Looking for a Place to Happen

Andrew Marsh had a nice night (Michigan Athletics)

Wayward ho! Away we go

It's a shame to leave this masterpiece

With its gallery gods and its garbage-bag trees

So I'll paint a scene, from memory

So I'd know who murdered me

It's a vain pursuit, but it helps me to sleep

--"Looking for a Place to Happen" by The Tragically Hip, the fifth single from the band's third studio album, Fully Completely 

OK, I'm not happy, but I'm not angry.  I didn't "call it" by any means, but the computers did say this was more than likely to be a USC win, so any belief in Michigan winning was largely vibes-based or hope-centered.  That is not a bad thing, per se, but it was not as simple as Michigan heading out to LA, securing a nice win, and getting into the playoff conversation.  

What I saw yesterday was a team that couldn't tackle and couldn't fit USC's runs.  It was shocking and disappointing.  This would have been a much more of a beatdown on the scoreboard if Michigan had not secured two timely turnovers while USC was driving and in the red zone.  But the reality was, USC looked like they could get whatever they wanted on the ground, Michigan could not finish a tackle to save their lives, and Bryce and company could only do so much, and you end up losing by 18.  

There's not a lot to say that doesn't devolve into complaining about Wink (Michigan isn't going to fire him in season) or being overly pessimistic about the rest of the season.  Washington is a good test this coming weekend, if they can contain the Huskies' QB, it should be a relatively straightforward affair, and if not, well, Michigan hockey looked excellent this past weekend, taking a pair from #6 Providence at their rink.  We'll see how it goes, right?

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 13-31 IS  a Scorigami!  (honestly, did not predict that! A 31-14 loss would not have been, so thanks, Sherrone, for going for two?)
  
• 75,500 were in attendance for the game, which is the smallest crowd to see Michigan play this season.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 5-7-0 all-time against the University of Southern California (all of USC's wins have been in Los Angeles County).
  
• Michigan moves to 17-3-0 all-time on October 11 (Michigan's most recent loss was the Toledo incident in 2008.)
  
  
• Michigan falls to 19-17-1 when scoring exactly 13 points (we keep doing this lately.  Three of Michigan's four most recent road games have ended up with Michigan scoring 13 points.)
• Michigan moves to 8-13-0 all-time when allowing 31 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 2 games all-time by precisely 18 points, the other example being the 2008 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend.

Blow at High Dough

"Well, I can get behind anything."  Welcome back, Rod Moore (Michigan Athletics)

Well, sometimes the faster it gets

The less you need to know

But you got to remember the smarter it gets

The further it's going to go

--"Blow at High Dough" by The Tragically Hip from their 1989 debut album Up to Here 

Scripted drives, man.  Scripted drives.  Because Michigan won the toss and deferred, Wisconsin got the ball first and went on a 12-play, 75-yard, nearly seven-minute touchdown drive that felt like an absolute harbinger of doom.  Collectively, there was a sense that this was how Fickell planned to win and save his job: a methodical, run-heavy approach, similar to Wisconsin of old, which would bleed the clock, limit possessions, and make Michigan's defense sweat.  Michigan would answer with a tidy five-play 75-yard, two-minute drive to draw back to even on its own scripted drive, and the game settled into an equilibrium that made no one happy.

Several decades of watching not just Michigan football, but college football in general, have given me a false sense of knowing where the doom lurks.  I should know better, but I don't, because fandom is an emotional pursuit for many of us.  I am the person that makes his students mark every time they guess on a test question they had down to two options on the multiple choice because the tendency to believe that you missed all of your 50/50 questions comes from looking for where things go wrong, and forgetting to check for the ones you had down to 50/50 and got correct (it's a version of survivorship bias I would later realize.)

