in the nation, the Ducks of Oregon. It had been admittedly several years since I walked into Michigan Stadium and thought, "OK, let's just keep it close. Maybe some weird things happen, and we're in it." Then I found out Michigan was down both of its starting cornerbacks and well, there went that.

It was so academic that the lighter turnout in the student section had me checking my CFB scores app frequently to see what was actually happening in Georgia/Florida. I watched Indiana roar back on MSU with 47 unanswered points, knowing that Michigan is heading to Bloomington next week.

Some interesting things did happen in this game.  Interesting doesn't always mean good, but Michigan getting a muffed punt turned into excellent field position to score was certainly interesting.  The Big Ten not reviewing Oregon's first touchdown was certainly interesting.  The fourth down call that ended up with Semaj Morgan throwing a pass to Alex Orji, where Orji ended up running into a CBS camera, was certainly interesting.  But mostly, this looked pretty much like what anyone who had been watching this team all year expected, disorganized and disjointed offensive play calling, defensive choices that allowed busts to happen, and the best team in the country looking like it when it counted.  (I don't mind the last Oregon touchdown.  Perception matters to the committee, and a three-score win looks better than a two-score win.  Besides, Michigan should have stopped them if they didn't want them to score.)

The Washington game gave Michigan the benefit of shattering anyone's illusions about this year's team, and for that, I am grateful.  I do wonder what Michigan would have done against Indiana's schedule to this point, probably 7-2, potentially flipping the MSU and Washington results due to venue, but you play the schedule that the league assigns you (or that your athletic department sets up to try and make for interesting non-conference games that aren't just G5 games.)  Indiana has done virtually everything right this year and has shown one very powerful thing, you can bring a winning culture in with the portal.  Michigan's transition costs from Harbaugh and from winning the national championship were very high, but I think fans would accept the results every time.  (A slightly buzzed Ducks fan leaving Section 7 gave me a pat on the shoulder and said, "You won the national title last year, man.  Someone asked me how long I would be willing to suck to win a Natty, and I said, 'Fifteen years.' so this is nothing, man."  Oregon fans were, by and large, boisterous and positive, and I did not really encounter any jerk behavior on their part.)

If the viewing experience has gotten worse at Michigan Stadium this year, it's because I've been surrounded by more buzzed or drunk fans than at any point in my life.  It's not my place to say Michigan shouldn't have introduced this lucrative revenue stream to the Big House, but it's been kind of a bummer to have folks just saying whatever comes to their mind and expect you to have a full-on conversation with them during game action.  But I am an old man and just one season ticket holder, so my voice will not matter that much.

They're off to Indiana to see what happens next.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 38-17 is a Scorigami (meaning in Rodger Sherman parlance, this was a Fetty Wapping, though not a true one because Michigan was the home team.  However, on the Michigan Stadium scorebug, it was, so your mileage may vary.)
• 110,576 were in attendance (the 98th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 3-3-0 all-time against the University of Oregon.
• Michigan moves to 13-3-2 all-time on November 2 (the previous November 2 losses were to Yale in the disastrous 1881 season and to Michigan State in EL in 2013, where Brady Hoke famously said he would have a good assessment of what this team was like...after Week 10.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 18-17-2 when scoring exactly 17 points.
• Michigan moves to 0-8 all-time when allowing 38 points to the opposition (hey, remember the last time Indiana beat Michigan. Yeah, that was 38-21).
• Michigan has lost 7 games all-time by precisely 21 points, most recently, the 2019 Wisconsin game, where things just felt completely and totally out of sorts.
• Michigan has now played 22 games against AP #1 at the kickoff (the first was Northwestern in 1936? OK, who knew? Anyway...). Michigan is now 3-18-1 in those games. Their first-ever win over AP #1 at the time of kick was the 1969 Ohio State game. They also beat #1 Notre Dame in 1981 and #1 Miami in 1984. The most recent game against #1 at kick was 2019 Ohio State, and I don't want to think about it.)

