Cast No Shadow

On Senior Day, Donovan made his way into the end zone one more time at the Big House (Michigan Athletics)

"Bound with all the weight of all the words he tried to say

Chained to all the places that he never wished to stay

Bound with all the weight of all the words he tried to say

As he faced the sun he cast no shadow."

 --"Cast No Shadow" by Oasis, from their 1995 album (What's the Story) Morning Glory

So much of sports fandom comes down to expectations and how reality plays out against that backdrop.  While by no means or shape am I a gambler, I find Vegas lines interesting as a thought exercise by people who want to make money on an outcome think the game will go.  For many years, I did the fun exercise of going through the schedule pre-season and figuring out the record (I stopped doing this after 2007 taught me that nothing makes sense.)  But, freed from expectations because of last year's team, I ended up doing it again this season and landed on 9-3 with losses to Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State.

That version of me did not know how dire things were in the quarterback room.

But expectations, even recalibrated ones, can still haunt us as we watch games.  So when the score was 10-6 with just under two minutes left in the first half, I think the mood in the stadium was dour at best.  Michigan fans had told themselves that the Oregon and Indiana games were a wash, but if Michigan just beat Northwestern, they would be bowl eligible and that would be enough for what otherwise felt like a lost season.  And in that moment, it felt like that was slipping away.

So when Michigan figured out how to put together an 11 play, 65-yard two minute drill, much of which fell under "don't think, just do" and ending with a Colston Loveland TD catch, the mood suddenly shifted back to "OK, it's under control."

I did not expect a 31 point explosion from the offense in the second half (as well as a bonus two points from a "I committed intentional grounding in the end zone and all I got was called for a lousy safety") from this Michigan offense.  Sometimes is was an explosive run by Kalel Mullings as part of his three touchdown day, sometimes it was taking advantage of short fields generated by special teams or a timely pick.  But to the point, Michigan didn't do anything fancy against an admittedly overmatched Northwestern team, but they did execute and it paid off.

We all know what lies ahead in the week to come.  It will not be anything like the last three years but that's OK, that was the expectation from the drop.  And who knows, sports are designed to defy expectations every so often.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 50-6 is a Scorigami!
• 109,830 were in attendance (884,382 for the home season, an average of 110,548, so that should allow Michigan to keep the attendance crown for another year.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 60-15-2 all-time against Northwestern University.
• Michigan moves to 11-7-0 all-time on November 23 (There's a lot of Ohio State games I there.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 7-0-0 when scoring exactly 50 points.
• Michigan moves to 84-5-4 all-time when allowing 6 points to the opposition (Michigan once beat Northwestern 74-6, so there's precedent here.)
• Michigan has won 7 games all-time by precisely 44 points, most recently, the 2022 Colorado State game.

Don't Look Back in Anger

It's not necessarily a metaphor, BUT... (Michigan Athletics)

"Slip inside the eye of your mind
Don't you know you might find
A better place to play?
You said that you'd never been
But all the things that you've seen
Slowly fade away"

--"Don't Look Back in Anger" by Oasis, the fourth single off of the 1995 album (What’s The Story) Morning Glory?

I don't really think there's that much left to be said about this season.  The most interesting thing about this game was that Michigan was in it for far longer than I think anyone nationally or locally expected.  A full credit to the Michigan defense for stepping up in a spot despite still being without Will Johnson.  Holding a very explosive Indiana team to 246 yards and 20 points feels like an accomplishment and one that a team with even a moderately functional offense could have taken advantage of in some way to secure the win.

But when Zeke Berry gives you the utter gift of an early third quarter interception at the IU 7 and you move the ball exactly four yards with an uninspired set of run calls, forcing you to settle for a field goal, well, it wasn't the harbinger that this was not going to be your day, but it does not help.  The reality is reasonable to see in the quantum reality where Michigan gets a touchdown there.  Now it's 17-10 Indiana.  Michigan still gets its field goal (17-13 IU) and on the touchdown, doesn't go for 2, they kick the extra points and Michigan takes a 21-17 lead.  When Indiana gets the ball back, now they have to drive the field for a touchdown, and maybe they do, and maybe they don't, they really had not been under that kind of pressure all year, but maybe Michigan finds a way to pull it off.  But it was not to be.  It's all the same problems, but with new and maddening wrinkles, like Sherrone Moore's failure to immediately call a time out after the first Lawson run when Indiana was in run out the clock mode.  Mistakes are being made all over the team and it's so frustrating, especially because this team is not good enough to overcome basic mistakes.