Here's what Wisconsin did in the drives after the scripted one:

• Punt - 6 plays, 22 yards, 2:57
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:45
• Punt - 5 plays, 19 yards, 3:33
• Punt - 3 plays, 8 yards, 2:16
• Punt - 4 plays, 23 yards, 1:35
• Punt - 3 plays, 1 yard, 1:05
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:36
• Interception - 3 plays, 31 yards, 1:37*
• Punt - 3 plays, 5 yards, 0:57
• Field Goal - 13 plays, 53 yards, 6:41

(*-Did I yell "ROD MOORE!" like six times in a row after the pick because it was just so good to see him back out there and balling again?  You bet!)

Sky McCulley (Michigan Athletics)

Wisconsin never actually threatened Michigan after the scripted drive.  Even the dead cat bounce field goal drive was a mirage, as it took almost seven minutes to complete when they were down 24-7 with 9:24 left in the fourth quarter. If Wisconsin had shown the horses to be able to move the ball well and with assertiveness, they would have done it before the fourth quarter.  So when Channing Goodwin recovered the onside kick attempt by the Badgers, Luke Fickell saw the hand writing on the wall, did not use his timeouts, and Michigan won its clunker, 24-10.

Because the scripted drive came first, and because Michigan could not capitalize on some of its drives, the whole game felt worse than it was —a game with a 99.8% Postgame win expectancy, according to SP+.  However, it's a win; Michigan remains undefeated in conference, Wisconsin continues to spiral toward the likely dismissal of Fickell, and Michigan's path to the playoff has opened up a little more because Penn State could not handle a cross-country trip to previously winless UCLA.  Michigan makes a similar sojourn to Southern California next week (thankfully, Willow Run's runways are more than adequate to handle a charter flight to LA [side eye at Frames]).  All things being equal, if Michigan can secure a win in the Coliseum, it will become a direct path to achieving its goals for the rest of the season.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-10 IS NOT a Scorigami!  (Three previous occurrences: 1982 Indiana, 1989 Illinois, and 2001 Purdue (also homecoming))
  
• 111,070 were in attendance for the game, which is not the largest crowd at Michigan Stadium this year, but it is the largest crowd for a Michigan Stadium football event this year.
• Win 1,016
  
  
• Michigan moves to 53-17-1 all-time against the University of Wisconsin.
  
• Michigan moves to 12-5-2 all-time on October 4 (It is Michigan's first win on this date in the 21st century and ends a three-game losing streak of 2003 Iowa, 2008 Illinois, and 2014 Rutgers, the last two of which are among the most infuriating losses in Michigan history in their own way.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 39-8-0 when scoring exactly 24 points.
• Michigan moves to 58-10-1 all-time when allowing 10 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 52 games all-time by precisely 14 points, the most recent example being a 21-7 victory over #24 Michigan State in East Lansing in 2018, which was notable for Devin Bush opening a lawn maintenance service, a rain delay, and DPJ hitting the Bunyan for the first time.

Ahead by a Century

Donovan McCulley already knew.  (Rachel Leggett)

"First thing, we'd climb a tree

And maybe then we'd talk

Or sit silently

And listen to our thoughts

With illusions of someday

Cast in a golden light

No dress rehearsal

This is our life."

--"Ahead by a Century" by The Tragically Hip, the lead single from their 1996 album Trouble at the Henhouse

The only road game I was terrified of, on paper, before the season began, was Nebraska.  I had already chalked up Oklahoma to a loss early in the season, on the road, with a freshman quarterback; you just hope for the best, and maybe you get a pleasant surprise, but I wasn't pinning my hopes on that.  USC is a challenge, and Michigan State is always feisty; I take nothing for granted.  However, Nebraska felt like they had a confluence of things, coupled with the second game of the Sherrone suspension, that made this feel like it could be a very silly game that ended in a loss.

And that's where the hornet stung me (That's where the hornet stung me)

And I had a feverish dream (I had a feverish dream)

With revenge and doubt

Tonight, we smoke them out

OK, so the good news is that it was pretty silly, but it didn't end in a loss, no matter how hard Michigan tried to make it one.  And they really did.  So instead of a recap, drive by drive, let's break this down in a "good idea"/"bad idea" style:

Good idea:

• Cole Sullivan gets a one-handed pick, and one play later, Bryce Underwood cashes it in for a 37-yard designed run touchdown. 