Go Let It Out

Paul stays in Ann Arbor. (Michigan Athletics)

Paint no illusion, try to click with what you got

Taste every potion 'cause if you like yourself a lot

Go let it out, go let it in, and go let it out

 --"Go Let It Out" by Oasis from the 2000 album Standing on the Shoulders of Giants

For the first time in almost twenty years of blogging about Michigan football, I took last week off from writing a game column.  Partially, I was at a wedding and had to watch the situation from an app in a barn in the Irish Hills, and partially, well, did we really need to talk about last week's game?  Everything that had been a problem continued to be a problem.

But how do you skip talking about the Michigan State game?  Coming in, I told several people who asked me what I thought was going to happen this weekend that for the first time since I first remember having a strong opinion about Michigan/Michigan State, (the infamous 1990 game where Michigan came in as #1 and lost on the failed two-point conversion when Eddie Brown tripped Desmond in the end zone, and it was not called.) I genuinely had no idea what was going to happen and that any result would not surprise me.  (I still predicted Michigan 27, MSU 14, because I've been doing the Friday Five for over two decades.)  But you could be forgiven if thinking Michigan's recent tumble down a seemingly unending staircase would continue based on the first 25 minutes of the game.  But running a hurry-up offense, Michigan got together a drive in just under three minutes capped by a Davis Warren TD pass to Colston Loveland that looked like things would tie things up until a bad snap led to a nightmare two-point conversion attempt, and Michigan was down 7-6.  However, Josiah Stewart strip-sacked Aidan Chiles, and Kenneth Black got his turn with the buffs after just covering this fumble, which set up a short field and a quick Michigan field goal, and the maize and blue were ahead 9-7 at the half, wholly unexpectedly based on what had been shown for much of the first half.

So when Michigan came out of the locker room for the second half with their "July drive" and went 75 yards in a shade over five minutes, things looked much better.  Michigan State would counter with a field goal to bring it back to a one-possession game, but after a three and out for each side, Michigan took advantage of good field position and used arguably their most effective passer, Donovan Edwards, to find Colston Loveland in the end zone (as well as completing the octopus with Davis Warren finding him for the two-point conversion to make the missed extra point moot, which, let's face it, you know was in the back of the mind of most Michigan fans that it was going to be the downfall of this game.)

So here's where it gets interesting.  Michigan State is down two scores and probably needs to move with purpose with 13:20 left in the fourth.  Instead, they went on a thirteen-play, 75-yard drive that took over seven minutes, but one that did end in a touchdown to bring them within seven.  Now Michigan needed to burn clock and...went full Lloydball with a three-and-out that burned just 98 seconds before a middling punt that set MSU up at their own 49.  While an intentional grounding helped push Michigan State back to their own 35, the defense looked like it was going to give it all away, especially after a 30-yard gain on third down to put the Spartans on the edge of the red zone.  While a false start followed a short run to push MSU back outside the red zone, Michigan State faced 4th and 5 from the Michigan 16 and got the two-minute time out to think it over.  Michigan's pressure forced Chiles into a bad throw that was almost picked off in the end zone, but now a new concern.  Michigan got the ball back with 1:52 left to go and the Spartans had all three times out, so Michigan needs at least one first down to not have to punt the ball back to Michigan State (we all remember how that can go.)  But Alex Orji scrambled for a first down, which, ironically, meant Michigan needed another first down, and after two short Mullings runs, 3rd and five loomed with MSU with one timeout left.  But once more, Alex Orji went for eight yards on a designed run, including a gorgeous baseball slide to end it, some kneel downs to end it, some extracurriculars (because, of course), but for just the sixth time since Michigan State joined the Big Ten, an unranked Michigan team won the Battle for Paul Bunyan (as opposed to eight losses, Michigan's been ranked for a lot of these.)  Sherrone Moore becomes the first Michigan coach to beat MSU in his first season.  