But a week off and a now titanic Big House showdown with a likely 4-6 Northwestern team that will, more than likely, be coming off a loss to Ohio State at Wrigley in order to see if Michigan can get bowl eligible.  It's the reality that has been staring Michigan in the face since the conclusion of the Washington game and knowing it's the truth does not make it any less frustrating.  We'll just have to hope Michigan can put enough together against the Wildcats to squeak into the post-season.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 20-15 is not a Scorigami, this is the third occurrence, joining 1959 Missouri and 1967.)
• 53,082 were in attendance (the largest Memorial Stadium crowd for a Michigan/Indiana game ever.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 62-11 all-time against Indiana University.
• Michigan moves to 11-8-0 all-time on November 9 (the previous November 9 losses include 2013 Nebraska, 1996 at Purdue, and a 4-0 loss to Harvard in 1895.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 7-9-0 when scoring exactly 15 points.
• Michigan moves to 24-21-1 all-time when allowing 20 points to the opposition.
• Michigan has lost 11 games all-time by precisely 5 points, most recently, the 2012 Ohio State game, where we learned Brady Hoke teams had a weird knack for keeping it close against superior Ohio State teams.
  

 

Going Nowhere

Hey, the band's still good! (Michigan Athletics)

Here am I, going nowhere on a train

Here am I, growing older in the rain

--"Going Nowhere," by Oasis, the B-Side to the 1998 single "Stand By Me" 

It is an old but somehow familiar feeling that I had heading into this past weekend's Michigan football game against #1 in the nation, the Ducks of Oregon. It had been admittedly several years since I walked into Michigan Stadium and thought, "OK, let's just keep it close. Maybe some weird things happen, and we're in it." Then I found out Michigan was down both of its starting cornerbacks and well, there went that.

It was so academic that the lighter turnout in the student section had me checking my CFB scores app frequently to see what was actually happening in Georgia/Florida. I watched Indiana roar back on MSU with 47 unanswered points, knowing that Michigan is heading to Bloomington next week.

Some interesting things did happen in this game.  Interesting doesn't always mean good, but Michigan getting a muffed punt turned into excellent field position to score was certainly interesting.  The Big Ten not reviewing Oregon's first touchdown was certainly interesting.  The fourth down call that ended up with Semaj Morgan throwing a pass to Alex Orji, where Orji ended up running into a CBS camera, was certainly interesting.  But mostly, this looked pretty much like what anyone who had been watching this team all year expected, disorganized and disjointed offensive play calling, defensive choices that allowed busts to happen, and the best team in the country looking like it when it counted.  (I don't mind the last Oregon touchdown.  Perception matters to the committee, and a three-score win looks better than a two-score win.  Besides, Michigan should have stopped them if they didn't want them to score.)

The Washington game gave Michigan the benefit of shattering anyone's illusions about this year's team, and for that, I am grateful.  I do wonder what Michigan would have done against Indiana's schedule to this point, probably 7-2, potentially flipping the MSU and Washington results due to venue, but you play the schedule that the league assigns you (or that your athletic department sets up to try and make for interesting non-conference games that aren't just G5 games.)  Indiana has done virtually everything right this year and has shown one very powerful thing, you can bring a winning culture in with the portal.  Michigan's transition costs from Harbaugh and from winning the national championship were very high, but I think fans would accept the results every time.  (A slightly buzzed Ducks fan leaving Section 7 gave me a pat on the shoulder and said, "You won the national title last year, man.  Someone asked me how long I would be willing to suck to win a Natty, and I said, 'Fifteen years.' so this is nothing, man."  Oregon fans were, by and large, boisterous and positive, and I did not really encounter any jerk behavior on their part.)

If the viewing experience has gotten worse at Michigan Stadium this year, it's because I've been surrounded by more buzzed or drunk fans than at any point in my life.  It's not my place to say Michigan shouldn't have introduced this lucrative revenue stream to the Big House, but it's been kind of a bummer to have folks just saying whatever comes to their mind and expect you to have a full-on conversation with them during game action.  But I am an old man and just one season ticket holder, so my voice will not matter that much.

They're off to Indiana to see what happens next.

Tales from the Spreadsheet

• 38-17 is a Scorigami (meaning in Rodger Sherman parlance, this was a Fetty Wapping, though not a true one because Michigan was the home team.  However, on the Michigan Stadium scorebug, it was, so your mileage may vary.)
• 110,576 were in attendance (the 98th-largest crowd in Michigan Stadium history.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 3-3-0 all-time against the University of Oregon.
• Michigan moves to 13-3-2 all-time on November 2 (the previous November 2 losses were to Yale in the disastrous 1881 season and to Michigan State in EL in 2013, where Brady Hoke famously said he would have a good assessment of what this team was like...after Week 10.)
  
  
• Michigan moves to 18-17-2 when scoring exactly 17 points.
• Michigan moves to 0-8 all-time when allowing 38 points to the opposition (hey, remember the last time Indiana beat Michigan. Yeah, that was 38-21).
• Michigan has lost 7 games all-time by precisely 21 points, most recently, the 2019 Wisconsin game, where things just felt completely and totally out of sorts.
• Michigan has now played 22 games against AP #1 at the kickoff (the first was Northwestern in 1936? OK, who knew? Anyway...). Michigan is now 3-18-1 in those games. Their first-ever win over AP #1 at the time of kick was the 1969 Ohio State game. They also beat #1 Notre Dame in 1981 and #1 Miami in 1984. The most recent game against #1 at kick was 2019 Ohio State, and I don't want to think about it.)