Bad idea:

• A coverage bust on Tampa 2 leads to Nebraska's first touchdown.

Good idea:

• A long, largely untouched touchdown run of 75 yards by Justice Haynes stakes Michigan to an early lead. 

Bad idea:

• Someone on the Michigan sideline doesn't understand that with all three timeouts left, even though you're getting the ball back, call a timeout to prevent Nebraska from setting up a free shot at a Hail Mary, which they then cashed in to make it a tied game headed into halftime.

Good idea:

• ZVADA's glorious return turns a potentially disappointing second drive in the second half into points with an absolute bomb from 56 yards out that would have been good from 60+. 

Bad idea:

• Big Ten refs decide that no one ever holds Michigan's terrifying pass rush.

Good idea:

• A second long, largely untouched touchdown run of 54 yards by Jordan Marshall pushes Michigan's lead back out to 10 points. 

Bad idea:

• After forcing a 4th and 17, Brandyn Hillman draws an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for making the catch signal at the Nebraska bench, thus "taunting," and Nebraska marches down the field for a field goal to bring it back within 7.

Good idea:

• Michigan remembers how to boa constrictor teams like the Harbaugh era, turning in a 16-play, 77-yard drive that nearly saw Bryce run in another, but instead saw another Zvada field goal to go up 30-20.

Bad idea:

• Michigan plays bend don't break defense, nearly getting off the field, but giving up a pass interference (probably a good one, honestly), and nearly getting Hillman suspended for Wisconsin with a targeting call that could have gone either way, and eventually seeing Nebraska score a TD to bring it back within 3.

Good idea:

• Kendrick Bell shows that good hands run in the family, high points the Nebraska onside kick, gets down, and Michigan can kneel it out in victory formation and win their sixth straight Big Ten opener and survive the Sherrone suspension with a 2-0 record, and a 3-1 overall record heading into a bye week before homecoming with Wisconsin.

They don't ask how; they just ask how many, and Michigan is a team that really needs to clean up the details.  However, for this game, they had the talent to overcome some foolish decisions and mind-boggling mind slips to win a Big Ten road game.  

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 30-27 IS (somehow) a Scorigami!  (We didn't believe it either.)
  
• 87,278 were in attendance for the game, which is a standard issue Nebraska game at Memorial Stadium.
• Win 1,015
  
  
• Michigan moves to 9-4-1 all-time against the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
  
• Michigan moves to 4-3-1 all-time on September 20 (There's a 1980 Notre Dame loss in there, the 2003 Oregon game, and the 2014 Utah game as the Hoke era collapse began in earnest)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 11-1-0 when scoring exactly 30 points (lone loss 1988 Miami).
• Michigan moves to 7-15-0 all-time when allowing 27 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has won 51 games all-time by precisely 3 points, the most recent example being a 13-10 victory over #2 Ohio State in Columbus in 2024, which you may have heard about.

Grace, Too

"Armed with skill and its frustration, and grace, too" (Michigan Photography)

But I can guarantee

There'll be no knock on the door

I'm total pro

That's what I'm here for

--"Grace, Too" by The Tragically Hip from their 1994 album Day for Night 

(Before we get started, allow me to send you over to YouTube where you can check out yesterday's fantastic MMB halftime performance of songs from Wicked.)

One of the most challenging things about a college football season is the lack of gameplay datapoints.  A couple of weeks into a baseball season, you wouldn't have a lot of data, but you would feel like you might have something to work with.  But just two weeks into a college football season, it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions.  However, coaching staffs have to do so because the season is so short; you cannot afford not to. You have to make adjustments, even when things are going well.