Michigan may not have saved their season, but they certainly didn't make it feel any worse than it does at the moment and likely keep the dream of bowl eligibility alive (not that it will be easy, given the Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State games left on the slate.)  But my goodness, if left with the choice of beating Michigan State in a lost season or losing to Michigan State, we know that this win is a good thing.  Yes, the toxicity of this rivalry needs to come down and there needs to be a path forward where these things don't devolve into fights or worse seemingly every year.  But it is also much nicer to build on a win.  There are some clear things that have improved, while others have slid back a little bit, and it may be difficult to see the improvement next week when #1 Oregon comes in, but for now, Paul stays in Ann Arbor for another year, and that's enough for today.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• Win 1,009
• 24-17 is NOT a Scorigami (3rd time, most recently 11/20/1999 against Ohio State.)
• 110,828 were in attendance (the 79th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 74-38-5 all-time against Michigan State University.  Michigan retains the Paul Bunyan Trophy for another year (and moves to 41-29-2 in the trophy series).
• Michigan moves to 11-5 all-time on October 26 (the previous October 26 game was the most recent game with Notre Dame in the rain in 2019.) 
  
  
• Michigan moves to 38-8 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 37-16-2 all-time when allowing 17 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 53 games all-time by precisely 7 points, most recently, well, a Rose Bowl of some acclaim in January 2024.

(It's Good) To Be Free

Dono does like running against UW.  (Michigan Athletics)

The little things they make me so happy

All I wanna do is live by the sea

Yeah, little things they make me so happy

But it's good, yes it's good, it's good to be free

 --"(It's Good) To Be Free" by Oasis, first released as a B-Side to "Whatever." 

Yesterday's game was an interesting exercise in paradigms.  When Washington got out to their 14-0 lead as Michigan's defense looked slow, slippy, and confused, and sometimes all three at once, there was a willingness to say, "Yep, this is what we were all expecting."  The offense looked disorganized.  Injuries, including some we did not know about, were piling up.  It looked very much like the Huskies could name their number and send Michigan into the bye week limping.

The Jack Tuttle came in.  The seventh-year quarterback.  The latest in a series of "Well, maybe this could work" options.  Indeed, he couldn't be much worse than we had seen this season at the position."  Early results were promising.  Tuttle hit a couple of little passes, he scrambled for a pair of seven-yard runs on first downs to keep the chains moving and ahead of the sticks, and then Donovan Edwards looked like the Donovan that we've been waiting for all year, a 39 yard TD run, Michigan was back within seven and a game was to be made of it.  Michigan forced a three-and-out before a second promising drive in a row stalled out at the Washington 27, but a Dominic Zvada field goal was true, and it was 14-10.  Washington would bookend the first half with a second missed field goal, and Michigan would get the ball to start the second half.

One of the biggest things I miss from the Harbaugh years is that Michigan was genuinely a second-half team.  Adjustments would be made, the fitness level would show out, and Michigan would look better closing a game out than they did to start.  For the first drive, it looked like a little bit of Michigan of old, a methodical, efficient 75-yard drive that ended with a little Tuttle scramble to find Colston Loveland uncovered alone in the end zone, and Michigan took a three-point lead.  But that was the last real positive moment on offense.  Washington got a long drive to tie it with a field goal, Michigan didn't seem like it had a real plan on offense again, and things looked up when Ernest Hausmann made a spectacular interception in the middle of the field, but the ball went back to Washington five plays later thanks to a Tuttle fumble, which felt like the doom like object everyone watching was waiting for.  Washington scored a TD to take the lead, Tuttle threw a backbreaking interception trying to hit Loveland, Washington got a field goal, and that was the ten-point margin of victory for the favored Huskies, leading to a confusing field storming on the Montlake Cut and a bizarre suggestion by Noah Eagle that the Huskies had "avenged" their National Championship game loss.  Hmmm...Trophy go Brrr..

This will probably sound strange, but I was disappointed by the loss but almost immediately over it.  This Michigan team is so deeply flawed, with various reasons for those flaws that can be explained away, that I just don't feel the angst of years past.  Winning solves a lot of problems, and it also solves a lot of future problems if you let it.  While it is deeply frustrating and endlessly curious that Michigan's defense looks so middling with three NFL talents on it, well, you know, being very late in the hiring process perhaps left Michigan with an imperfect fit in the name of attempted continuity.  There are other areas that further this cause.  

