Fifty Mission Cap

Bryce understands the assignment (Rachel Leggett)

My fifty-mission cap

I worked it in

I worked it in to look like that

It's my fifty-mission cap

(It's his fifty-mission cap)

And I worked it in

I worked it in

And I worked it in to look like that

And I worked it in to look like that

--"Fifty Mission Cap" by The Tragically Hip, the second single from the band's 1993 album Fully Completely

"Fifty Mission Cap" is primarily the relaying of a story about Bill Barilko's 1951 Stanley Cup-winning goal and his subsequent disappearance after a plane crash in a remote part of northern Ontario.  But, as this excellent blog post explains, it's actually about appearances, and about seeming to be something rather than actually being.  Which brings us to last night's game.

It has become clearer to me that there are two types of rivalries in college football: The ones where you want your team to beat the opponent and revel in it when it happens, and the ones where you are merely relieved that your team did not lose to the opponent, and even that relief is often cold comfort.

Michigan presents a stark vision of this.  Ohio State has been so good for so long, the stakes frequently so high when the teams meet, that victory seems like the only acceptable outcome, but a loss, while frustrating, is understandable.  Certainly, the last four years have helped reestablish this rivalry's essence, which had gone cold for nigh on a decade.  But the Michigan State rivalry is the lowest-floor, lowest-ceiling rivalry.  Yes, Michigan players love parading Paul around in his maize pants and custom-made hat, and now the Buffs, after a win, are bowl-eligible before October is over. Still, for fans, it was either "win the game you were supposed to as a two-touchdown favorite" or "hear about this crap for a year, and probably longer." Why am I so sure of that?  Because that is how the history of this rivalry works.  I am mostly just grateful that there was no weird kerfuffle or dustup after the game, that the strangest part of the endgame was Bryce doing selfies with fans or passing out Hot Hands, which is like a 0.25 out of 10 on the outrage scale.

As for the game itself, it went from cruise control in the first quarter, to squeaky bum time in the second, to asserting control in the third, to being grateful for Michigan State's decision-making in the fourth (and 12 penalties for 105 yards).  Jimmy Rolder had a game so solid, I'm willing to dub it "The Jimmy Rolder Game." 10 solo tackles, one sack, three tackles for loss, and a recovered fumble, plus an absolute cruise missile of a TFL on a fourth down when the Spartans tried to tempo Michigan subbing, and he shot the gap and pretty much ended Michigan State's last gasp.

In the end, Michigan had its highest rushing output against Michigan State since the 1994 meeting, with Haynes going for 152 and a pair of touchdowns, complemented by Marshall's 110 and a TD, which is a reminder of Tyrone Wheatley's 153 and two TDs and Tshimanga Biakabatuka's 141 and a touchdown in the 1994 game mentioned above.  Michigan won a game on the road where Bryce Underwood passed for fewer yards than Davis Warren did in last year's edition of this game!  Michigan won, Paul stays in Ann Arbor, and everyone can move on with their lives.  Hail.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 31-20 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Two previous occurrences, 1969 Purdue and 2018 Indiana (the snow angels game.)) (In case you were wondering, 31-13 is also NOT a Scorigami)
  
• 75,085 were in attendance for the game.
• Win 1,018.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 75-38-3 all-time against Michigan State University (including games when they were still State Agricultural College, Michigan Agricultural College, Michigan State College of Agriculture and Applied Science, Michigan State University of Agriculture and Applied Science, and finally Michigan State University), including four straight wins in the series for the first time since the 2002-2007 run of six straight wins.
• Michigan moves to 17-4-0 all-time on October 25, the feast of St. Crispin. (Like last week, it is Michigan's first win on this date since 2003!  Michigan evens its record against Michigan State to 2-2 on St. Crispin's Day —(we few, we happy few).
  
  
• Michigan improves to 46-4-0 when scoring exactly 31 points.
• Michigan moves to 25-21-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 22 games all-time by precisely 11 points, the most recent example being the aforementioned Snow Angels game against Indiana in 2018.