It was heartening that New Mexico went into the Rose Bowl and soundly beat a UCLA team on Friday night.  That UCLA team might be utterly dreadful, and DeShaun Foster has already been fired by Sunday morning, but seeing that New Mexico might be a better-than-average Mountain West team made me feel a little better about Michigan in Week 1.  But the concerns were still there for Week 3: how would Michigan respond to what everyone agreed was a lackluster performance in Norman, and how would Michigan play without Sherrone at the helm because of the school's self-imposed two-game suspension?  Answers would be forthcoming.

The secret rules of engagement
Are hard to endorse
When the appearance of conflict
Meets the appearance of force

The Michigan offense looked fully operational in all facets of the game yesterday.  A 10-play, 75-yard drive that ended with a Justice Haynes touchdown, a 6-play drive that ended with a textbook perfect Underwood to Morgan 32-yard touchdown pass.  A missed field goal by Zvada was somewhat troubling, but Michigan stormed right back after Central Michigan's punt with a 77-yard drive that included three "explosives," the last of which was Bryce Underwood running the ball in, to the loud approbation of the Big House crowd.  Central deserves credit for going for it on 4th and 1 on their own 34, but Michigan got the stop and immediately cashed it in two plays later on an Andrew Marsh end-around run.  Even a Bryce Underwood pick didn't dampen the mood, as in some quarters, it was like "OK, but he was throwing a deep ball, it's good to know they have that in the playbook," and it only ended in a Central Michigan field goal.  Michigan then executed a fantastic two-minute drill that covered 79 yards in less than 120 seconds and ended with a Jordan Marshall touchdown, making up for the one he had called back earlier on a penalty.  

The second half was largely academic, two touchdowns in the third on longish drives, a Michigan interception leading to a TD drive, a CMU fumble leading to a Michigan TD drive, and that was pretty much all there was.  This was an "It's hard to find things to be critical of" type of game that you want to see out of Michigan against a MAC opponent.

What it boiled down to was that Michigan fans wanted to see Bryce without training wheels ahead of next week's Big Ten opener in Lincoln.  They got it, and then some.  There were Bryce laser throws, there were Bryce rollouts and passes on a rail, there were designed runs for Mr. Underwood, and there were Bryce escapes that turned plays that were dead to rights into something, and occasionally, something more.  The defense looked much more together than it had at any point in the season, MAC caveats applied, and the team did not seem to be at a loss without Moore running the show. No one rational overreacted to last week as much as there were just general calls for doing more and doing better, and it worked, for at least one game.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 63-3 is NOT a Scorigami (63-3 was the score of 2016 Hawai'i, which means those two wins are the largest margins of victory at Michigan Stadium in the last 50 years.)
  
• 110,740 were in attendance for the game, the 88th largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.
• Win 1,014
  
  
• Michigan moves to 5-0-0 all-time against Central Michigan University.
  
• Michigan moves to 7-1-0 all-time on September 13 (The lone loss was to Notre Dame in South Bend in 2008.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 12-0-0 when scoring exactly 63 points.
• Michigan moves to 49-3-3 all-time when allowing 3 points to the opposition.
• Michigan won 3 games all-time by precisely 60 points, the aforementioned 63-3 games and 60-0 over Indiana in 1902.

At The Hundredth Meridian

For one brief moment at the start of the second half, there was a glimmer of hope. (Michigan Athletics)

Me debunk an American myth?

And take my life in my hands?

Where the great plains begin

At the hundredth meridian

At the hundredth meridian

Where the great plains begin

--"At the Hundredth Meridian" by The Tragically Hip from their 1992 album Fully Completely

On the surface, there are many reasons to fret about a 24-13 loss to a top-20 team on the road in week two.  Michigan wasn't aggressive enough; Michigan didn't let Bryce Underwood use his athletic gifts to their fullest; Michigan's offensive line is suspect, especially for one on a team whose HC is an OL guy.  There is validity in all of these things.  But it is a matter of degrees, and primarily whether this loss is somehow a referendum on where Michigan is or where Michigan will be.