But here's the thing.  I'm not too broken up about it because it doesn't feel like we're wandering in the desert anymore.  Yes, a blue blood should be able to "reload" and stay at the top of the heap, but that isn't how it worked this time.  I'm OK with that.  I'm still going to enjoy this team for what it is; I'll be disappointed when things don't go right, and I'll still cheer loudly when they are successful.  But in the end, it's good to be free.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 17-27 is NOT a Scorigami (3rd time, most recently 11/28/2020, against Penn State, which I mean, I wouldn't blame you if you didn't remember)
• 72,132 were in attendance (or about 700 fewer people than the National Championship Game)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 9-6-0 all-time against the University of Washington.
• Michigan moves to 16-3 all-time on October 28 (losses to MSU in 1935 and Roger Staubach's Navy team in 1963.  The 2019 win over Iowa was the birth of The Spreadsheet.) 
  
  
• Michigan moves to 18-16-2 when scoring exactly 17 points.
• Michigan moves to 6-15 all-time when allowing 27 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 18 games all-time by precisely 10 points, most recently, the aforementioned 2020 Penn State game.

Fade Away

It turns out that rain can be very cinematic as well. (Michigan Athletics)

I'll paint you the picture

'Cause I don't think you live 'round here no more

I've never even seen the key to the door

We only get what we will settle for

While we're living

The dreams we have as children fade away

--"Fade Away" by Oasis, first released as a B-Side to "Cigarettes and Alcohol" 

There is a point in a college football season where you can no longer speak lovingly and hopefully about that which needs to be fixed or corrected.  In general, by the end of the traditional non-conference schedule, it's not that you are what your record says, but it's probably not reasonable to think you're going to see leaps and bounds improvement.  You just have to believe that what you have is good enough to win games.

In the first half, Michigan looked like a team that, if it wasn't complete, it was pretty much what you would hope for after last week.  Defense forcing a punt, Michigan goes on a long touchdown drive, mixing in some passing, and get a long Mullings TD run to go up 7-0.  A missed Gopher field goal lead to a trading of punts for a bit before Michigan stripped the ball from Daniel Jackson and recovered the fumble, setting up a short field and a touchdown eerily similar to last week's game winner (same spot in the same end zone, Mullings running behind Bredeson.) Michigan's up 14-0 and things look good from there.  More three and outs lead back to a Minnesota punt, which Michigan blocked (I called this in the stands, given it was 4th and 21 on the Minnesota 31, I thought Michigan might choose to dial up pressure.  I rarely get these things right, so it was nice to have that one!)  Michigan takes advantage of the short field, touchdown Michigan, 21-0.  An arm punt INT for Minnesota down the sideline looked like Michigan might be able to get wrap around scores, but this was, in fact, the last thing that went exactly right for the maize and blue.

I cannot be completely shocked that a Michigan defense struggled with tempo, it's just, Michigan had two sacks of Minnesota on their end of half two minute drill, the second of which looked to push Minnesota out of field goal range, only to see the Gophers complete a 44 yard hail mary to the one yard line and a fire drill field goal to make it 24-3 to head into the half.

So, here's the thing.  I do not like officiating conspiracies or anything, but I do find it interesting that PJ Fleck had an extended conversation with the officials after Orji ran out of bounds right in front of him (which ended up with Minnesota taking a time out very early in the third quarter) and suddenly, the officiating seemed to turn against Michigan.  The illegal hands to the face personal foul on Graham that kept Minnesota's first touchdown drive alive changed the entire complexion of the game.  Minnesota probably has to settle for a field goal there which would have made it 24-6, but instead, touchdown Gophers a few plays later, now it's 24-10.  Then a great punt return sets up a short field for the Gophers and now it's 24-17 and the entire stadium is starting to feel queasy.  Michigan would go on a long field goal drive to try and burn off clock (there were way too many snaps when there were still double digits on the play clock and the baffling decision to throw on third down with 4:38 left, which stopped the clock.)  But a field goal made it a two possession game.  So of course, Michigan's defense allows the Gophers to go down the field in under three minutes to make it 27-24 game.