Vaccination Scar

Getting to hear master bluesmen practicing their craft. (Michigan Athletics)

I'll tell you if I'm able

That is, I'll tell you like it is

It went down like a bad card table

Like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Like the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

Swimming on a bit

Stop and treading water as the sun assimilated the words

For lighthouse fire

Burning down to embers' end

The mystery met

The sky just-reddened, heading home under dusk

Is life just forgetting

Another word for frivolous

--"Vaccination Scar" by the Tragically Hip from their 2004 album In Between Evolution 

One of the beauties of the songs of the Tragically Hip is that sometimes, they're just really deep, meandering thought exercises that also just sound good with the music behind them.  But you shouldn't necessarily worry if you cannot figure out why you like it; you just do.

Which brings us to today's game.  Other than one masterful play-calling drive from Chip, the first half was best described as a pair of teams waiting for the other one to screw up.  And screw up they did, but only annoyingly, never critically.

We had plays that needed reviews that didn't get them, including two critical spots on a 4th and 1 and a 3rd down that set up what was sad to be a 4th and 1.  But in the end, it didn't matter.  Michigan got a pair of picks, one from Cole Sullivan, one from Jimmy Rolder, and cashed in both to take a 7-7 game stuck in the mire to a 21-7 game, then got Washington off the field with a fourth down sack that might have been a fumble but it's moot, leading to a field goal, and that is all there was.  This was a middling game for a very long time until it wasn't.  That's OK. Sometimes football is like that, and coming away from a game like that with a win is about the best you can hope for.  The injuries piled up, for sure, hopefully nothing too serious beyond a likely season-ender for Link, and definitely some things to clean up, but this felt a lot better than last week, which, admittedly, did not take much.  But still.

Hey, Michigan State in East Lansing next week.  Nothing ever goes sideways with that.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-7 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Five previous occurrences, most recently 1995 Memphis.)
  
• 110,710 were in attendance for the game.
• Win 1,017, which ties the closest we have been to getting a win number that matched the date of the win. (Win 912 was on 9/13).
  
  
• Michigan moves to 10-6-0 all-time against the University of Washington, including 3-1 in the last five years, which just seems weird that it's been that many, and yet!
  
• Michigan moves to 14-5-0 all-time on October 18 (It is Michigan's first win on this date since 2003 and Michigan's first game on this date since 2008!)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 40-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 112-13-4 all-time when allowing 7 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 30 games all-time by precisely 17 points, the most recent example being a 34-17 victory over New Mexico in Ann Arbor in 2025.

Looking for a Place to Happen

Andrew Marsh had a nice night (Michigan Athletics)

Wayward ho! Away we go

It's a shame to leave this masterpiece

With its gallery gods and its garbage-bag trees

So I'll paint a scene, from memory

So I'd know who murdered me

It's a vain pursuit, but it helps me to sleep

--"Looking for a Place to Happen" by The Tragically Hip, the fifth single from the band's third studio album, Fully Completely 

OK, I'm not happy, but I'm not angry.  I didn't "call it" by any means, but the computers did say this was more than likely to be a USC win, so any belief in Michigan winning was largely vibes-based or hope-centered.  That is not a bad thing, per se, but it was not as simple as Michigan heading out to LA, securing a nice win, and getting into the playoff conversation.  

What I saw yesterday was a team that couldn't tackle and couldn't fit USC's runs.  It was shocking and disappointing.  This would have been a much more of a beatdown on the scoreboard if Michigan had not secured two timely turnovers while USC was driving and in the red zone.  But the reality was, USC looked like they could get whatever they wanted on the ground, Michigan could not finish a tackle to save their lives, and Bryce and company could only do so much, and you end up losing by 18.  

There's not a lot to say that doesn't devolve into complaining about Wink (Michigan isn't going to fire him in season) or being overly pessimistic about the rest of the season.  Washington is a good test this coming weekend, if they can contain the Huskies' QB, it should be a relatively straightforward affair, and if not, well, Michigan hockey looked excellent this past weekend, taking a pair from #6 Providence at their rink.  We'll see how it goes, right?

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 13-31 IS  a Scorigami!  (honestly, did not predict that! A 31-14 loss would not have been, so thanks, Sherrone, for going for two?)
  
• 75,500 were in attendance for the game, which is the smallest crowd to see Michigan play this season.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 5-7-0 all-time against the University of Southern California (all of USC's wins have been in Los Angeles County).
  
• Michigan moves to 17-3-0 all-time on October 11 (Michigan's most recent loss was the Toledo incident in 2008.)
  