I told myself that every possible outcome for this game, save Michigan blowing out the Sooners, was in play.  But I do find myself surprised that Michigan won the turnover battle and was kept in the game by a couple of critical Oklahoma miscues, but still never really threatened in this matchup.  A Brett Venables defense looked like that of Venables' past, confusing, confounding, especially with an 18-year-old starting in his first road game.  While there were a few nice moments, like Justice Haynes long TD run to start the second half, it was mostly an exercise in frustration.

If I die of vanity, promise me, promise me

They bury me some place I don't want to be

You'll dig me up and transport me, unceremoniously

Away from the swollen city-breeze, garbage bag trees

Whispers of disease and the acts of enormity

And lower me slowly, sadly, and properly

Get Ry Cooder to sing my eulogy

My only other takeaway from this game is that John Mateer played the kind of game for a college quarterback that you absolutely love to watch as a neutral and that you loathe deeply when he's playing the team you're rooting for.  To wit, at some point in the second half:

So, end of story, Michigan takes its first loss of the season, comes home to face the Chippewas, and hopes they can get a bunch of starters healthy ahead of the trip to Nebraska.  Will Sherrone take his two weeks of university-imposed exile to examine what needs to be better?  We can only hope.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 24-13 IS a Scorigami (we initially thought that 2011 Iowa was also 24-13, but it turns out that the score had been recorded incorrectly in the database at the Bentley.  We have alerted them.)
  
• 84,107 were in attendance for Michigan's first-ever regular-season game against the Sooners and its first-ever game in the state of Oklahoma.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 0-2-0 all-time against the University of Oklahoma.
  
• Michigan moves to 2-2-0 all-time on September 6 (The other loss was to 2014 Notre Dame on the road that ended the long "no shutouts against" streak.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 19-16-1 when scoring exactly 13 points (as Hockeybear pointed out, the last time Michigan scored 13 points, we were all ecstatic).
• Michigan moves to 19-19-0 all-time when allowing 24 points to the opposition (including 2023's victory over Ohio State).
• Michigan has lost 10 games all-time by precisely 13 points, the four most recent examples were all to Ohio State, 1970, 2007, 2009, 2017.

Fully Completely

"And Justice for all."  (Michigan Athletics)

Bring me back in shackles

Hang me long out in the sun

Exonerate me

Forget about me

--"Fully Completely" by The Tragically Hip, the title track of their 1993 album.

It was clear from reading all of the previews of Michigan football this summer that no one was quite sure what the 2025 Michigan team would be.  They knew there would be an upgrade at quarterback, a potential step back on defense because of the losses of Johnson, Graham, and Grant, but maybe not, and some unknowns with a new OC, etc.  It was a mystery box of mixed expectations, essentially agreeing that Michigan was a top-20ish team that, if things broke right, could slip into the College Football Playoff.

So when toe met leather for a prime time matchup with a Mountain West team, the biggest question immediately answered was "How was Bryce Underwood going to look?"  Just the fourth true freshman to start at quarterback in Michigan history, the jokes about things like that he wasn't even legally permitted to buy lottery tickets and fireworks until two weeks ago were plentiful.  But they were masking the hope that he would live up to, and perhaps exceed, the hype.

A strong running game, featuring Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, was a great place to start.  After a couple of quick screen passes and an incompletion that was primarily because it came in too hot for Channing Goodwin, Haynes broke one for 56 yards and a touchdown, and things felt right and good.  Michigan's defense forced a three-and-out, followed by a much more pedestrian, workmanlike, but clock-eating touchdown drive, putting Michigan up 14-0 before the first quarter was over.  Some exchanges of punts between the teams occurred before a TJ Guy interception that led to a field goal and a 17-0 lead, and they were cruising.

And then what can only be described as "the bullshit" settled in.

New Mexico would empty out the playbook, using a classic college script, while Michigan played some backups on defense for reps and ran an audacious (and honestly, pretty cool) trick play to score a touchdown.  OK, that happens.  Sure.