Was the offsides call on the onside kick correct?  No, but the ball clearly hit a Gopher in the sequence, so maybe wrong process, correct result.  Michigan couldn't quite kneel it out, but once the 40 second play clock started with 39 second left on the clock, a sigh of relief went up, the Jug stays in Ann Arbor until at least the 2026 meeting in Minneapolis, and Michigan goes to 4-1 with a trip to Seattle on the docket.

I have to keep reminding myself that every game is not integrally connected to some larger, pre-written story, it's an independent event in a series of chapters that make up the story.  Wins are better than losses, but it's hard to see the wins keep coming with the things that keep showing up week in and week out. 

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• Win 1,008
• 27-24 is NOT a Scorigami (4th time, most recently 9/21/2024 in last week's game against USC)
• 110,340 were in attendance (the 110th-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 78-25-3 all-time against the University of Minnesota.  Michigan retains the Little Brown Jug at least until the next scheduled meeting between the teams, at Minnesota in 2026.
• Michigan moves to 14-1 all-time on September 28 (only loss is the 51-31 loss to Florida State in 1991) 
  
  
• Michigan moves to 46-7 when scoring exactly 27 points.
• Michigan moves to 19-18 all-time when allowing 24 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 49 games all-time by precisely 3 points, most recently, well, last week.

Slide Away

Will power, it's now or never. (Michigan Athletics)

Slide in baby, together we'll fly

I've tried praying

But I don't know what you're saying to me

Now that you're mine

We'll find a way of chasing the Sun

Let me be the one who shines with you

In the morning, we don't know what to do

Two of a kind

We'll find a way to do what we've done

Let me be the one who shines with you

And we can slide away

--"Slide Away" by Oasis from their 1994 debut album Definitely Maybe

I think the Stripe Out was a great metaphor for this week.  The instructions were simple enough, odd sections in maize, even sections in navy, students in maize.  I had my doubts because Michigan fans are a "you can't tell me what to do" group, each in their own little ways.  But those doubts were tempered by possibility.  It could work.  I could be one of those things that is straightforward enough that even when faced with failure points, it comes through.

In other news, Alex Orji was named Michigan's starting quarterback for this game against USC.

On some level, most observers of Michigan football with Alex Orji at quarterback figured the game plan would be:

• Rely on a stout offensive line to make holes for the running back
• Run with your one-two punch of Edwards and Mullings
• Throw occasionally to try and stop the opponents from stacking the box
• Play like demons on defense and force some turnovers to create scores or short fields.
• Make fewer mistakes than they do.

And honestly, it kind of worked for a while.  Michigan got explosive 40+ yard touchdown runs from Mullings and Edwards and held USC to a short field goal to head into the locker room up 14-3 in what, much like looking at the Stripe Out's success, was a pleasant surprise.

But, if you're one dimensional on offense, it does make it much easier to stop you, and USC came out of the locker room with some significant adjustments on both sides of the ball.  Only a Will Johnson pick six (to make him Michigan's all-time leader in interceptions returned for a touchdown) kept Michigan's hopes alive, but after a wide open Trojan found the end zone with just over seven minutes remaining to go up 24-20 (and suddenly the blocked extra point loomed large).  Michigan's response drive was...a three and out that went for -4 yards and resulted in a punt that USC took on Michigan's 38.  Michigan's defense, to their immense credit, rose up and got a three and out with negative yardage, which put Michigan's offense on their own 11 with just over four minutes left.  The brain trust in the crowd was imploring Michigan to move it, but also, without a sense of a passing game, it seemed highly improbable that Michigan was going to find a way to get back into the lead.  Orji found Marlin Klein for a ten yard pass, setting up a critical third and one.

Enter Kalel Mullings.