  
• Michigan falls to 19-17-1 when scoring exactly 13 points (we keep doing this lately.  Three of Michigan's four most recent road games have ended up with Michigan scoring 13 points.)
• Michigan moves to 8-13-0 all-time when allowing 31 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 2 games all-time by precisely 18 points, the other example being the 2008 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend.

Blow at High Dough

"Well, I can get behind anything."  Welcome back, Rod Moore (Michigan Athletics)

Well, sometimes the faster it gets

The less you need to know

But you got to remember the smarter it gets

The further it's going to go

--"Blow at High Dough" by The Tragically Hip from their 1989 debut album Up to Here 

Scripted drives, man.  Scripted drives.  Because Michigan won the toss and deferred, Wisconsin got the ball first and went on a 12-play, 75-yard, nearly seven-minute touchdown drive that felt like an absolute harbinger of doom.  Collectively, there was a sense that this was how Fickell planned to win and save his job: a methodical, run-heavy approach, similar to Wisconsin of old, which would bleed the clock, limit possessions, and make Michigan's defense sweat.  Michigan would answer with a tidy five-play 75-yard, two-minute drive to draw back to even on its own scripted drive, and the game settled into an equilibrium that made no one happy.

Several decades of watching not just Michigan football, but college football in general, have given me a false sense of knowing where the doom lurks.  I should know better, but I don't, because fandom is an emotional pursuit for many of us.  I am the person that makes his students mark every time they guess on a test question they had down to two options on the multiple choice because the tendency to believe that you missed all of your 50/50 questions comes from looking for where things go wrong, and forgetting to check for the ones you had down to 50/50 and got correct (it's a version of survivorship bias I would later realize.)

Here's what Wisconsin did in the drives after the scripted one:

• Punt - 6 plays, 22 yards, 2:57
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:45
• Punt - 5 plays, 19 yards, 3:33
• Punt - 3 plays, 8 yards, 2:16
• Punt - 4 plays, 23 yards, 1:35
• Punt - 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:36
• Interception - 3 plays, 31 yards, 1:37*
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 0:57
• Field Goal - 13 plays, 53 yards, 6:41

(*-Did I yell "ROD MOORE!" like six times in a row after the pick because it was just so good to see him back out there and balling again?  You bet!)

Sky McCulley (Michigan Athletics)

Wisconsin never actually threatened Michigan after the scripted drive.  Even the dead cat bounce field goal drive was a mirage, as it took almost seven minutes to complete when they were down 24-7 with 9:24 left in the fourth quarter. If Wisconsin had shown the horses to be able to move the ball well and with assertiveness, they would have done it before the fourth quarter.  So when Channing Goodwin recovered the onside kick attempt by the Badgers, Luke Fickell saw the hand writing on the wall, did not use his timeouts, and Michigan won its clunker, 24-10.

Because the scripted drive came first, and because Michigan could not capitalize on some of its drives, the whole game felt worse than it was —a game with a 99.8% Postgame win expectancy, according to SP+.  However, it's a win; Michigan remains undefeated in conference, Wisconsin continues to spiral toward the likely dismissal of Fickell, and Michigan's path to the playoff has opened up a little more because Penn State could not handle a cross-country trip to previously winless UCLA.  Michigan makes a similar sojourn to Southern California next week (thankfully, Willow Run's runways are more than adequate to handle a charter flight to LA [side eye at Frames]).  All things being equal, if Michigan can secure a win in the Coliseum, it will become a direct path to achieving its goals for the rest of the season.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-10 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Three previous occurrences: 1982 Indiana, 1989 Illinois, and 2001 Purdue (also homecoming))
  
• 111,070 were in attendance for the game, which is not the largest crowd at Michigan Stadium this year, but it is the largest crowd for a Michigan Stadium football event this year.
• Win 1,016
  
  
• Michigan moves to 53-17-1 all-time against the University of Wisconsin.
  
• Michigan moves to 12-5-2 all-time on October 4 (It is Michigan's first win on this date in the 21st century and ends a three-game losing streak of 2003 Iowa, 2008 Illinois, and 2014 Rutgers, the last two of which are among the most infuriating losses in Michigan history in their own way.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 39-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 58-10-1 all-time when allowing 10 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 52 games all-time by precisely 14 points, the most recent example being a 21-7 victory over #24 Michigan State in East Lansing in 2018, which was notable for Devin Bush opening a lawn maintenance service, a rain delay, and DPJ hitting the Bunyan for the first time.