Then Andrew Marsh reminded the crowd that, as talented as freshmen can be, they're also still freshmen, fumbling a kick return while he attempted to hurdle a Lobo, and New Mexico looked like they could go into the half only down three.  However, Michigan's defense was stout, allowing New Mexico just two yards before forcing a field goal to cut Michigan's lead to 17-10.

You could be forgiven if, given Michigan's recent struggles with things like tempo and urgency, on late in the half drives, you didn't think the two-minute drill would amount to much, especially with Bryce helming it in his debut effort.  You would especially be forgiven when the first two plays of the drive resulted in a pair of two-yard losses.  But after a New Mexico timeout, Michigan dialed up an absolute beauty of a play, a 39-yard catch and run from Channing Goodwin to the New Mexico 40 and a complete reset of the expectations for the drive.  Sure enough, six plays later, Underwood would find his favorite target, Marlin Klein, for a 15-yard TD pass, and Michigan was back up by 14 headed into halftime.

I ponder the endlessness of the stars
Ignoring said same of my father
Either it'll move me
Or it'll move right through me
Fully and completely 

Coming out of halftime, and after forcing a four-and-out from the Lobos, Michigan's drive stalled and resulted in a field goal, pushing the lead back to 17.  And then the serious business of bullshittery happened.

No one knows what targeting is, but I am reasonably sure that what was called on Jaishawn Barham's exceptional blind side sack of New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne was not it.  I am willing to concede that it was not a fumble, negating the scoop and score, but it was not targeting, except that somehow, without a flag on the field, it was.  Barham was ejected and excluded from the first half in Norman (hopefully not), and the Lobos proceeded on one of the most "fueled by referee decision making" drives you will ever see (the pass interference on the goal to go was fine, everything else, no.)

OK, so Michigan, just get the ball back and score, and...nope, three-and-out, and even with a ten-point lead headed into the fourth, all of this feels tenuous.  Thankfully, Brandyn Hillman, he of the excellent quote about flipping the switch because New Mexico had the same colors as [expletive] Ohio State, remember the Jourdan Lewis rule, yes, you probably should have knocked it down.  Still, interceptions are so much more mentally taxing.  Justice Haynes paid off the field position situation with another long run that was inches away from being a 60-yard TD run, but instead was a 59-yard run, followed by a 1-yard TD run for his third score of the night, Michigan back up by 17.  Cole Sullivan gets Michigan's third pick of the night, and even as the Lobos tried to cobble together a late TD drive, including calling a timeout with three seconds left to try and tack on a meaningless late score, only to see Layne get sacked by Troy Bowles to put that to rest, Michigan wins 34-17.

I do not think any of us can draw meaningful conclusions about this season from one game.  Michigan looked good in some respects, sloppy in others, and incomplete in still others.  It's a fool's errand to try to figure out what you have after one game, win or lose.  But next week in Norman, GameDay is coming to town for a prime-time matchup with the Sooners in a helmet game, which should tell us a whole lot more. They can get it done, but as always, it starts in the doing.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 34-17 is NOT a Scorigami as it has happened twice before (1995 Indiana being the most recent iteration).
  
• 110,648 were in attendance for the season opener, the 96th largest announced crowd in Michigan Stadium history.
  
  
• Michigan moves to 1-0-0 all-time against the University of New Mexico.
  
• Michigan moves to 8-1-0 all-time on August 30 (The loss was to 2015 Utah on the road in Harbaugh's debut.)
  
  
• Michigan improves to 39-0-0 when scoring exactly 34 points (I'll need to conduct further research, but this might be Michigan's most wins without a loss for any particular score).
• Michigan moves to 38-17-2 all-time when allowing 17 points to the opposition (including 2024's victory over Michigan State).
• Michigan has won 29 games all-time by precisely 17 points, most recently in the 2019 Illinois game.