Kalel Mullings, fittingly, played Superman on the next carry, blasting through the line, up the middle of the field, shedding a tackler that had wrapped himself completely around Mullings waist, stiff arming a second that had joined the fun, and 63 yards later, set up a 1st and 10 inside the USC red zone at the 17 as the we hit the two minute timeout.  Michigan still needed six more plays, 1-8-2-3-incomplete-2 to set up the ball game, fourth and goal from the 1.  Everyone in my section is spending the time out to reach the same conclusion, don't get cute, off tackle behind the fullback.  Kirk Campbell agreed, Mullings followed his blockers, got a full foot down in the end zone before getting pushed back.  The official's arms went up, the point after sailed through the uprights, and Michigan was up by three with 37 seconds to go.

Michigan's defense made the remaining time perfunctory, not allowing USC to cross midfield before forcing a turnover on downs.  Michigan kneeled it out and had an improbable "season-saving" victory over a top 15 team and, as strange as it sounds, a win in the conference opener.

Michigan threw for 32 total yards in this game, and won.  According to Jason Kirk, this is the sixth time since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2015 that Michigan threw for less than 100 yards.  They have won all six of those games.  Michigan believes its identity is a running football team, that is is SMASH, that it can impose its will upon you without being multiple.  This might be true.  But it would have been very easy to point to those 32 total yards of passing offense as "you just can't win like that in modern football."  That's probably also very true.  

"Slide Away" might be my favorite Oasis song.  Noel claims that the song was just waiting for him in the guitar he borrowed from Johnny Marr of the Smiths, Marr having got it from Pete Townshend of The Who. But it took Noel to find the song, to put it together, and to make it what many consider the lynchpin of their much beloved debut album.  For one afternoon at Michigan Stadium, on the final day of summer, Michigan ran for its life, it found the song that was just in the guitar and was rewarded in the end.  That doesn't always happen, so we must savor it when it does. 

Tales from the Spreadsheet
Win 1,007
27-24 is NOT a Scorigami (3rd time, most recently 10/9/2004 in the Little Brown Jug game against Minnesota.)
110,702 were in attendance (the 92nd-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history.)

Michigan moves to 5-6-0 all-time against the University of Southern California.
You may remember that Michigan moves to 6-2 all-time on the 21st night of September. (Losses to Cal in 1968 and Wisconsin in 2019)

Michigan moves to 45-7 when scoring exactly 27 points.
Michigan moves to 18-18 all-time when allowing 24 points to the opposition.
Michigan has won 48 games all-time by precisely 3 points, most recently, the 2021 Nebraska game with the Haskins Hurdle and Money Moody.

I Hope, I Think, I Know

Well, things are definitely happening. (Michigan Athletics)

They're trying hard to put me in my place

And that is why I gotta keep running

The future is mine and it's no disgrace

'Cause in the end the past means nothing

You tell me I'm free, then you tie me down

And from my chains I think it's a pity

What did it cost you to wear my crown?

You don't like me, why don't you admit it?

"I Hope, I Think, I Know" by Oasis from their 1997 album Be Here Now. 

I hope, I think, I know is a very useful framework for discussing things because it allows a person to classify the knowledge they possess.  It's even more useful in a sporting context, because a lot of things that sports fans "think" are actually things they hope.

So, I hope the Michigan coaching staff takes a hard look at the starting offensive personnel for this week's game and makes some hard decisions about what the future looks like.  I think they need to do that, because Davis Warren is not valuing the football, Donovan Edwards seems like he has difficulty running between the tackles, and the offensive line still looks like it needs time to find the best five out there.  I don't know anything though, this is just the observations of a fan.

Michigan was up 28-3 with nine minutes to go thanks to three rushing TDs and a solid short pass from Orji to Hogan Hansen for a fourth TD and they pulled the defensive starters.  So when the second-string allowed a nine play, 64 yard TD drive that featured any number of missed tackles, well, it's annoying.  OK fine, a three and out to just try and end the game, again, annoying, but what are you going to do in that situation. BUT the roughing the passer on a fourth and 3 that fell incomplete was one of the signs of the biggest symptoms of problems on the Michigan team.  So of course Michigan gives up a late touchdown and two point conversion to make everybody but Arkansas State feel worse about themselves.

I hope things will get better, and I think they will because the talent is there.  But I know that this season is definitely not shaping up the way most of us thought it was going to back during the summer. 

Tales from the Spreadsheet
Win 1,006
28-18 is NOT a Scorigami (2nd time, most recently 11/25/1989 in the season finale against Ohio State.)
110,250 were in attendance (the 110th-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history, 16th largest Homecoming crowd).

Michigan moves to 1-0-0 all-time against Arkansas State University.
Michigan moves to 6-1 all-time on September 14. (Lot of Notre Dame matchups on this day.)

Michigan moves to 43-6 when scoring exactly 28 points.
Michigan moves to 8-3 all-time when allowing 18 points to the opposition.
Michigan has won 36 games all-time by precisely 10 points, most recently, the 2016 Indiana game in the snow.

Some Might Say

Real talk: I kind of forgot Charleston was on the roster until he caught this pass (Michigan Athletics) 

Some might say that sunshine follows thunder

Go and tell it to the man who cannot shine

Some might say that we should never ponder

On our thoughts today 'cause they hold sway over time

Some might say we will find a brighter day

--"Some Might Say" by Oasis, the lead single off their 1995 album (What's the Story) Morning Glory

I am not saying I was some kind of prophet when I say this, but my mind had been coming back all week to Michigan's 1998 game against Syracuse.  I remember that game very well, like even when I looked at the box score, it was exactly what I remembered.  It was a warm and windy September day.  Donovan McNabb sliced and diced Michigan through the air and on the ground, Syracuse was up 24-7 at half, and 38-7 at the end of three, and Michigan put up 21 in the fourth, it was never as close as the final score indicated.  It was as bad as I remember feeling at Michigan Stadium about watching a Michigan team until probably 2007 Oregon (App State was shock and disbelief, it's a different bad feeling.)  There are days where it is just not your day and you have to accept that.  I wondered if this Texas team, that looked really good on paper, would put it all together on the big stage.

They did, and then some.

It is not a surprise that a team where Quinn Ewers is playing well enough to keep Arch Manning on the bench without even a rumbling would be able to execute on offense, even down their top two running backs.  Sark schemed up some beautifully simple plays to get his guys into space, the Texas offensive line blocked very well, and Michigan decided that missing tackles would be a solid thing to keep doing and Michigan was down 24-3 at the half and it could have been much worse.

That Michigan did not look organized or competent on offense until when they game had already been decided was deeply frustrating and speaks more to future concerns than anything else.  Receivers looked to be struggling with their positioning with an alarming frequency, Davis Warren often looking like he was only comfortable throwing passes when he was running for his life, very little out of a running game that allegedly on paper was one of the strongest position groups.  All of it was confounding and none of it looked like it has easy answers.  

And yet, there's a level of...it's not contentment and it's not indifference.  It feels like having returned to the mountaintop, having proven it's possible, a number of Michigan fans looked at all of the changes that happened between last year and this year, accounted for it appropriately in their emotional tenor, and while aren't happy that things felt so off and so non-competitive for most of the day, it's that they understood the circumstances.  They're upset, but it's tempered by the context of last season, of the last three seasons.  So many things went right, it almost feels like there's a cosmic paying of the piper occurring (which some might argue that the years preceding this run had already built up the karmic credit, but that's an epistemological discussion for another day.)

I do believe that brighter days are ahead, but clearly they're going to come with a lot of work to do to get there.  Let's hope there's a plan in place to get there.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

31-12 is a Scorigami

111,170 were in attendance (the 60th-largest crowd of Michigan Stadium history, largest post-pandemic crowd).

Michigan moves to 0-2-0 all-time against the University of Texas.

Michigan moves to 4-1 all-time on September 7.

Michigan moves to 16-9-2 when scoring exactly 12 points (many of these 12 point games were pre-WWI.)

Michigan moves to 8-12-0 all-time when allowing 31 points to the opposition.

Michigan has lost 7 games all-time by precisely 19 points, most recently, the cursed 2020 Citrus Bowl vs. Alabama.